RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. Gives us a decent chance for decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Stormpc said: It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good. Winter 4 without a snowstorm. Rain tomorrow then useless nothing cold then warm up and rain friday. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, ldub23 said: Winter 4 without a snowstorm. Rain tomorrow then useless nothing cold then warm up and rain friday. Awesome It’s not even February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 No way I'm cutting you guys out down there for Tuesday/Wednesday. Stick to the ensembles til tomorrow night for all the models. And not just because they're not showing and such that I'm saying that- it's showing good snow for Friday and I don't buy that on one model yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Friday system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 45 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: No way I'm cutting you guys out down there for Tuesday/Wednesday. Stick to the ensembles til tomorrow night for all the models. And not just because they're not showing and such that I'm saying that- it's showing good snow for Friday and I don't buy that on one model yet either. Its FAR from resolved. The BOMB is no longer in play but a nice event isn't lost, yet. Tomorrow's storm isn't even clear yet. Not over yet! Tuesday night is still a ways away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Its FAR from resolved. The BOMB is no longer in play but a nice event isn't lost, yet. Tomorrow's storm isn't even clear yet. Not over yet! Tuesday night is still a ways away. Exactly! We've seen bigger turnarounds for sure with weather events in our favor and against Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Friday system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: One of these has to hit for us down here...surely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, chris624wx said: One of these has to hit for us down here...surely 18z EPS still seems pretty aggressive with mid week threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 I tried to separate the three events, but 18z only goes out to 144 and the Friday threat is still going at the end of the run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I tried to separate the three events, but 18z only goes out to 144 and the Friday threat is still going at the end of the run. A few huge hits, are they the combination of two storms or just one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: A few huge hits, are they the combination of two storms or just one? The bottom three maps were an attempt to separate the mean among the 3 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Nice job @Ric Airport I think we're all hugging the Euro and it's ensembles. Just need one of those to work for all of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I tried to separate the three events, but 18z only goes out to 144 and the Friday threat is still going at the end of the run. Looks like 2 to 4 inches to me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Nice job @Ric Airport I think we're all hugging the Euro and it's ensembles. Just need one of those to work for all of us Just now, wasnow215 said: Looks like 2 to 4 inches to me lol Yeah, clearly the Tuesday night into Wednesday threat has the greatest momentum. The Friday threat is at the end of the run while that storm is still going so I wouldn't read into those numbers as much. It'll be interesting to see how the Euro and the GFS, since they both see the Friday system, handle that threat. We certainly have an interesting week ahead of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 4 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. Looks like they also increased the probability of reaching warning criteria to 50% as far west as Williamsburg and parts of Prince George. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, clearly the Tuesday night into Wednesday threat has the greatest momentum. The Friday threat is at the end of the run while that storm is still going so I wouldn't read into those numbers as much. It'll be interesting to see how the Euro and the GFS, since they both see the Friday system, handle that threat. We certainly have an interesting week ahead of us. Gotta deal with the ebbs and flows from day-to-day. Like the rest of our lives hahahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 I don't usually pay attention to the SREFS, but I noticed a decent increase from the 15Z run to the current 21Z run, particularly for the Hampton Roads area regarding the event from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Since it's at the tail end of the run, it's difficult to make a true comparison, so take it FWIW. 21Z run vs 15Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 00z GFS, ICON, UKMET, and CMC all basically zilch for the midweek system lol so that's just great!... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 hours ago, chris624wx said: 00z GFS, ICON, UKMET, and CMC all basically zilch for the midweek system lol so that's just great!... I’m not sure where you’re at, but for Richmond, this feels pretty classic, missing the good stuff both to the northwest and to the southeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, SoCoWx said: I’m not sure where you’re at, but for Richmond, this feels pretty classic, missing the good stuff both to the northwest and to the southeast. True! Very thankful for the two storms that brought a total of 8 inches in southwestern Chesterfield County. I still have snow on the ground on my side of the street a pretty decent amount actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It’s not going to snow here at all today lol. I don’t even expect to see a single flake per the HRRR and NAM. What a bummer of the last 24 hours. Oh well. This hobby is frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I know it's at long range but the NAMs made an appreciable jump to the northwest with the precip shield for the midweek event. For what it's worth. Maybe we'll start seeing more of a movement back to what we need. Hopefully. Got to stop that bleeding. Same with the last two runs of the EURO. Comparing the 0z and 6z runs. Another tick back to the northwest with the precip fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 26 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I know it's at long range but the NAMs made an appreciable jump to the northwest with the precip shield for the midweek event. For what it's worth. Maybe we'll start seeing more of a movement back to what we need. Hopefully. Got to stop that bleeding. Same with the last two runs of the EURO. Comparing the 0z and 6z runs. Another tick back to the northwest with the precip fields. You may be the forum jackpot winner!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: You may be the forum jackpot winner!! I wouldn't say that at all. You know with these overrunning situations precipitation usually is further north than modeled. Sometimes the best frontogenic banding is also on the far Northern Edge of the precip field. Sometimes you get caught between bands and you are in the screw zone. There's lots of time to watch this. Just need to maintain expectations and come to grips we're not going to get a foot of snow across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 35 minutes ago, Stormpc said: I wouldn't say that at all. You know with these overrunning situations precipitation usually is further north than modeled. Sometimes the best frontogenic banding is also on the far Northern Edge of the precip field. Sometimes you get caught between bands and you are in the screw zone. There's lots of time to watch this. Just need to maintain expectations and come to grips we're not going to get a foot of snow across the board. I’d be shocked if we see any precip before next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GFS came in way south. Not trying to be a downer but this midweek system just isn’t gonna happen. It’s Sunday and not a single model has it. Sorry ladies and gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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