Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, chris624wx said:

Luckily, I'm a night owl so I can sleep during the day on Saturday haha

Rootin for you and the rest of the Norfolk folk haha! Let's do this!

[RIC Airport]

The 00z GEFS was the best since the 6z run. 

[chris624wx]

00z Euro doesn't look too terrible for here but I can't see Kuchera on the free Pivotal site

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, chris624wx said:

00z Euro doesn't look too terrible for here but I can't see Kuchera on the free Pivotal site

[RIC Airport]

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

VAZ060-065>068-079>083-085-513>516-518-520-091630-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.250111T0000Z-250111T1800Z/
Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Western
Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
327 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 2 and 4 inches with locally higher amounts
  and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and south
  central Virginia.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation

[yoda]

Good luck guys... hope you get a nice snowfall

[VARTV]

GRAF model most nice for Hampton Roads... what's the consensus here about its reliability?

[wasnow215]

3 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Forecasters must pull there hair out when things on the table like Euro being so south and dry

[Conway7305]

6z NAM still has 3-4 inches 

[Stormpc]

Nice blend of overnight runs still a little all over the place but I think a general consensus is that Metro Richmond and immediate south and east are looking at a good 2-4/3-5

Precipitation transport looks solid now, not spotty with a nice slug overnight Friday/Saturday over top of FRIGID ground.

The question is Hampton Rds, which I suspect will differ drastically from just a few miles depending upon latitude. That warm nose looks to come straight from the east Southeast or due south so Norfolk may be snowing with 3 inches on the ground while the heart of Chesapeake is getting a sleet storm and further south into interior Northeast North Carolina just plain old freezing rain or rain with an inch of crust. Still time for changes in either direction but either way it's going to be interesting.

Then it gets cold again next week. Maybe even colder than this past week. Impressive winter so far for sure.

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, VARTV said:

GRAF model most nice for Hampton Roads... what's the consensus here about its reliability?

Hopefully  it is accurate. It seems to be reliable

[Conway7305]

Take the short range HRRR for what it’s worth but some folks in Mid Atlantic  forum are saying northern vortex has been weakening on past few runs which helps increase precip field north. Here is the latest HRRR run

 

[VARTV]

36 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Hopefully  it is accurate. It seems to be reliable

I've seen it to be REALLY good... shocking sometimes...

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Take the short range HRRR for what it’s worth but some folks in Mid Atlantic  forum are saying northern vortex has been weakening on past few runs which helps increase precip field north. Here is the latest HRRR run

 

 

Here is our local map.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, VARTV said:

I've seen it to be REALLY good... shocking sometimes...

I agree. It usually does well. The problem is that we don't have access to it. Only the TV stations. But some Mets, like Mike Thomas (Fox 5 DC), post it a lot, so I try to look for his posts when I can. 

[Stormpc]

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

I agree. It usually does well. The problem is that we don't have access to it. Only the TV stations. But some Mets, like Mike Thomas (Fox 5 DC), post it a lot, so I try to look for his posts when I can. 

It's usually dryer than ground truth. Especially in the summertime with storms. Does a pretty poor job actually. Maybe if better with winter events. I don't know

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Nice blend of overnight runs still a little all over the place but I think a general consensus is that Metro Richmond and immediate south and east are looking at a good 2-4/3-5

Precipitation transport looks solid now, not spotty with a nice slug overnight Friday/Saturday over top of FRIGID ground.

The question is Hampton Rds, which I suspect will differ drastically from just a few miles depending upon latitude. That warm nose looks to come straight from the east Southeast or due south so Norfolk may be snowing with 3 inches on the ground while the heart of Chesapeake is getting a sleet storm and further south into interior Northeast North Carolina just plain old freezing rain or rain with an inch of crust. Still time for changes in either direction but either way it's going to be interesting.

Then it gets cold again next week. Maybe even colder than this past week. Impressive winter so far for sure.

 

Yup, this month may end up being the coldest January since at least 2014, possibly the 1980s if this keeps up. And two measurable events within seven days quite a treat for us. 

Btw, saw this WTKR map moments ago.

 

8 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

It's usually dryer than ground truth. Especially in the summertime with storms. Does a pretty poor job actually. Maybe if better with winter events. I don't know

You may be right, I only follow it for certain events of interest. Not sure how it does with storms. 

[chris624wx]

 
Here is our local map.

If that verifies (which HRRR, yeah idk) I'd be ecstatic!

[Conway7305]

12z Nam comes in amped! 

[Conway7305]

[wasnow215]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

Lol not for nothin but was wondering why people didn't post this here an hour and 45 min ago haha. Did you see the GFS that just came out l?? Let's go!

[wasnow215]

@RIC Airportdid you notice on GFS showing LP right off the coast? 998 but it's a feature that wasn't there for a while on GFS

[Conway7305]

can anyone say January 25, 2000… Lol

[wasnow215]

Just now, Conway7305 said:

can anyone say January 25, 2000… Lol

Haha yes! I would feel better if the euro came a little more north and stronger

[Conway7305]

Basically , most of the models have juiced up the storm.  NAM ICON, HRRR, GFS on midday runs. Precip shield further north and stronger.

[jlewis1111]

Who was the guy crying this past weekend that the beach dosent get any snow and gonna hang it up? 

[jlewis1111]

On 1/7/2025 at 9:02 AM, Stormpc said:

Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at.

what's your thoughts now on amount for RIC

[chris624wx]

Glad models are juicer for y'all away from the coast this morning. I just don't like warm nose on the NAM down here haha 

[wasnow215]

CMC so dry also for RVA

[jlewis1111]

cmc euro did shit with this past system. Why even bother looking at that junk. Gfs and Nam did best. Only models I care about looking at. Euro is shit also cmc