jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Demeter said: Did it show it one time and you held on to that run? This was one run then came all the way back south. Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Anways 12k nam more juiced up for ric and more rain down near Hampton newport news. Nothing new storms always trend north near start time Yup Love my tone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 so now we have the gfs and nam with over 5 inches in Ric and the euro with what a inch. Who will win again. Hmm USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: so now we have the gfs and nam with over 5 inches in Ric and the euro with what a inch. Who will win again. Hmm USA Brother. Don’t post when you’re upset at one model run. May be time for a post limit again for you. You’re being belligerent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hope everyone in Richmond is doing alright! Back in Blacksburg, but I know how the water thing feels after Helene. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: This was one run then came all the way back south. Whatever It did not waiver as much as all the other models. It had blips, but a lot less than others. I am sure I don’t need to remind you of all the dynamics that cause forecasting to be difficult. Euro is just a tool, but it shouldn’t be discounted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: Brother. Don’t post when you’re upset at one model run. May be time for a post limit again for you. You’re being belligerent. Im not upset at all. Just saying the euro didnt do well with the last storm. gfs and nam did much better thats all. Just not really paying attention to the euro this storm and paying more attention to the usa models. Limit post me Idc. Just pointing out facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Demeter said: It did not waiver as much as all the other models. It had blips, but a lot less than others. I am sure I don’t need to remind you of all the dynamics that cause forecasting to be difficult. Euro is just a tool, but it shouldn’t be discounted. agreed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 ICON sucked for everyone. Rain here and little precip at RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: ICON sucked for everyone. Rain here and little precip at RIC It wasn't very snowy at 18 Z either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It’s the ICON…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Stick by the HRRR and GRAF for this one. Until crazy noticeable changes happen on all models no need to worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, RVAman said: Stick by the HRRR and GRAF for this one. Until crazy noticeable changes happen on all models no need to worry. Anyone have the latest GRAF? Not sure how often it runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 00z GFS was about .10" less in QPF on average for most from the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: It’s the ICON…lol Exactly, it's just an extra tool. ICON hasn't been around long enough to have a reputation and "SEEing" things over the legacy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event. You love to see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said: 18Z GEFS Ensembles giving us 5-6 and staying comfortably below 0 at 850mb for the duration of the event. You love to see it. Wakefield is saying watches that remained in place around Richmond will likely need to be upgraded to a warning. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 945 PM EST Thursday Update... General trend among the 00z model suite, including among the hi-res output, has been a continued upward trend in QPF/snowfall amounts with a slightly more amplified system. There is also better agreement on the potential placement of a narrow band of higher totals in the 4-6" range, generally across the northern tier of the current Winter Storm Warning per the 00z HRRR and NAM. While we will defer the final decision on headline upgrades to the overnight shift, it is looking quite likely that the winter storm watches for wrn Chesterfield, the city of Richmond, and points W will need to be upgraded to a warning for 3-5" of snow. Additionally, at least advisories will almost certainly be needed for a tier or two of counties N of the current watches/warnings, including on the MD Eastern Shore. Higher uncertainty remains over the SE due to mixing/p-type concerns, but will also need at least advisories here as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 5 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Wakefield is saying watches that remained in place around Richmond will likely need to be upgraded to a warning. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 945 PM EST Thursday Update... General trend among the 00z model suite, including among the hi-res output, has been a continued upward trend in QPF/snowfall amounts with a slightly more amplified system. There is also better agreement on the potential placement of a narrow band of higher totals in the 4-6" range, generally across the northern tier of the current Winter Storm Warning per the 00z HRRR and NAM. While we will defer the final decision on headline upgrades to the overnight shift, it is looking quite likely that the winter storm watches for wrn Chesterfield, the city of Richmond, and points W will need to be upgraded to a warning for 3-5" of snow. Additionally, at least advisories will almost certainly be needed for a tier or two of counties N of the current watches/warnings, including on the MD Eastern Shore. Higher uncertainty remains over the SE due to mixing/p-type concerns, but will also need at least advisories here as well. Updated map, somewhere between RIC and PHF could hit 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What's up with Virginia Beach in the purple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We are getting close to now casting time but overnight computer models seemed to be a little drier and a little more south. So I'm making my official call for the airport 3 inches lol. Meeting Richmond,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, EverythingisEverything said: What's up with Virginia Beach in the purple? They believe mixing could cut down on totals there but still believe up to 2" is possible. Saw the below graphics on WAVY, first explains why southside Hampton Roads is tricky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: We are getting close to now casting time but overnight computer models seemed to be a little drier and a little more south. So I'm making my official call for the airport 3 inches lol. Meeting Richmond,. That pesky dry air up this way is what they are picking up on. Hopefully it's a bit overdone. From the looks of the radar, you'd think we'd be getting a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 9 hours ago, chris624wx said: Anyone have the latest GRAF? https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds/status/1877698909721526734?t=Lj-QSKqb4sElkDV9Or4h5A&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: That pesky dry air up this way is what they are picking up on. Hopefully it's a bit overdone. From the looks of the radar, you'd think we'd be getting a foot. It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Latest 12 NAM reduced amounts for Richmond. Accumulations dropped in city and Henrico. Points east and south still good. HRRR however still looks nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Richmond market TV station maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Hampton Roads Market TV stations 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always. Thanks, Bob. Appreciate your insights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's legit unfortunately. I don't think it's possible to start off with a much drier airmass than this one lol. Especially this far south. That said, it's not a clipper and the front side of the snow is WAA and it's super juicy to the south. It may not take too long to get things saturated. Ratios may start off kinda weak then fluff up as we go into the night. 10:1 seems like a safe bet unless there's an enhanced band of lift with staying power. This is a good example sounding of what I'm thinking. Flakes won't be big and fluffy with those omegas. Last couple hours of snowfall look much better though and time will tell like always. Dude is a weather board goat! Glad you stopped in man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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