Demeter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 22 minutes ago, RVAman said: Coming in with the receipts. Love it. Believe me, living in between Richmond and DC…I watch RVA like a hawk. I just didn’t remember euro giving RVA that much consistently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro definitely shows areas north of Richmond (say from Ashland north) a lot more snow than the GFS overall. The main offender that kept trying to slam Richmond with the last storm was the UKMET. It was well to far south almost up to gametime with the last system. Ukmet is once again on the southern end of Guidance and GFS this time is more amped than the rest of the models. Will be interesting to see the final outcome. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Here’s to hoping for 6-12” from here in Henrico to the statue on the boardwalk in VA beach! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Does anybody have the 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yuck for the north west part of the group but KA-CHING for yall down that way. Y’all deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Now I want your thoughts @RIC Airport about this. It's crazy to me how much different it is from the other models. We're only 24 hours away now. Is it onto something or on something in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Now I want your thoughts @RIC Airport about this. It's crazy to me how much different it is from the other models. We're only 24 hours away now. Is it onto something or on something in your opinion? I’d say the EURO is the outlier. I’m leaning more towards the GRAF. I know you asked him for his opinion. I know him pretty well. He will likely say 2-4” for metro RIC with pockets of 5” to the SE side of the city. Now, to the Hampton Roads area I would expect 2-3 inches with locally up to 4” depending on the track of the heavier bands. Let me know if I’m wrong RIC. Appreciate everything you do. (I’m not discounting the Euro but LR models like the GFS/Euro are pretty much pointless now). HRRR, NAM, GRAF, etc are all pretty much aligned) let’s hope for a good good good only snow event for our area. We need it and deserve it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, RVAman said: I’d say the EURO is the outlier. I’m leaning more towards the GRAF. I know you asked him for his opinion. I know him pretty well. He will likely say 2-4” for metro RIC with pockets of 5” to the SE side of the city. Now, to the Hampton Roads area I would expect 2-3 inches with locally up to 4” depending on the track of the heavier bands. Let me know if I’m wrong RIC. Appreciate everything you do. (I’m not discounting the Euro but LR models like the GFS/Euro are pretty much pointless now). HRRR, NAM, GRAF, etc are all pretty much aligned) let’s hope for a good good good only snow event for our area. We need it and deserve it. I agree 100%! But what a fail this would be for the Euro this close in! It hasn't budged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Now I want your thoughts @RIC Airport about this. It's crazy to me how much different it is from the other models. We're only 24 hours away now. Is it onto something or on something in your opinion? This storm reminds me of 12/9/2018, in a way. As the system moved from west to east, the models underestimated the expected precipitation (QPF) as it approached I-95 and points between Richmond and Williamsburg. This led to an inaccurate forecast since the actual numbers around Richmond were much higher than predicted when the moisture came in. For now, I believe a forecast of 2" to 4" is a reasonable and conservative estimate. However, I remain open to adjustments based on radar trends in the next 24 hours and how the moisture moves into our region. I don't think 5-6" in a few lucky spots is unreasonable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 0z HRRR is widespread 4-6” around central VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Meanwhile, 00Z HRRR is coming in strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: 0z HRRR is widespread 4-6” around central VA 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile, 00Z HRRR is coming in strong. HRRR seems to be slighty faster as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I just texted RIC the same thing about 20 mins ago. I expect the snow to start falling between 4-6 pm in Richmond. The last storm also started earlier than projected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: This storm reminds me of 12/9/2018, in a way. As the system moved from west to east, the models underestimated the expected precipitation (QPF) as it approached I-95 and points between Richmond and Williamsburg. This led to an inaccurate forecast since the actual numbers around Richmond were much higher than predicted when the moisture came in. For now, I believe a forecast of 2" to 4" is a reasonable and conservative estimate. However, I remain open to adjustments based on radar trends in the next 24 hours and how the moisture moves into our region. I don't think 5-6" in a few lucky spots is unreasonable. Man I told a friend of mine I was thinking of December 2018 with this storm earlier tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: HRRR seems to be slighty faster as well. Loving those few hours of heavy banding down here before the flip happens. If we can get .1''/hr+ rates that would be optimal! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Loving those few hours of heavy banding down here before the flip happens. If we can get .1''/hr+ rates that would be optimal!If we can keep the warm nose at the VA line SE Va could cash in 6-8”. Big if but the moisture is there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 The NAM is also looking great!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Man I told a friend of mine I was thinking of December 2018 with this storm earlier tonight! December 2018. Man what dark time in my life. My ex fiancé cheated and left two months prior but I remember that storm being one of the few things that brought my happiness at that time. Now I’m married for 3 years with a 2 year old living in my own home. I can’t wait for him to see his first snow that’s not an icy mess like last weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The NAM is also looking great!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 3K NAM was drier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 hours ago, Sernest14 said: No it didn’t- had on average 5-6 in short pump with minimal down to nc border. Very easy to go back and look at the numerous runs that showed that vs a random run towards the end the euro caved to the gfs and nam with near 24 hours to go lol so when did the euro become a short range model lmao nice try... Btw you see the 0z Nam exactly more snow no near ric then south. North trend nothing new 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Demeter said: Did it show it one time and you held on to that run? This was one run then came all the way back south. Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Anways 12k nam more juiced up for ric and more rain down near Hampton newport news. Nothing new storms always trend north near start time Yup Love my tone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 so now we have the gfs and nam with over 5 inches in Ric and the euro with what a inch. Who will win again. Hmm USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: so now we have the gfs and nam with over 5 inches in Ric and the euro with what a inch. Who will win again. Hmm USA Brother. Don’t post when you’re upset at one model run. May be time for a post limit again for you. You’re being belligerent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hope everyone in Richmond is doing alright! Back in Blacksburg, but I know how the water thing feels after Helene. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: This was one run then came all the way back south. Whatever It did not waiver as much as all the other models. It had blips, but a lot less than others. I am sure I don’t need to remind you of all the dynamics that cause forecasting to be difficult. Euro is just a tool, but it shouldn’t be discounted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: Brother. Don’t post when you’re upset at one model run. May be time for a post limit again for you. You’re being belligerent. Im not upset at all. Just saying the euro didnt do well with the last storm. gfs and nam did much better thats all. Just not really paying attention to the euro this storm and paying more attention to the usa models. Limit post me Idc. Just pointing out facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Demeter said: It did not waiver as much as all the other models. It had blips, but a lot less than others. I am sure I don’t need to remind you of all the dynamics that cause forecasting to be difficult. Euro is just a tool, but it shouldn’t be discounted. agreed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 ICON sucked for everyone. Rain here and little precip at RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now