RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 On 1/12/2025 at 6:38 PM, chris624wx said: 12z Euro is an absolute fever dream! Would completely make up for this last storm and then some haha Expand Yes, and a fresh snowcover with an arctic airmass gets you record cold afterwards. -9°F at RIC and single digits at ORF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 On 1/12/2025 at 5:56 PM, RIC Airport said: Frigid during the event, @mikeeng92. And if realized, it would be the coldest snowstorm in Richmond since 2/18/1979 (PD1) when temperatures during the height of the event was only around 10°F. Expand Its how we get a snowstorm here. NNE wind https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2025011212&fh=246&r=atl&dpdt=&mc= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z EPS not bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 On 1/12/2025 at 9:12 PM, Conway7305 said: 12z EPS not bad Expand 18z GFS was a nice hit as well. Brought back the storm. Temps are cold! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 On 1/12/2025 at 10:40 PM, RIC Airport said: 18z GFS was a nice hit as well. Brought back the storm. Temps are cold! Expand Nice both are in agreement of storm 1/21 seems to be favoring the Tidewater and southern areas but plenty of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 On 1/12/2025 at 10:40 PM, RIC Airport said: 18z GFS was a nice hit as well. Brought back the storm. Temps are cold! Expand That's uh wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 On 1/12/2025 at 11:43 PM, chris624wx said: That's uh wow! Expand Wakefield finally provided the ORF airport storm total from the last event. Looks like 1.7" for the 10th-11th and then 0.2" for the 5th-6th. So, the 1"+ drought is over there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 On 1/12/2025 at 10:56 PM, Conway7305 said: Nice both are in agreement of storm 1/21 seems to be favoring the Tidewater and southern areas but plenty of time Expand 18Z GEFS only really had 2 good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/13/2025 at 12:47 AM, RIC Airport said: 18Z GEFS only really had 2 good hits. Expand Still early. Will take P9 or P10! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 On 1/12/2025 at 10:40 PM, RIC Airport said: 18z GFS was a nice hit as well. Brought back the storm. Temps are cold! Expand I will take an average of the Euro and GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Deep south snows on GFS. let’s see what the ensemble say. hopefully further north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 That's where we want to be, not in the bullseye this far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 On 1/13/2025 at 11:25 PM, ldub23 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025011318&fh=150 Expand 18Z GEFS had a slight up tick from 12z in the mean, still quite of few shut outs unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 On 1/11/2025 at 8:55 PM, chris624wx said: Thanks for your perspective! It's nice to learn these things from people who have been here a long time. I moved here in early 2020 so I've only experienced a few events, and I've learned I got really spoiled with the two back to back storms in January 2022. I had a bit of foreboding when I was seeing Raleigh having mixing issues last night but I was hoping that wouldn't matter haha now I know! Expand On 1/11/2025 at 10:18 PM, ldub23 said: Another thing to look at is wind direction. When i woke up at 2am last night and saw the wind was south at6mph at Patrick Henry i knew we were going straight to rain within minutes. 99.9% of our all snow events occur with a NNE wind. Anymore east and its a guarantee the rain will come. Expand On 1/11/2025 at 10:40 PM, Stormpc said: Yes I was long asleep by then. The South Winds really did nothing to the surface temperatures since they were down to 32 or 33 all the way near Wilmington but it got warm up top pretty fast. Once we lost the rates that was it. With all the waterways there's so many microclimates around here. It's a very challenging place in all seasons. I do believe there are better days ahead with at least one or two more legitimate shots. Expand Wakefield wrote an excellent summary on this event and tried to explain what happened that led to the precip type issues. Worth a read if you have a few minutes. https://www.weather.gov/akq/jan10_11_2025_winterstorm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 12:44 AM, RIC Airport said: 18Z GEFS had a slight up tick from 12z in the mean, still quite of few shut outs unfortunately. Expand Nice uptick from 12z. 4 ensemble members snow 10+ with the winner being P23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 1:28 AM, Conway7305 said: Nice uptick from 12z. 4 ensemble members snow 10+ with the winner being P23 Expand P03, and P23 look like a snow apocalypse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Although there haven’t been any major storms, these light snow events combined with cold temperatures have made January 2025 the best stretch of winter in years. For the first time since the 2016 blizzard, Richmond has officially recorded seven consecutive days with a snow depth of 1 inch or more. Snow depth is measured daily at 7 a.m. (12z), and the recorded depth goes for that calendar date, even if the snow melts later in the day. You can see the 12z daily snow depth in the first attachment below. January 5th has a 0 snow depth because the snow did not begin until later in the evening. The next attachment below shows Richmond's longest snow cover stretches from 2000 to 2025. Two back-to-back snowstorms helped make January 2025 have one of the most consistent snow cover periods over the last 25 years. Notice that the snowy winter of 2009-10 had 1 inch + snow cover lasting 14 days (16 days if you include trace amounts). The record for Richmond is 21 days from the winter of 1947-48. Furthermore, the first 12 days of this month rank among the top 20 coldest first 12 days of January since records began in 1897. With the continued cold temperatures projected over the next two weeks, this January has the potential to be the coldest since at least 1988. So far this month, Richmond has received 6.5 inches of snow. To rank among the top 10 snowiest Januarys, an additional 8 inches of snow would be needed by the end of the month. January 2025 is off to a great start and hopefully we can score in a big way before things are all done, we are due for a 20"+ season. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 2:08 AM, RIC Airport said: Although there haven’t been any major storms, these light snow events combined with cold temperatures have made January 2025 the best stretch of winter in years. For the first time since the 2016 blizzard, Richmond has officially recorded seven consecutive days with a snow depth of 1 inch or more. Snow depth is measured daily at 7 a.m. (12z), and the recorded depth goes for that calendar date, even if the snow melts later in the day. You can see the 12z daily snow depth in the first attachment below. January 5th has a 0 snow depth because the snow did not begin until later in the evening. The next attachment below shows Richmond's longest snow cover stretches from 2000 to 2025. Two back-to-back snowstorms helped make January 2025 have one of the most consistent snow cover periods over the last 25 years. Notice that the snowy winter of 2009-10 had 1 inch + snow cover lasting 14 days (16 days if you include trace amounts). The record for Richmond is 21 days from the winter of 1947-48. Furthermore, the first 12 days of this month rank among the top 20 coldest first 12 days of January since records began in 1897. With the continued cold temperatures projected over the next two weeks, this January has the potential to be the coldest since at least 1988. So far this month, Richmond has received 6.5 inches of snow. To rank among the top 10 snowiest Januarys, an additional 8 inches of snow would be needed by the end of the month. January 2025 is off to a great start and hopefully we can score in a big way before things are all done, we are due for a 20"+ season. Expand This is good info. Thanks RIC! All we need is a clean Miller A and we are set 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anybody see the 6Z GFS? Has a few inches of snow by Monday and then a bigger storm with snow the following Thursday and Friday less than 10 days from now for both of them obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 12:26 PM, wasnow215 said: Anybody see the 6Z GFS? Has a few inches of snow by Monday and then a bigger storm with snow the following Thursday and Friday less than 10 days from now for both of them obviously. Expand It’s pretty cool to look at! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 1:49 PM, Stormpc said: We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though? Expand Hopefully the cold will produce something for SEVA and NENC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 12:26 PM, wasnow215 said: Anybody see the 6Z GFS? Has a few inches of snow by Monday and then a bigger storm with snow the following Thursday and Friday less than 10 days from now for both of them obviously. Expand On 1/14/2025 at 12:40 PM, Rhino16 said: It’s pretty cool to look at! Expand On 1/14/2025 at 1:49 PM, Stormpc said: We're heading into Prime Mid-Atlantic snow season. The next 3 weeks is historically the most active for our area. Feeling good about some threats. Lots of cold air lurking. Southern stream looks active. EURO not really budging on the 10 day threat like the GFS and Canadian. In the meantime this looks to be a fairly benign transition week with seasonal temperatures before whatever happens this weekend sets us up for a possibly active period. Until then its fun to look at things at fantasy range. Some of those Southern Solutions are comical. Imagine though? Expand On 1/14/2025 at 2:41 PM, ldub23 said: Hopefully the cold will produce something for SEVA and NENC Expand I'm happy to see the threats keep popping up. There have been wild swings and storms on (some blockbuster events) and off, so it's hard to take anything too seriously for now. Come back at 12z , and I think, based on how the Euro has performed overall, I would like to see the Euro get on board before I get excited. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 2:08 AM, RIC Airport said: Although there haven’t been any major storms, these light snow events combined with cold temperatures have made January 2025 the best stretch of winter in years. For the first time since the 2016 blizzard, Richmond has officially recorded seven consecutive days with a snow depth of 1 inch or more. Snow depth is measured daily at 7 a.m. (12z), and the recorded depth goes for that calendar date, even if the snow melts later in the day. You can see the 12z daily snow depth in the first attachment below. January 5th has a 0 snow depth because the snow did not begin until later in the evening. The next attachment below shows Richmond's longest snow cover stretches from 2000 to 2025. Two back-to-back snowstorms helped make January 2025 have one of the most consistent snow cover periods over the last 25 years. Notice that the snowy winter of 2009-10 had 1 inch + snow cover lasting 14 days (16 days if you include trace amounts). The record for Richmond is 21 days from the winter of 1947-48. Furthermore, the first 12 days of this month rank among the top 20 coldest first 12 days of January since records began in 1897. With the continued cold temperatures projected over the next two weeks, this January has the potential to be the coldest since at least 1988. So far this month, Richmond has received 6.5 inches of snow. To rank among the top 10 snowiest Januarys, an additional 8 inches of snow would be needed by the end of the month. January 2025 is off to a great start and hopefully we can score in a big way before things are all done, we are due for a 20"+ season. Expand On 1/14/2025 at 2:28 AM, Conway7305 said: This is good info. Thanks RIC! All we need is a clean Miller A and we are set Expand Here's an update! Yesterday morning, the snow depth measured at 12z was 2 inches, bringing the total duration of snow cover to 8 days. This is the longest period of at least 1 inch of snow cover in Richmond since the winter of 2009-2010. Considering that the temperature at RIC reached 51°F yesterday, it is likely that this stretch of snow cover has ended after 8 days. However, a trace of snow may have still been recorded on the ground this morning. We'll see what the CF6 says tomorrow for this morning's measurement. According to the snow measurement guidelines. "When in your judgment, less than 50 percent of the exposed ground is covered by snow, even though the covered areas have a significant depth, the snow depth should be recorded as a trace (T). When no snow or ice is on the ground in exposed areas (snow may be present in surrounding forested or otherwise protected areas), record a "0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 GFS is still aggressive with that 2nd wave forming after passage of the cold front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 12z GFS is coming in strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 4:27 PM, RIC Airport said: 12z GFS is coming in strong! Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The Low can stay right where it is off of the Carolinas! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 On 1/14/2025 at 4:37 PM, chris624wx said: The Low can stay right where it is off of the Carolinas! Expand Hopefully the Euro catches on and we get better support on the GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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