Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Unreal how juiced it is , only to fall apart as it moves east…. Or will it? I’d like to atleast get a 2”-4” event out of it. 

[mikeeng92]

5 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Unreal how juiced it is , only to fall apart as it moves east…. Or will it? I’d like to atleast get a 2”-4” event out of it. 

Yea this storm is more annoying than Monday to me. We have a perfect track low for us with cold air in place but the precip just falls apart. 

[RIC Airport]

AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north. 

1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg.

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow
  Friday night into Saturday.

Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low
pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that
has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low
pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the
SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking
on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing,
precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is
still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest
amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of
frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the
metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band
a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area.
With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have
broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever
the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to
be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer
temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area,
preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area
are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of
greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area.

Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow)
this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will
likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to
the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible
before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the
FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out
regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total
accumulations.

&&

[mikeeng92]

Nice, 2-4” would be awesome. 

[RIC Airport]

At least the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system. The 18z run brings 0.40 to 0.50" of QPF up past Richmond.

 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

At least the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system. The 18z run brings 0.40 to 0.50" of QPF up past Richmond.

 

.5” of qpf would drop 5-6” of fluff, especially with temps in the mid 20s.
12:1 ratios

[RIC Airport]

12 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

.5” of qpf would drop 5-6” of fluff, especially with temps in the mid 20s.
12:1 ratios

Another overnight storm with temps ranging from 29-31°F during the event. Unfortunately, temps will start to rise above freezing almost as soon as the storm is over, could get around 40-41°F later in the day.

[RIC Airport]

CLI was just sent. Under full sun, Richmond never made it above freezing today. 

 

[RVAman]

I slipped and busted my butt today at work on a solid sheet of ice. Nice ole bruise on my buttocks Lt. Dan! 

[Rhino16]

2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I slipped and busted my butt today at work on a solid sheet of ice. Nice ole bruise on my buttocks Lt. Dan! 

I’m still 0/0 for falls right now. I’m sure it won’t stay that way though. Ice falls always hurt for like a month and it sucks!

[RVAman]

ALL of Henrico is under a boil advisory now. Heard it 20 minutes after making a soup that needed water. 

[Conway7305]

8 minutes ago, RVAman said:

ALL of Henrico is under a boil advisory now. Heard it 20 minutes after making a soup that needed water. 

Went to 5 grocery stores in Henrico, all sold out of water. Guess it’s boil time…lol 

[JB Fins]

Figure I have been drinking it all day and okay, but will switch to bottle and boil.  Now, if you are old enough to remember the algae water of 81-82 where they said it was safe to drink but tasted horrible and made everything you made with it taste horrible, that was a tough stretch.

[RIC Airport]

18z Euro, although still south compared to GFS, did creep north from the 12z run.

 

12z Run

 

[RVAman]

I’m just glad we’re looking at snow being able to fall again here within 5 days of one another. That’s beautiful. Several other options down the line too for 2 months. 

[RIC Airport]

First snow maps from Wakefield are out. Best case scenario is 5".

 

 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north. 

1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg.

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow
  Friday night into Saturday.

Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low
pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that
has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low
pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the
SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking
on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing,
precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is
still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest
amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of
frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the
metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band
a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area.
With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have
broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever
the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to
be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer
temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area,
preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area
are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of
greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area.

Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow)
this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will
likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to
the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible
before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the
FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out
regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total
accumulations.

&&

I mentioned a couple days ago just how consistent most of the models have been with 2 to 4 inches. A little bit of waffling but really not much. Let's see what happens during the next 36 hours with the model cycles.

[RVAman]

I’m willing to bet this thing juices up off the coast before pulling out and metro Richmond gets up to 6” locally. 

[chris624wx]

18z Euro, although still south compared to GFS, did creep north from the 12z run.


 
12z Run

 

That's a really fine line between staying all snow and flipping between IP/SN for Norfolk. Don't like being that close!


.

[RIC Airport]

00Z NAM brings a warm nose pretty far north and so we mix. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Just now, RIC Airport said:

00Z NAM brings a warm nose pretty far north and so we mix. 

 

[wasnow215]

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I will continue to say same thing "NAM outside of 36 hours is sketch" lol. Let's see what Icon and GFS has 

[Conway7305]

43 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I will continue to say same thing "NAM outside of 36 hours is sketch" lol. Let's see what Icon and GFS has 

Just north of the city stays mostly snow for now on 0z NAM

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Well that escalated quickly….0zGFS looks  juicier…

[ldub23]

Unless it gets worse tomorrow i may get  2-3

[RIC Airport]

14 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Well that escalated quickly….0zGFS looks  juicier…

 

0.56" at RIC during this run, with surface temps of 30-31 during the event. Soundings suggest it tries to get sleety at the end, but by then, the precip is basically over, so it won't matter.

[RIC Airport]

Canadian, fwiw

[chris624wx]

Still a pretty wide variety QPF wise between the models. Can't wait for more anxious model runs tomorrow!

[RIC Airport]

2 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Still a pretty wide variety QPF wise between the models. Can't wait for more anxious model runs tomorrow!

Hope you can break your 1" drought. But will have to be up early Saturday. 

[chris624wx]

Just now, RIC Airport said:

Hope you can break your 1" drought. But will have to be up early Saturday. 

Luckily, I'm a night owl so I can sleep during the day on Saturday haha