wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 3:20 AM, ldub23 said: ICON sucked for everyone. Rain here and little precip at RIC Expand It wasn't very snowy at 18 Z either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It’s the ICON…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Stick by the HRRR and GRAF for this one. Until crazy noticeable changes happen on all models no need to worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 3:46 AM, RVAman said: Stick by the HRRR and GRAF for this one. Until crazy noticeable changes happen on all models no need to worry. Expand Anyone have the latest GRAF? Not sure how often it runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 00z GFS was about .10" less in QPF on average for most from the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 3:44 AM, Conway7305 said: It’s the ICON…lol Expand Exactly, it's just an extra tool. ICON hasn't been around long enough to have a reputation and "SEEing" things over the legacy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event. You love to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 4:23 AM, Dick_LeBoof said: 18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event. You love to see it. Expand Wakefield is saying watches that remained in place around Richmond will likely need to be upgraded to a warning. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 945 PM EST Thursday Update... General trend among the 00z model suite, including among the hi-res output, has been a continued upward trend in QPF/snowfall amounts with a slightly more amplified system. There is also better agreement on the potential placement of a narrow band of higher totals in the 4-6" range, generally across the northern tier of the current Winter Storm Warning per the 00z HRRR and NAM. While we will defer the final decision on headline upgrades to the overnight shift, it is looking quite likely that the winter storm watches for wrn Chesterfield, the city of Richmond, and points W will need to be upgraded to a warning for 3-5" of snow. Additionally, at least advisories will almost certainly be needed for a tier or two of counties N of the current watches/warnings, including on the MD Eastern Shore. Higher uncertainty remains over the SE due to mixing/p-type concerns, but will also need at least advisories here as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 4:31 AM, RIC Airport said: Wakefield is saying watches that remained in place around Richmond will likely need to be upgraded to a warning. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 945 PM EST Thursday Update... General trend among the 00z model suite, including among the hi-res output, has been a continued upward trend in QPF/snowfall amounts with a slightly more amplified system. There is also better agreement on the potential placement of a narrow band of higher totals in the 4-6" range, generally across the northern tier of the current Winter Storm Warning per the 00z HRRR and NAM. While we will defer the final decision on headline upgrades to the overnight shift, it is looking quite likely that the winter storm watches for wrn Chesterfield, the city of Richmond, and points W will need to be upgraded to a warning for 3-5" of snow. Additionally, at least advisories will almost certainly be needed for a tier or two of counties N of the current watches/warnings, including on the MD Eastern Shore. Higher uncertainty remains over the SE due to mixing/p-type concerns, but will also need at least advisories here as well. Expand Updated map, somewhere between RIC and PHF could hit 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What's up with Virginia Beach in the purple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We are getting close to now casting time but overnight computer models seemed to be a little drier and a little more south. So I'm making my official call for the airport 3 inches lol. Meeting Richmond,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 10:49 AM, EverythingisEverything said: What's up with Virginia Beach in the purple? Expand They believe mixing could cut down on totals there but still believe up to 2" is possible. Saw the below graphics on WAVY, first explains why southside Hampton Roads is tricky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 12:08 PM, wasnow215 said: We are getting close to now casting time but overnight computer models seemed to be a little drier and a little more south. So I'm making my official call for the airport 3 inches lol. Meeting Richmond,. Expand That pesky dry air up this way is what they are picking up on. Hopefully it's a bit overdone. From the looks of the radar, you'd think we'd be getting a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 3:48 AM, chris624wx said: Anyone have the latest GRAF? Expand https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds/status/1877698909721526734?t=Lj-QSKqb4sElkDV9Or4h5A&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 12:14 PM, RIC Airport said: That pesky dry air up this way is what they are picking up on. Hopefully it's a bit overdone. From the looks of the radar, you'd think we'd be getting a foot. Expand It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Latest 12 NAM reduced amounts for Richmond. Accumulations dropped in city and Henrico. Points east and south still good. HRRR however still looks nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Richmond market TV station maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Hampton Roads Market TV stations 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 2:12 PM, Bob Chill said: It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always. Expand Thanks, Bob. Appreciate your insights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 2:12 PM, Bob Chill said: It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always. Expand Dude is a weather board goat! Glad you stopped in man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Seeming as if Euro may not be too far off. We will know in less than 20 hours haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 4:18 PM, wasnow215 said: Seeming as if Euro may not be too far off. We will know in less than 20 hours haha Expand No way man!! USA,USA! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Nice GFS fantasy run 1/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/10/2025 at 4:27 PM, Stormpc said: No way man!! USA,USA! Expand Hey I want all the snow lol. I'm saying the USA models are going towards the Euro last 12 hours. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Radar looks better than modeled by hrrr or NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Tired of the filthy snow on ground. Can’t wait to get some fresh snow down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Raleigh wx He updated the B to 2-5 with isolated 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Not sure how accurate the RAP model is … I’m just looking for juiciness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So, what’s the latest for Richmond? We still thinking a few inches, or are we on the outside looking in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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