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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

RIC Airport

By RIC Airport,
in Mid Atlantic

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eaglesin2011
eaglesin2011

Picture from Powhatan Va

RVAman
RVAman

I haven’t posted in probably over a year or two but this dragged me back. RIC Airport also enticed me to be back. Are we back boys? We look back. Please sweet baby snow Jesus give us some love here in

Midlo Snow Maker
Midlo Snow Maker

9pm 1.5" 10pm 2.5" 11pm 3.5"

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mikeeng92

mikeeng92

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Unreal how juiced it is , only to fall apart as it moves east…. Or will it? I’d like to atleast get a 2”-4” event out of it. 

IMG_2607.gif

Yea this storm is more annoying than Monday to me. We have a perfect track low for us with cold air in place but the precip just falls apart. 

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

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Posted

AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north. 

1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg.

  

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow
  Friday night into Saturday.

Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low
pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that
has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low
pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the
SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking
on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing,
precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is
still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest
amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of
frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the
metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band
a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area.
With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have
broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever
the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to
be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer
temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area,
preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area
are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of
greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area.

Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow)
this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will
likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to
the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible
before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the
FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out
regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total
accumulations.

&&
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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

.5” of qpf would drop 5-6” of fluff, especially with temps in the mid 20s.
12:1 ratios

Another overnight storm with temps ranging from 29-31°F during the event. Unfortunately, temps will start to rise above freezing almost as soon as the storm is over, could get around 40-41°F later in the day.

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Rhino16

Rhino16

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I slipped and busted my butt today at work on a solid sheet of ice. Nice ole bruise on my buttocks Lt. Dan! 

I’m still 0/0 for falls right now. I’m sure it won’t stay that way though. Ice falls always hurt for like a month and it sucks!

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Conway7305

Conway7305

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, RVAman said:

ALL of Henrico is under a boil advisory now. Heard it 20 minutes after making a soup that needed water. 

Went to 5 grocery stores in Henrico, all sold out of water. Guess it’s boil time…lol 

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JB Fins

JB Fins

Posted
Posted

Figure I have been drinking it all day and okay, but will switch to bottle and boil.  Now, if you are old enough to remember the algae water of 81-82 where they said it was safe to drink but tasted horrible and made everything you made with it taste horrible, that was a tough stretch.

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wasnow215

wasnow215

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north. 

1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg.

  

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow
  Friday night into Saturday.

Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low
pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that
has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low
pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the
SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking
on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing,
precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is
still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest
amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of
frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the
metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band
a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area.
With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have
broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever
the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to
be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer
temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area,
preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area
are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of
greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area.

Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow)
this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will
likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to
the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible
before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the
FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out
regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total
accumulations.

&&

I mentioned a couple days ago just how consistent most of the models have been with 2 to 4 inches. A little bit of waffling but really not much. Let's see what happens during the next 36 hours with the model cycles.

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

Posted
  • Author
Posted
14 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Well that escalated quickly….0zGFS looks  juicier…

 

0.56" at RIC during this run, with surface temps of 30-31 during the event. Soundings suggest it tries to get sleety at the end, but by then, the precip is basically over, so it won't matter.

1.thumb.gif.34f0a0c15071aa1259eac18e0c203a24.gifa.thumb.png.4e035c4d413656910cdadeb1ce294fe8.png

gfs-deterministic-shenendoah-total_snow_kuchera-6618400.thumb.png.d8fbb825c414c5810e9a21b1b864cc6b.png

b.thumb.png.da36fe5e4c14dfd581a19f329ed52e54.png

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