Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Stormpc]

Everything still moving NW overnight on ALL guidance.  Peninsula now in the game for a few inches. Southside in good shape down thru NE NC. Plenty cold for once. Fun overrunning event shaping up. 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Stormpc said:

Everything still moving NW overnight on ALL guidance.  Peninsula now in the game for a few inches. Southside in good shape down thru NE NC. Plenty cold for once. Fun overrunning event shaping up. 

Looks  very good for NE NC and southside

[Stormpc]

One thing of note. Our temperature and dew point haven't plummeted like areas just west and north. I am at 24/16 with a ripping North wind gusting near 30. Dew points were supposed to be closer to lower single digits but that never happened... unless that dry air filters in here during the next six to eight hours. There won't be much to do to moisten up the column along the coast if this holds tho. 

[RIC Airport]

12z 3K NAM just finished, still looking good for Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Wakefield issued advisories for southside Hampton Roads early this morning, but then farther west a few hour ago to include Newport News, Hampton, Isle of Wight and Southampton. Also, interior NE NC counties were added. 

 

[Stormpc]

Everything looks pretty consistent on bringing a 1-5 inch storm into the area from Williamsburg to the south and east. But you never know where these Northern fronto bands end up. There's been a nose of higher reflectivity showing up on most of the meso models streaking from Northeast North Carolina in through the peninsula that has to be watched.

[Stormpc]

You also have to love that bay enhancement in Norfolk through chesapeake.

[RIC Airport]

5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Everything looks pretty consistent on bringing a 1-5 inch storm into the area from Williamsburg to the south and east. But you never know where these Northern fronto bands end up. There's been a nose of higher reflectivity showing up on most of the meso models streaking from Northeast North Carolina in through the peninsula that has to be watched.

Yup, the 13z HRRR had a nice uptick, even from the 12z run, over southside and interior parts of NC. I think AKQ's expansion of the advisories was spot on, taken this into account. 

[chris624wx]

Seriously got whiplash from going from bone dry modeling to this in 24 hours. Glad I went and got some groceries yesterday before everyone starts rushing in today!

[RIC Airport]

12 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

You also have to love that bay enhancement in Norfolk through chesapeake.

It's always cool to see that, especially when it benefits northern Virginia Beach during snowstorms. 

[ldub23]

24 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Seriously got whiplash from going from bone dry modeling to this in 24 hours. Glad I went and got some groceries yesterday before everyone starts rushing in today!

Its  possible the southside should  have a warning

[RIC Airport]

QPF totals on the 12z GFS are virtually the same for Hampton Roads and NE NC as the last 2-3 runs. However, the latest runs have expanded the precip shield farther west into Central VA.

[EverythingisEverything]

56 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Seriously got whiplash from going from bone dry modeling to this in 24 hours. Glad I went and got some groceries yesterday before everyone starts rushing in today!

I'm heading out to the grocery store about noon time.   I want to make some chili. 

[EverythingisEverything]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

QPF totals on the 12z GFS are virtually the same for Hampton Roads and NE NC as the last 2-3 runs. However, the latest runs have expanded the precip shield farther west into Central VA.

Wow, the outer banks really cashing in. 

[Stormpc]

13 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said:

Wow, the outer banks really cashing in. 

Looks like it but I don't think I'd want to be south of Kill Devil Hills. I think Nags Head down through Manteo and South toward Hatteras has a chance of mixing with sleet. I was looking earlier/last night and there's a warm nose that gets really close. But if it doesn't and they have ratios, look out. Someone might cash in with 8 in or so. That would be something.

[wasnow215]

@RIC AirportI let people know for travel purposes and other things about snow- do you think I should mention there's like a 25% chance Richmond Metro could see up to a half inch to an inch of snow this evening?

[SnowBeach]

WSW upgrades for Southside HR. 
 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

VAZ095-097-098-220130-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.W.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1800Z/
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  4 inches. Localized amounts up to 5 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Portsmouth.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

[chris624wx]

1 minute ago, SnowBeach said:

WSW upgrades for Southside HR. 
 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

VAZ095-097-098-220130-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.W.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1800Z/
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  4 inches. Localized amounts up to 5 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Portsmouth.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

Let's go!

[RIC Airport]

 

12 minutes ago, SnowBeach said:

WSW upgrades for Southside HR. 
 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

VAZ095-097-098-220130-
/O.UPG.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KAKQ.WS.W.0003.250121T2200Z-250122T1800Z/
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  4 inches. Localized amounts up to 5 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Portsmouth.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Call 511 for road information.

&&

$$

10 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Let's go!

Excellent, I had a feeling they would upgrade the southside!!!

 

Also, the latest Euro increased QPF across the region. The 6z run 0.12" for ORF, now it's up to 0.20". 

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

@RIC AirportI let people know for travel purposes and other things about snow- do you think I should mention there's like a 25% chance Richmond Metro could see up to a half inch to an inch of snow this evening?

Yeah, I think a coating to a half inch is certainly possible, especially south and east of the city. RIC is still 21°F at noon, anything that falls later this evening will stick right away. I would be more concerned about dry air and virga the farther north and west you go.

[chris624wx]

From AKQ's AFD:

[Stormpc]

DT has a pretty aggressive map he released a few hours ago

[Sernest14]

Short ranges creeping a little more NW.  radar and snow reports also more north and north west compared to short range

[RIC Airport]

27 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Short ranges creeping a little more NW.  radar and snow reports also more north and north west compared to short range

Here are the 18Z HRRR and 3K NAM runs. The 3k has been pretty aggressive. Will be interesting to see which short range model performs the best.

 

HRRR

 

3K NAM

 

[chris624wx]

20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Here are the 18Z HRRR and 3K NAM runs. The 3k has been pretty aggressive. Will be interesting to see which short range model performs the best.

 

HRRR

 

3K NAM

 

Hugging the 3K NAM haha 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Hugging the 3K NAM haha 

I'm gonna be real clear with this and I'm not trying to be melodramatic. I've never ever seen the HRRR end up verifying. Even within four hours. So it makes way more sense to hug 3K NAM

[chris624wx]

-- Changed Discussion --

As of 320 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Accumulating snow is expected across Northeast North Carolina and Southeast Virginia tonight. - A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach. - Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Northeast North Carolina east of the Chowan River, with Winter Weather Advisories from interior northeast North Carolina to the rest of southeast Virginia. - Additional Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Afternoon wx analysis shows a broad, positively tilted trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico (with impressive snowfall amounts along the Gulf coast), while Arctic high pressure resides from TX to the Mid MS River Valley. Locally, it is very cold with temps only in the mid 20s under BKN-OVC mid level clouds on the east side of the trough axis. There are actually a few light radar echoes in the Piedmont, but this is obviously not reaching the ground yet as the low-levels are extremely dry. The shortwave trough is progged to sharpen a bit as it approaches and crosses the area late this evening through early Wednesday morning...while low pressure tracks NE well off the southeast/Carolina coast. By this evening (as the shortwave approaches), mid-level WAA will increase area-wide. In addition, model cross sections continue to depict favorable sloping frontogenesis with vertical ascent within the DGZ. This would normally provide enough forcing for ascent to result in widespread light to moderate snow. However, the low-levels will initially be very dry with cold/dry advection continuing overnight. So, the main forecast challenge will is figuring out how far north the snow will be able to reach the ground. While there will likely be a rather sharp cutoff with no snow NW and 1-2" of snow only 30-50 miles to the SE, the 12z models have trended farther north and confidence has increased enough to upgrade Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and VA Beach to the Winter Storm Warning. While there could be a few hours worth of snow resulting in very minor (~0.5") accums near and just to the north of an Emporia-Williamsburg-Ocean City line...the dry air likely wins out here (and especially farther NW).

Farther to the SE (especially toward the coast), expect several hours worth of light to moderate snow beginning between 6-9 PM and ending from NW-SE early Wed AM. Given the cold temps, SLRs likely reach 15-20:1 which will likely result in 3-4" of accumulation in most of NE NC and in Norfolk/VA Beach. 4-5" totals are expected in Camden/Currituck Counties. Will have to watch for localized higher totals in Norfolk/Portsmouth/Chesapeake/VA Beach due to moisture enhancement form northerly flow off the Ches. Bay. Winter Wx Advisories are in effect for 1-3" of expected snow from interior NE NC to the Peninsula/VA Eastern Shore. Even in areas just outside the advisory, snow will accumulate efficiently (even on roadways) given cold/dry ground. The synoptic snow should end by 3 AM in SE VA and 5 AM in NE NC. The vast majority of the winter headlines are from 5 PM this aftn through 7 AM Wednesday. However, have run the warnings through 18z/1 PM for Norfolk/Chesapeake/VA Beach given the possibility of some additional (highly localized) minor accums from bay effect snowfall through the morning after the synoptic snow ends. Low temperatures tonight drop into the upper single digits NW, to around 20F SE, with wind chills from around 0F NW to around 10F SE. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from late tonight into Wednesday morning.

 

Updated AFD from AKQ this afternoon

[SnowBeach]

6 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

-- Changed Discussion --

As of 320 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Accumulating snow is expected across Northeast North Carolina and Southeast Virginia tonight. - A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and Virginia Beach. - Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Northeast North Carolina east of the Chowan River, with Winter Weather Advisories from interior northeast North Carolina to the rest of southeast Virginia. - Additional Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Afternoon wx analysis shows a broad, positively tilted trough stretching from the Great Lakes to Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure continues to deepen in the Gulf of Mexico (with impressive snowfall amounts along the Gulf coast), while Arctic high pressure resides from TX to the Mid MS River Valley. Locally, it is very cold with temps only in the mid 20s under BKN-OVC mid level clouds on the east side of the trough axis. There are actually a few light radar echoes in the Piedmont, but this is obviously not reaching the ground yet as the low-levels are extremely dry. The shortwave trough is progged to sharpen a bit as it approaches and crosses the area late this evening through early Wednesday morning...while low pressure tracks NE well off the southeast/Carolina coast. By this evening (as the shortwave approaches), mid-level WAA will increase area-wide. In addition, model cross sections continue to depict favorable sloping frontogenesis with vertical ascent within the DGZ. This would normally provide enough forcing for ascent to result in widespread light to moderate snow. However, the low-levels will initially be very dry with cold/dry advection continuing overnight. So, the main forecast challenge will is figuring out how far north the snow will be able to reach the ground. While there will likely be a rather sharp cutoff with no snow NW and 1-2" of snow only 30-50 miles to the SE, the 12z models have trended farther north and confidence has increased enough to upgrade Norfolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, and VA Beach to the Winter Storm Warning. While there could be a few hours worth of snow resulting in very minor (~0.5") accums near and just to the north of an Emporia-Williamsburg-Ocean City line...the dry air likely wins out here (and especially farther NW).

Farther to the SE (especially toward the coast), expect several hours worth of light to moderate snow beginning between 6-9 PM and ending from NW-SE early Wed AM. Given the cold temps, SLRs likely reach 15-20:1 which will likely result in 3-4" of accumulation in most of NE NC and in Norfolk/VA Beach. 4-5" totals are expected in Camden/Currituck Counties. Will have to watch for localized higher totals in Norfolk/Portsmouth/Chesapeake/VA Beach due to moisture enhancement form northerly flow off the Ches. Bay. Winter Wx Advisories are in effect for 1-3" of expected snow from interior NE NC to the Peninsula/VA Eastern Shore. Even in areas just outside the advisory, snow will accumulate efficiently (even on roadways) given cold/dry ground. The synoptic snow should end by 3 AM in SE VA and 5 AM in NE NC. The vast majority of the winter headlines are from 5 PM this aftn through 7 AM Wednesday. However, have run the warnings through 18z/1 PM for Norfolk/Chesapeake/VA Beach given the possibility of some additional (highly localized) minor accums from bay effect snowfall through the morning after the synoptic snow ends. Low temperatures tonight drop into the upper single digits NW, to around 20F SE, with wind chills from around 0F NW to around 10F SE. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from late tonight into Wednesday morning.

 

Updated AFD from AKQ this afternoon

Let”s bring it home here in HR!

[Stormpc]

Now the whole Bay effect enhancement has me intrigued. That would be really neat. I think there's going to be two jackpot zones. One either across the lower side of the peninsulas, around Norfolk and Portsmouth to Virginia Beach and the other likely closer to Kitty Hawk down through Columbia, west to Plymouth North Carolina. Just my hunch 

[chris624wx]

Tim Pandajis' latest post

[EverythingisEverything]

I know one thing, It is so cold out there.   Definitely feels like snow. 

[chris624wx]

2 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said:

I know one thing, It is so cold out there.   Definitely feels like snow. 

Especially with the wind!