Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted Thursday at 11:24 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:24 AM 06z Gfs shows a stronger, more southern low developing Sun/mon. It’s been consistent on the development for several runs now. Whether it’s correct or not in its placement is a different matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 11:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:29 AM Better for the next one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted Thursday at 11:33 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:33 AM 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Better for the next one too Yes. I’d like to see a more southern shift by about 100 miles. I still think the models are having a hard time with the strength of that arctic high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Thursday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:16 PM There's been an underlying trend for nearly a month now for mid/long range models to underestimate the pushback of confluence or suppressive flow. This weekend looked more like rain than snow out in time but the speed/depth of the acrtic front trended favorably. Atmosphere seems to want to buck the trend of the much more typical "north trend" or "slow cold". The way I look at things, the atmosphere has spoken and typical model trends that we expect aren't happening as expected. Each event is unique but until I see anything other than what has been repeating, I'll continue to hedge colder/snowier on all threats mid range or longer until I'm told to stop doing that... lolol Dies RIC end up with more snow than DC? It might just do that. Fun winter! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:19 PM 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's been an underlying trend for nearly a month now for mid/long range models to underestimate the pushback of confluence or suppressive flow. This weekend looked more like rain than snow out in time but the speed/depth of the acrtic front trended favorably. Atmosphere seems to want to buck the trend of the much more typical "north trend" or "slow cold". The way I look at things, the atmosphere has spoken and typical model trends that we expect aren't happening as expected. Each event is unique but until I see anything other than what has been repeating, I'll continue to hedge colder/snowier on all threats mid range or longer until I'm told to stop doing that... lolol Dies RIC end up with more snow than DC? It might just do that. Fun winter! This is great thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Anyone have 6z Euro snow map for sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Thursday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:31 PM 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Anyone have 6z Euro snow map for sun? Its a nothing burger from here to RIC. ICON further north. Looking like another snowless winter in Newport News. The rain/snow slop we have got so far means nothing https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2025011612&fh=108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:10 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:10 PM 12z GFS has a similar solution to that of the Euro for the Sunday threat. Has the best chance of accumulations north and west of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 PM 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z GFS has a similar solution to that of the Euro for the Sunday threat. Has the best chance of accumulations north and west of RIC. Well that's no fun! Sigh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:15 PM Still time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:33 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:33 PM 40 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Well that's no fun! Sigh... 40 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Still time It all depends on where the precip bands are set up. I think the issue with us is the coldest air not arriving in time. This run is warmer; we are 37-40°F when the precip starts around 7 am, instead of 33-34°F that earlier runs had. So, we suffer because we spend too much time trying to cool the atmosphere down to the surface, and by then, most of the precipitation is over, thus lower snow accumulations.. GFS didn't have RIC reach freezing until 20z Sunday (3PM), and there is still a warm layer aloft that bisects the Richmond metro area at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:47 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:47 PM Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Thursday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:10 PM I need what the Canadian is advertising. 16inches in Currituck looks about right. That'll do. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Thursday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:16 PM 28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al. Still holding strong on ICON and UKMET too this morning! Hopefully 12z Euro plays along soon! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted Thursday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:26 PM 8 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Still holding strong on ICON and UKMET too this morning! Hopefully 12z Euro plays along soon! I would take a long stroll outside, if this happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Thursday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:27 PM 37 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile, if you want hope for later next week, here is the Canadian. @chris624wx, @wasnow215, et al. The lows on the GFS are getting progressively warmer and warmer. Might have to watch out for tornados with the last one https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025011612&fh=312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 05:37 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:37 PM 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: The lows on the GFS are getting progressively warmer and warmer. Might have to watch out for tornados with the last one https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025011612&fh=312 There is indication the pattern will break down toward the end of the month. The question is, will there be a reload later on? But, that's so far out, will need to look at teleconnections and ensembles. I haven't paid much attention to the weeklies this year because of how they performed last year, but the last I saw is that we were on the cooler side of things well into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 05:39 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:39 PM 23 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Still holding strong on ICON and UKMET too this morning! Hopefully 12z Euro plays along soon! 12z Euro breaking hearts for Sunday as well as next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 05:43 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:43 PM Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:47 PM 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday. Better than it being north of me and id rather see NC get snow than DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Euro had mid week storm, but too far south. It also had a 3rd threat next Saturday. NW trend c'mon (but not too much haha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:57 PM 6 minutes ago, chris624wx said: NW trend c'mon (but not too much haha) It also has a storm affecting the whole east coast at the end of the run. Wasn't ideal for us, but perhaps it signals the infamous big storm as the pattern begins the collapse? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted Thursday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:10 PM Yes that mid-week storm to the South is good for us folks in Hampton Roads and Northeast North carolina. We want it right there right now actually. Selfishly I would cash that check as well as advertised 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:26 PM Hopefully EPS disagrees with operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 06:53 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 06:53 PM 28 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Hopefully EPS disagrees with operational EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted Thursday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:42 PM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats. Do you have the EPS table for ORF, @RIC Airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 08:47 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:47 PM FWIW, the 18Z NAM is within range for the Sunday threat and has the axis of snows over most of our region of the state, except for extreme SE VA. Pretty far out in rage for the NAM, but an interesting development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:47 PM 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: EPS mean thru 360 is pitiful considering all the threats. It looks like half ensembles have next weeks storms tracking either south or north of us. A few in between give us nice hits like e18 lol…. I’m still not sold that models have figured out storm details/ tracking based off this. I know it’s the GEM, but it has been relatively steady. GFS and Euro Op flipping these wild solutions from cutters to suppression into FL/ GOM). Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM 13 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Do you have the EPS table for ORF, @RIC Airport? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 08:51 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:51 PM 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: It looks like half ensembles have next weeks storms tracking either south or north of us. A few in between give us nice hits like e18 lol…. I’m still not sold that models have figured out storm details/ tracking based off this. I know it’s the GEM, but it has been relatively steady. GFS and Euro Op flipping these wild solutions from cutters to suppression into FL/ GOM). Will see. Yes, hopefully the Canadian can score a win. However, I was not terribly impressed with the EPS, signals are there, but I guess I'm just impatient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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