Stormpc Posted Saturday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:21 PM 1 minute ago, Rvateach said: Some Black Pelican right now sounds great That place on the beach is great!! Good spot if you need to go back over to the mainland to chase if there's a mix. Close to the bridge. That would be an awesome place to ride out a rare winter storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:23 PM 55 minutes ago, Stormpc said: That place on the beach is great!! Good spot if you need to go back over to the mainland to chase if there's a mix. Close to the bridge. That would be an awesome place to ride out a rare winter storm I rode out Idalia in there Labor Day Weekend of 2023, wind enough for them to have the fireplaces going, knocked out internet for them and other systems, had to pay cash, no working ATM in the area, so had to be mindful of our drinking tab. Definitely a great place to ride out a storm. I would love to do a winter storm there and whenever I watch the scene in the bar of The Perfect Storm where they are all gathered waiting for news, I think of that trip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:40 PM 17 minutes ago, JB Fins said: I rode out Idalia in there Labor Day Weekend of 2023, wind enough for them to have the fireplaces going, knocked out internet for them and other systems, had to pay cash, no working ATM in the area, so had to be mindful of our drinking tab. Definitely a great place to ride out a storm. I would love to do a winter storm there and whenever I watch the scene in the bar of The Perfect Storm where they are all gathered waiting for news, I think of that trip. Such a great movie reference and great context! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM 84hr NAM fwiw, for Tues night/Wednesday threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 09:31 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 09:31 PM Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:40 PM 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. Gives us a decent chance for decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Saturday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:10 PM It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Saturday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:25 PM 12 minutes ago, Stormpc said: It's GONE per GFS . A total WHIFF. No good. Winter 4 without a snowstorm. Rain tomorrow then useless nothing cold then warm up and rain friday. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Saturday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:26 PM Just now, ldub23 said: Winter 4 without a snowstorm. Rain tomorrow then useless nothing cold then warm up and rain friday. Awesome It’s not even February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:49 PM No way I'm cutting you guys out down there for Tuesday/Wednesday. Stick to the ensembles til tomorrow night for all the models. And not just because they're not showing and such that I'm saying that- it's showing good snow for Friday and I don't buy that on one model yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Saturday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:30 PM Friday system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Saturday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:38 PM 45 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: No way I'm cutting you guys out down there for Tuesday/Wednesday. Stick to the ensembles til tomorrow night for all the models. And not just because they're not showing and such that I'm saying that- it's showing good snow for Friday and I don't buy that on one model yet either. Its FAR from resolved. The BOMB is no longer in play but a nice event isn't lost, yet. Tomorrow's storm isn't even clear yet. Not over yet! Tuesday night is still a ways away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Saturday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:42 PM 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Its FAR from resolved. The BOMB is no longer in play but a nice event isn't lost, yet. Tomorrow's storm isn't even clear yet. Not over yet! Tuesday night is still a ways away. Exactly! We've seen bigger turnarounds for sure with weather events in our favor and against Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Saturday at 11:49 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:49 PM 18 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Friday system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Sunday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:06 AM 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: One of these has to hit for us down here...surely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 12:19 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:19 AM 12 minutes ago, chris624wx said: One of these has to hit for us down here...surely 18z EPS still seems pretty aggressive with mid week threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 12:22 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:22 AM I tried to separate the three events, but 18z only goes out to 144 and the Friday threat is still going at the end of the run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Sunday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:34 AM 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I tried to separate the three events, but 18z only goes out to 144 and the Friday threat is still going at the end of the run. A few huge hits, are they the combination of two storms or just one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 12:43 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:43 AM 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: A few huge hits, are they the combination of two storms or just one? The bottom three maps were an attempt to separate the mean among the 3 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Sunday at 12:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:45 AM Nice job @Ric Airport I think we're all hugging the Euro and it's ensembles. Just need one of those to work for all of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 12:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:51 AM 29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I tried to separate the three events, but 18z only goes out to 144 and the Friday threat is still going at the end of the run. Looks like 2 to 4 inches to me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 12:55 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:55 AM 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Nice job @Ric Airport I think we're all hugging the Euro and it's ensembles. Just need one of those to work for all of us Just now, wasnow215 said: Looks like 2 to 4 inches to me lol Yeah, clearly the Tuesday night into Wednesday threat has the greatest momentum. The Friday threat is at the end of the run while that storm is still going so I wouldn't read into those numbers as much. It'll be interesting to see how the Euro and the GFS, since they both see the Friday system, handle that threat. We certainly have an interesting week ahead of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 01:01 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:01 AM 4 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Latest from WPC on the mid week storm threat. Looks like they also increased the probability of reaching warning criteria to 50% as far west as Williamsburg and parts of Prince George. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 01:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:09 AM 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, clearly the Tuesday night into Wednesday threat has the greatest momentum. The Friday threat is at the end of the run while that storm is still going so I wouldn't read into those numbers as much. It'll be interesting to see how the Euro and the GFS, since they both see the Friday system, handle that threat. We certainly have an interesting week ahead of us. Gotta deal with the ebbs and flows from day-to-day. Like the rest of our lives hahahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Sunday at 01:38 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 01:38 AM I don't usually pay attention to the SREFS, but I noticed a decent increase from the 15Z run to the current 21Z run, particularly for the Hampton Roads area regarding the event from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Since it's at the tail end of the run, it's difficult to make a true comparison, so take it FWIW. 21Z run vs 15Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Sunday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 AM 00z GFS, ICON, UKMET, and CMC all basically zilch for the midweek system lol so that's just great!... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted Sunday at 12:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:08 PM 7 hours ago, chris624wx said: 00z GFS, ICON, UKMET, and CMC all basically zilch for the midweek system lol so that's just great!... I’m not sure where you’re at, but for Richmond, this feels pretty classic, missing the good stuff both to the northwest and to the southeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Sunday at 12:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:11 PM 1 minute ago, SoCoWx said: I’m not sure where you’re at, but for Richmond, this feels pretty classic, missing the good stuff both to the northwest and to the southeast. True! Very thankful for the two storms that brought a total of 8 inches in southwestern Chesterfield County. I still have snow on the ground on my side of the street a pretty decent amount actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted Sunday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:29 PM It’s not going to snow here at all today lol. I don’t even expect to see a single flake per the HRRR and NAM. What a bummer of the last 24 hours. Oh well. This hobby is frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:48 PM I know it's at long range but the NAMs made an appreciable jump to the northwest with the precip shield for the midweek event. For what it's worth. Maybe we'll start seeing more of a movement back to what we need. Hopefully. Got to stop that bleeding. Same with the last two runs of the EURO. Comparing the 0z and 6z runs. Another tick back to the northwest with the precip fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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