wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, wasnow215 said: I remember it was VERY VERY cold. Powdery snow. Or maybe I'm thinking if another one. Jan 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Bombarded with ZR with a primary low coming up the coast while our surface temperatures are only around 20 degrees? We simply dont get freezing rain here luckily. It always warms up to 35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I remember that storm back in the day. We found a big open parking lot and took the trucks out to spin around. I think Short Pump did a little better on accumulations than the city if I can remember correctly. 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I remember it was VERY VERY cold. Powdery snow. It was the biggest snowstorm since 2/6/2010. Temps started in the mid-20s, and 3-6" fell initially, followed by warmer temps where RIC peaked at 37°F under +RA. Temps dropped and there was another 2-4" on the back side of the storm, but eastern areas did better on the back end. As you can see from below, the storm started in the south. Even Charlotte recorded 8.4" before eventually flipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Maybe some snow showers overnight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879282169052328269 GRAF model has it, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 5 hours ago, RIC Airport said: GFS is still aggressive with that 2nd wave forming after passage of the cold front. 18Z GFS is even more aggressive with this wave that trails the front . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 anyone feel that possible earthquake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I felt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS 1/ 20 energy gives us a nice 3” but suppresses the 23rd storm. It’s really isn’t that much off track as Low still climbs the coast. Will see what ensembles say. Prob some decent hits still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000pk10/executive the boom was incredible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 18Z Euro AI looked very promising for accumulating snows on Sunday into Sunday night as a wave develops after the front passes on Saturday. It shows a similar scenario as the 12z Euro for the mid week storm. We have a coastal low arriving from the south, surface temps are below freezing, but we are above freezing at 850mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro AI looked very promising for accumulating snows on Sunday into Sunday night as a wave develops after the front passes on Saturday. It shows a similar scenario as the 12z Euro for the mid week storm. We have a coastal low arriving from the south, surface temps are below freezing, but we are above freezing at 850mb. What god do we need to sacrifice a virgin to, to get that to stop happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If only the CMC verified. Would be beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Also, Ukie may be a hit and GDPS is solid. Just need to Euro and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS says enjoy the rain. Freeze our rears off, warm up and rain, freeze again. What we do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: GFS says enjoy the rain. Freeze our rears off, warm up and rain, freeze again. What we do best. Still a lot of time. Solutions never really get worked out until 36 to 48 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wild run to run differences. Need to first figure out the weekend wave before getting a handle on the 21st/ 22nd. All potential outcomes are there are depending upon your preferred model run. Pretty crazy. Interesting part is this weekend's situation is not close to model consensus and it's Wednesday already. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 11 hours ago, SoCoWx said: What god do we need to sacrifice a virgin to, to get that to stop happening? Getting a strong high pressure (1040-1050mb) in the right spot, say, over upstate NY, certainly helps. Oh, and a 50/50 low around the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Don't overlook the potential of snow Sunday evening. Both the GFS and Euro highlight this possibility, though to varying degrees. It all depends on strength and where the band forms but some lucky spots could get some minor accumulations. Here was the 6z Euro. 12Z GFS is just starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 31 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Don't overlook the potential of snow Sunday evening. Both the GFS and Euro highlight this possibility, though to varying degrees. It all depends on strength and where the band forms but some lucky spots could get some minor accumulations. Here was the 6z Euro. 12Z GFS is just starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Mid week threat is suppressed and OTS on the GFS, but has a 3rd threat next Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GEM still has a nice event 1/22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: GEM still has a nice event 1/22 It it wins next week over the GFS and Euro, then maybe I'll start looking at it more. 3rd threat on the GFS next Friday-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 34 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I need this in case next week is a bust haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Going to be lots of fake outs the next few days. Let's start with the Weekend event and deal with the rest in 5 days. It's all over the place. If you can lock in the morning runs for Richmond you would do it right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 @RIC AirportI need help with timing for Sunday it looks like it won't start possibly in until noon is that what you see? For Richmond,/Glen Allen area as it stands now obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: Mid week threat is suppressed and OTS on the GFS, but has a 3rd threat next Friday into Saturday. Thank God. Far better than the rain it was showing at 6Z. Maybe sunday will finally be a win here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EPS Mean for early next week. Wouldn’t take much to trend north with no real block in place 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EPS mean for late next week system 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, chris624wx said: I need this in case next week is a bust haha It will be interesting to see how the short term models perform as we approach the event in the next 2-3 days. Hopefully the axis of the heaviest snows is similar to what the 12z GFS run depicted. 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC AirportI need help with timing for Sunday it looks like it won't start possibly in until noon is that what you see? For Richmond,/Glen Allen area as it stands now obviously The latest GFS indicates a transition period from rain to snow between 3-4 PM and lasting until about 3-4 AM. In contrast, the Euro model suggests an earlier changeover, starting around noon and continuing until ~7 PM. The Euro is less aggressive and shows that the heaviest snowfall will remain north and west of Richmond. As you indicated, could be slight adjustments with the times from run to run, will need to monitor short term runs as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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