RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 08:09 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 08:09 PM 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: EPS Mean for early next week. Wouldn’t take much to trend north with no real block in place 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: EPS mean for late next week system Both Richmond and Norfolk have some good hits on the EPS charts. You can see EPS likes the 22nd-23rd the most, and there is the threat around the 26-27th popping up as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 09:05 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:05 PM It's time to start talking cold. Both the GFS and Euro show that RIC and ORF will remain below freezing for three consecutive days, while the Euro model indicates that both stations could stay below freezing for four days next week. The last instance of three or more consecutive days with high temperatures in the 20s or lower at both stations was in January 2018. Additionally, RIC has the potential to dip into the single digits for the first time since Christmas Eve of 2022. If this occurs for two nights in a row, it would be the first time this has happened since January 2018, when RIC hit -3°F. 12z Euro temps valid 1pm Tuesday 1/21 showing RIC at only 16°F and ORF 19°F. 12z Euro had RIC at 7°F at 7am Wednesday 1/22, ORF at 17, thanks to the warmer water keeping temps elevated depending on wind speed/direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Wednesday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:22 PM ICON is a quick hitting 2-4" for Central VA. South of 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 09:23 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 09:23 PM Just now, Ephesians2 said: ICON is a quick hitting 2-4" for Central VA. South of 12z. Thanks, was just about to post the wxbell map. Good signs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Wednesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:32 PM 2-4” storm will be nice followed by brutal cold! Let’s hope the big dog storms trend north. GFS will be running soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:48 PM 25 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Thanks, was just about to post the wxbell map. Good signs. Gonna be ICONic! (See what I did there?? Hahahaha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 10:10 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:10 PM 37 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: GFS will be running soon. 21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Gonna be ICONic! (See what I did there?? Hahahaha) The placement of the band continues to shift, but still worth monitoring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Wednesday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:43 PM 41 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The placement of the band continues to shift, but still worth monitoring. Avg of ICON and GFS is 2-3 for everyone. Once again after a cold day the warm surges in and rain it is for everyone for storm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 11:01 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:01 PM 14 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Avg of ICON and GFS is 2-3 for everyone. Once again after a cold day the warm surges in and rain it is for everyone for storm 2 I don't think the mid-late week, whether it's one or two systems, is resolved. There is enough confidence in snow Sunday into Sunday night, but who sees the accumulations, and how much still needs to be resolved. The placement of snow as the low departs the area varies from run to run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:03 PM 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I don't think the mid-late week, whether it's one or two systems, is resolved. There is enough confidence in snow Sunday into Sunday night, but who sees the accumulations, and how much still needs to be resolved. The placement of snow as the low departs the area varies from run to run. Definitely not resolved when the European model has a suppressed system out to sea, and then the GFS has a cutter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 11:31 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:31 PM 18z Euro still shows a band of snow forming during the day Sunday into Sunday evening. QPF totals range from 0.10 to 0.20" on average. Temps at RIC look to be around 33°F at the start but fall to the upper 20s during this light event per this Euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Wednesday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:41 PM 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z Euro still shows a band of snow forming during the day Sunday into Sunday evening. QPF totals range from 0.10 to 0.20" on average. Temps at RIC look to be around 33°F at the start but fall to the upper 20s during this light event per this Euro run. Seems like another 1-3" snow the way it's heading. Adding to robust seasonal totals so far! Right during your time my Eagles face the Rams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Wednesday at 11:53 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:53 PM At the end of the run, things look very interesting for the middle of the week. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvateach Posted Thursday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:08 AM I’m not really here for the cold, I mean…I’m here for a snow day though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 12:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:17 AM 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: At the end of the run, things look very interesting for the middle of the week. Looking like a possible 2003 Presidents' Day weekend set up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:03 AM I was always skeptical about the suppressed storm look because there’s no real block above. Hopefully it will trend back but too much we will get mixing/rain issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:29 AM 25 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I was always skeptical about the suppressed storm look because there’s no real block above. Hopefully it will trend back but too much we will get mixing/rain issues. Is the 1031 HP in above the Great Lakes that's forecasted not in right place? Serious question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 02:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:54 AM 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Is the 1031 HP in above the Great Lakes that's forecasted not in right place? Serious question. Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 03:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:07 AM 12 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol Likewise lol-I try to read a lot from people who know on this thread and the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 03:15 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:15 AM 18z EPS improved, nice north trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:02 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:02 AM 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol 49 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Likewise lol-I try to read a lot from people who know on this thread and the other We need the high responsible for next week's cold to exit off the coast northeast of us. 18Z GFS, for example, had the high exiting off ORF, setting the stage for SE winds ahead of the system arriving next Friday. The mid-levels get screwed up, all of I-95 mixes, and we even eventually turn over to rain. It's just one solution on the table. Let's see what later runs do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:06 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:06 AM 3 hours ago, Rvateach said: I’m not really here for the cold, I mean…I’m here for a snow day though! I hope so as well. Favorable patterns don't last and eventually break down, so we have to score when we can. But, when they do, do the patterns return? The end of the EPS showed a SE ridge forming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 04:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:07 AM GFS ok for Sun evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 04:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:08 AM 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I hope so as well. Favorable patterns don't last and eventually break down, so we have to score when we can. But, when they do, do the patterns return? The end of the EPS showed a SE ridge forming. Phase 3 of MJO would be ok. Phase 4 we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:14 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 AM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS ok for Sun evening There is no real change on the Sunday snow idea, except that both GFS and Euro have an earlier arrival time on Sunday, and this run of the GFS had a bit more QPF in spots (>0.40"). Temps look to start around freezing at the onset, then drop as colder air filters in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted Thursday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 AM 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: GFS ok for Sun evening Great here. 4 inches. ICON again north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:18 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:18 AM 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Great here. 4 inches. ICON again north Placement of the higher totals on both GFS and Euro continue to shift from run to run. But, it's good to see they are honing in on our part of the state. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted Thursday at 04:26 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:26 AM 00z GFS is either going to be a carbon copy of 18z or actually cut well west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Thursday at 04:30 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:30 AM 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS is either going to be a carbon copy of 18z or actually cut well west of us. Heard it hasn't scored well this season -a week out for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted Thursday at 04:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:35 AM Nice Inland low and rainstorm…:/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now