RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, ldub23 said: For SE VA this is a good track. GFS will probably end up more north It's been pretty consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: It's been pretty consistent. Unfortunately the trends are showing less qpf every model run it seems. Could be Euro os onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Unfortunately the trends are showing less qpf every model run it seems. Could be Euro os onto something. There is about 0.40" at RIC, and yes QPF is a bit less than previous run. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 33 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: It's been pretty consistent. Yep more north. I have a feeling this will be an exact repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6z runs much better seemingly for slow in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GFS, ICON and NAM seems to be in that 2-4" range again -anyone have 6z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Starting to look like a slop of a storm down here. Front end thump of snow maybe and then a mix or just a cold rain. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Starting to look like a slop of a storm down here. Front end thump of snow maybe and then a mix or just a cold rain. Bleh . Probably produce 1-2 for you with hopefully a sleet crust to finish. Something to watch at least. Only had a handful of situations to look at in the last 5 years so we have that. Still early. I like where Norfolk is on this one. Not so much further east or south, toward Coastal Virginia Beach Back Bay and further south. You might get mostly snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Anybody have 6Z European model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 33 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Probably produce 1-2 for you with hopefully a sleet crust to finish. Something to watch at least. Only had a handful of situations to look at in the last 5 years so we have that. Still early. I like where Norfolk is on this one. Not so much further east or south, toward Coastal Virginia Beach Back Bay and further south. You might get mostly snow Definitely in a better spot still than you are in NENC. Still doesn't look too impressive to me, but a long way to go. Just feeling a little despondent haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Anybody have 6Z European model? Looks like it keeps precip all snow from here to RIC but its light snow. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025010806&fh=75 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 ICON was bad. No snow at all :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I think the most recent NWS briefing summarizes the event really well. Quote ...All of this being said, still need to iron out some details regarding this event, especially in regards to QPF amounts and placement, which will have large impacts in regards to total accumulations. Both the 00z EPS and GEFS did cut back mean QPF and mean total snowfall a bit from previous runs, while the CMC came in slightly higher. We will have better details soon as we start to get into range of some of the higher-res models, but the main takeaway is that there is a reasonably high chance at this point for a widespread 1-3" of snow accumulation with the potential for higher amounts based on how everything evolves going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z GFS basically the same as 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 EURO kinda same. Dry. If I'm on the east and south side of Richmond down to Toano and sw to Emporia I'm pretty confident with 2-4 inches of snow. Outside those boundaries is a crapshoot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 10 minutes ago, Stormpc said: EURO kinda same. Dry. If I'm on the east and south side of Richmond down to Toano and sw to Emporia I'm pretty confident with 2-4 inches of snow. Outside those boundaries is a crapshoot. EPS favors S & E of RIC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Local Weather Mets, not to sure on amounts at the moment for SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro showing fantasy storm 1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Euro showing fantasy storm 1/20 We seem to either be too far south or too far north. But, happy to see another threat, a 3rd threat had been popping up off and on for a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Really pulling for y'all in this sub for this coming weekend...I know this past Monday didn't turn out quite as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Thanks! Loved your snow squall pics and play by play last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’m expecting 2-3 maybe 4 on the high end here in Henrico Friday into Saturday. A much fluffier snow. Will likely all melt very quickly on Saturday afternoon but will be pretty nonetheless. Thought this one would have the opportunity to juice up but not looking likely sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z euro shows basically almost no precip. Maybe an inch if we’re lucky. I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Unreal how juiced it is , only to fall apart as it moves east…. Or will it? I’d like to atleast get a 2”-4” event out of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Unreal how juiced it is , only to fall apart as it moves east…. Or will it? I’d like to atleast get a 2”-4” event out of it. Yea this storm is more annoying than Monday to me. We have a perfect track low for us with cold air in place but the precip just falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 AKQ going with 2-4" across the metro RIC, 1-3" just north. 1-3" for Hampton Roads once you get S and E of Williamsburg. .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Increasing chances for winter precipitation and accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday. Confidence is growing for chances of wintry precip with the next low pressure system late Fri into Sat afternoon. The deep trough that has been over the area this week will move offshore with a low pressure forming near the Gulf Coast. This low will move along the SE coast Fri, and eventually move offshore of the area Sat, taking on a Miller A track. Models have increased confidence in timing, precip types, and amounts during the 12z suites. However, there is still some uncertainty in regards to location of the highest amounts, which will be dependent on the bands of snow north of frontogenesis. The NAM model shows a heavier band of snow over the metro RIC area overnight, while the GFS model depicts a heavier band a few hours after the NAM and more to the NE/Eastern Shore area. With this forecast package, as there is still some uncertainty, have broad-stroked with general amounts of 2-4" across the area. Wherever the heavier bands of snow end up, the snowfall totals are likely to be higher than 4". NE NC/Albemarle Sound will likely have warmer temps as a warm nose tries to push through the coastal area, preventing higher snowfall amounts. Expected totals for this area are around 1". NBM probs have increased for the likelihood of greater than 1" to 60-70% around the metro RVA area. Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your opinion of snow) this event isn`t looking like a pure snow event. The event will likely start off as all snow late Fri night. With the warm nose to the southeast of the region, a period of wintry mix is possible before turning into rain, especially for the southern region of the FA. All this being said, there are still details to be ironed out regarding the event which will have large impacts in terms of total accumulations. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nice, 2-4” would be awesome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 At least the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system. The 18z run brings 0.40 to 0.50" of QPF up past Richmond. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: At least the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system. The 18z run brings 0.40 to 0.50" of QPF up past Richmond. .5” of qpf would drop 5-6” of fluff, especially with temps in the mid 20s. 12:1 ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: .5” of qpf would drop 5-6” of fluff, especially with temps in the mid 20s. 12:1 ratios Another overnight storm with temps ranging from 29-31°F during the event. Unfortunately, temps will start to rise above freezing almost as soon as the storm is over, could get around 40-41°F later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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