RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: Nice blend of overnight runs still a little all over the place but I think a general consensus is that Metro Richmond and immediate south and east are looking at a good 2-4/3-5 Precipitation transport looks solid now, not spotty with a nice slug overnight Friday/Saturday over top of FRIGID ground. The question is Hampton Rds, which I suspect will differ drastically from just a few miles depending upon latitude. That warm nose looks to come straight from the east Southeast or due south so Norfolk may be snowing with 3 inches on the ground while the heart of Chesapeake is getting a sleet storm and further south into interior Northeast North Carolina just plain old freezing rain or rain with an inch of crust. Still time for changes in either direction but either way it's going to be interesting. Then it gets cold again next week. Maybe even colder than this past week. Impressive winter so far for sure. Yup, this month may end up being the coldest January since at least 2014, possibly the 1980s if this keeps up. And two measurable events within seven days quite a treat for us. Btw, saw this WTKR map moments ago. 8 minutes ago, Stormpc said: It's usually dryer than ground truth. Especially in the summertime with storms. Does a pretty poor job actually. Maybe if better with winter events. I don't know You may be right, I only follow it for certain events of interest. Not sure how it does with storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here is our local map.If that verifies (which HRRR, yeah idk) I'd be ecstatic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12z Nam comes in amped! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Conway7305 said: Lol not for nothin but was wondering why people didn't post this here an hour and 45 min ago haha. Did you see the GFS that just came out l?? Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 @RIC Airportdid you notice on GFS showing LP right off the coast? 998 but it's a feature that wasn't there for a while on GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 can anyone say January 25, 2000… Lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Conway7305 said: can anyone say January 25, 2000… Lol Haha yes! I would feel better if the euro came a little more north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Basically , most of the models have juiced up the storm. NAM ICON, HRRR, GFS on midday runs. Precip shield further north and stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Who was the guy crying this past weekend that the beach dosent get any snow and gonna hang it up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/7/2025 at 9:02 AM, Stormpc said: Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at. what's your thoughts now on amount for RIC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Glad models are juicer for y'all away from the coast this morning. I just don't like warm nose on the NAM down here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 CMC so dry also for RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 cmc euro did shit with this past system. Why even bother looking at that junk. Gfs and Nam did best. Only models I care about looking at. Euro is shit also cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS nailed that hurricane also this past fall. Euro cmc horrible with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: CMC so dry also for RVA piece of shi* model alongside the euro which both did shi* on the past system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 53 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC Airportdid you notice on GFS showing LP right off the coast? 998 but it's a feature that wasn't there for a while on GFS Yes, I did. Sorry I couldn't PBP, I had to step away. Hopefully this thing overperforms for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VARTV Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Latest GRAF run from Andrew Dockery WMBF... Stays all snow in Virginia throughout event... https://x.com/andrewwmbf/status/1877397747797549560?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Anyone have Kuchera for 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 The timing of this event reminds me of the 2/26/2015 storm. It was an overnight event starting around midnight or so and quickly became heavy snow for a few hours. RIC finished with 5 inches and it was all done around sunrise. A few images I saved from that event. February 2015 overall was a really go month, a ton of cold and good snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Anyone have Kuchera for 12z Euro? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 I have to step away soon and won't be timely on posting maps from todays 18z suite. Have quite a few errands to make. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Thanks! I'd lock that in and call it a success! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Here is our local map. 4 would be amazing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hoping we all cash in. from metro Richmond to Hampton roads 3-5 inches. Of course I’m greedy and want 5 up here but want you guys in on it too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, RVAman said: Hoping we all cash in. from metro Richmond to Hampton roads 3-5 inches. Of course I’m greedy and want 5 up here but want you guys in on it too It's hard not to hedge bets win the European model still is so dry and south. If we do get 3 to 5 inches it is a big model fail for the European model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 NCZ012-VAZ084-086>090-092-093-099-100-523>525-100345- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ Northampton-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Accomack-Northampton-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected, with the potential for a light glaze of ice. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations less than one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 VAZ060-065>067-079>083-085-514-516-518-520-100345- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/ Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Dinwiddie- Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen- 231 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 4 inches expected, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and south central Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 HRRR has a 4-6” swath from RVA to Newport News. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Radar looks more juiced than 3k nam is showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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