mikeeng92 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000pk10/executive the boom was incredible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 18Z Euro AI looked very promising for accumulating snows on Sunday into Sunday night as a wave develops after the front passes on Saturday. It shows a similar scenario as the 12z Euro for the mid week storm. We have a coastal low arriving from the south, surface temps are below freezing, but we are above freezing at 850mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:03 AM, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro AI looked very promising for accumulating snows on Sunday into Sunday night as a wave develops after the front passes on Saturday. It shows a similar scenario as the 12z Euro for the mid week storm. We have a coastal low arriving from the south, surface temps are below freezing, but we are above freezing at 850mb. Expand What god do we need to sacrifice a virgin to, to get that to stop happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If only the CMC verified. Would be beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Also, Ukie may be a hit and GDPS is solid. Just need to Euro and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS says enjoy the rain. Freeze our rears off, warm up and rain, freeze again. What we do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 11:08 AM, ldub23 said: GFS says enjoy the rain. Freeze our rears off, warm up and rain, freeze again. What we do best. Expand Still a lot of time. Solutions never really get worked out until 36 to 48 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wild run to run differences. Need to first figure out the weekend wave before getting a handle on the 21st/ 22nd. All potential outcomes are there are depending upon your preferred model run. Pretty crazy. Interesting part is this weekend's situation is not close to model consensus and it's Wednesday already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 4:23 AM, SoCoWx said: What god do we need to sacrifice a virgin to, to get that to stop happening? Expand Getting a strong high pressure (1040-1050mb) in the right spot, say, over upstate NY, certainly helps. Oh, and a 50/50 low around the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Don't overlook the potential of snow Sunday evening. Both the GFS and Euro highlight this possibility, though to varying degrees. It all depends on strength and where the band forms but some lucky spots could get some minor accumulations. Here was the 6z Euro. 12Z GFS is just starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 3:40 PM, RIC Airport said: Don't overlook the potential of snow Sunday evening. Both the GFS and Euro highlight this possibility, though to varying degrees. It all depends on strength and where the band forms but some lucky spots could get some minor accumulations. Here was the 6z Euro. 12Z GFS is just starting. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Mid week threat is suppressed and OTS on the GFS, but has a 3rd threat next Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GEM still has a nice event 1/22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 4:37 PM, Conway7305 said: GEM still has a nice event 1/22 Expand It it wins next week over the GFS and Euro, then maybe I'll start looking at it more. 3rd threat on the GFS next Friday-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 4:12 PM, RIC Airport said: Expand I need this in case next week is a bust haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Going to be lots of fake outs the next few days. Let's start with the Weekend event and deal with the rest in 5 days. It's all over the place. If you can lock in the morning runs for Richmond you would do it right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 @RIC AirportI need help with timing for Sunday it looks like it won't start possibly in until noon is that what you see? For Richmond,/Glen Allen area as it stands now obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 4:20 PM, RIC Airport said: Mid week threat is suppressed and OTS on the GFS, but has a 3rd threat next Friday into Saturday. Expand Thank God. Far better than the rain it was showing at 6Z. Maybe sunday will finally be a win here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EPS Mean for early next week. Wouldn’t take much to trend north with no real block in place 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EPS mean for late next week system 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 4:47 PM, chris624wx said: I need this in case next week is a bust haha Expand It will be interesting to see how the short term models perform as we approach the event in the next 2-3 days. Hopefully the axis of the heaviest snows is similar to what the 12z GFS run depicted. On 1/15/2025 at 4:51 PM, wasnow215 said: @RIC AirportI need help with timing for Sunday it looks like it won't start possibly in until noon is that what you see? For Richmond,/Glen Allen area as it stands now obviously Expand The latest GFS indicates a transition period from rain to snow between 3-4 PM and lasting until about 3-4 AM. In contrast, the Euro model suggests an earlier changeover, starting around noon and continuing until ~7 PM. The Euro is less aggressive and shows that the heaviest snowfall will remain north and west of Richmond. As you indicated, could be slight adjustments with the times from run to run, will need to monitor short term runs as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:41 PM, Conway7305 said: EPS Mean for early next week. Wouldn’t take much to trend north with no real block in place Expand On 1/15/2025 at 6:42 PM, Conway7305 said: EPS mean for late next week system Expand Both Richmond and Norfolk have some good hits on the EPS charts. You can see EPS likes the 22nd-23rd the most, and there is the threat around the 26-27th popping up as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 It's time to start talking cold. Both the GFS and Euro show that RIC and ORF will remain below freezing for three consecutive days, while the Euro model indicates that both stations could stay below freezing for four days next week. The last instance of three or more consecutive days with high temperatures in the 20s or lower at both stations was in January 2018. Additionally, RIC has the potential to dip into the single digits for the first time since Christmas Eve of 2022. If this occurs for two nights in a row, it would be the first time this has happened since January 2018, when RIC hit -3°F. 12z Euro temps valid 1pm Tuesday 1/21 showing RIC at only 16°F and ORF 19°F. 12z Euro had RIC at 7°F at 7am Wednesday 1/22, ORF at 17, thanks to the warmer water keeping temps elevated depending on wind speed/direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON is a quick hitting 2-4" for Central VA. South of 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:22 PM, Ephesians2 said: ICON is a quick hitting 2-4" for Central VA. South of 12z. Expand Thanks, was just about to post the wxbell map. Good signs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2-4” storm will be nice followed by brutal cold! Let’s hope the big dog storms trend north. GFS will be running soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:23 PM, RIC Airport said: Thanks, was just about to post the wxbell map. Good signs. Expand Gonna be ICONic! (See what I did there?? Hahahaha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:32 PM, Conway7305 said: GFS will be running soon. Expand On 1/15/2025 at 9:48 PM, wasnow215 said: Gonna be ICONic! (See what I did there?? Hahahaha) Expand The placement of the band continues to shift, but still worth monitoring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:10 PM, RIC Airport said: The placement of the band continues to shift, but still worth monitoring. Expand Avg of ICON and GFS is 2-3 for everyone. Once again after a cold day the warm surges in and rain it is for everyone for storm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:43 PM, ldub23 said: Avg of ICON and GFS is 2-3 for everyone. Once again after a cold day the warm surges in and rain it is for everyone for storm 2 Expand I don't think the mid-late week, whether it's one or two systems, is resolved. There is enough confidence in snow Sunday into Sunday night, but who sees the accumulations, and how much still needs to be resolved. The placement of snow as the low departs the area varies from run to run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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