RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Here was the 00z EPS through hour 144, there is about a 2" mean for this weekend. 3" for Norfolk. The snow charts below go out further and indicate a possible threat threat later in the period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 6z GFS 6z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 10:08 AM, RIC Airport said: 6z GFS 6z ICON Expand Gfs only model with sleet mixing in so far. Seems like this could be a 2-4" snow situation overnight Fri into Sat for us. Let's see if anything more progresses today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 ICON says i finally get a winter storm, GFS says wait till 2026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS on its own now but came back in line a bit to the EURO, CMC, ICON, which are all nice hits for Hampton Roads. Better trends overnight everywhere. The BIGDOG doesn't look like it's happening but that's good news for our Southeast portion of the form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So for this weekend storm if it happens for now what do the start and end times look like as of now? My computer is lagging big time with downloading the models. Ughhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 1:29 PM, jlewis1111 said: So for this weekend storm if it happens for now what do the start and end times look like as of now? My computer is lagging big time with downloading the models. Ughhhh Expand Friday night/late evening thru mid Saturday...as of right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 1:42 PM, Stormpc said: Friday night/late evening thru mid Saturday...as of right now Expand Thank you prob what 2-4 from most of the models for richmond? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 1:47 PM, jlewis1111 said: Thank you prob what 2-4 from most of the models for richmond? Expand Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 2:02 PM, Stormpc said: Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at. Expand 6Z Euro AI model has about .30" as far west as RIC. Surface temps still looks cold, a late Friday evening, mainly overnight event. 12z ICON did inch south with the axis of heaviest accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Interestingly, ORF has been reporting Bay Effect snow over the last hour. Not sure when the last time this has happened. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @RVAman12z GFS sliding south from earlier runs, max potential seems to be about 6". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nice run for Central Virginia on the gfs. Looks like it's taking steps toward the other globals. Be interesting to see if the ensembles also shifted south and east. If you're in the Richmond area you want it to hold right there. Hampton Roads needs another 50 to 75 MI. Good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 4:11 PM, Stormpc said: Nice run for Central Virginia on the gfs. Looks like it's taking steps toward the other globals. Be interesting to see if the ensembles also shifted south and east. If you're in the Richmond area you want it to hold right there. Hampton Roads needs another 50 to 75 MI. Good stuff. Expand The Canadian is a hair south of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 4:26 AM, wasnow215 said: CMC looks decent Edit-it ends up as weak sauce and NC gets decent snow as it passes to our south and east and OTS Expand Dec. 2004 + Dec. 2010 redux? I feel like every so many years, there’s a monster storm, and it very narrowly only clobbers Hampton Roads and no one else. Don’t get me wrong, of course. Good for them! They get snow even less than we do! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 4:01 PM, RIC Airport said: @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @RVAman12z GFS sliding south from earlier runs, max potential seems to be about 6". Expand My question is, when will we finally have a pure snowstorm again? Especially after the ice being responsible for this water fiasco in Richmond. We certainly don’t need more ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:11 PM, SoCoWx said: My question is, when will we finally have a pure snowstorm again? Especially after the ice being responsible for this water fiasco in Richmond. We certainly don’t need more ice. Expand No doubt. Avula has to be reconsidering his career change getting hit with this in the first month. Working downtown today, brought my own water but now apparently, pressure becoming an issue in the building and without restrooms, will have to head home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just really really seems like everything is converging for a 2-4" snow overnight Friday into Sat? Anyone say anything different right now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 6:17 PM, wasnow215 said: Just really really seems like everything is converging for a 2-4" snow overnight Friday into Sat? Anyone say anything different right now? Expand That's what I'm seeing as well. Here is some data using the latest GEFS ensembles, and a meteogram with the outputs of the deterministic models plotted together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Seems like the trends so far today continue to look good for maybe at least a 2-4 inch snow down here in Hampton Roads. If we're not going to get an amped low south of Hatteras, I'll take a weaker slider. We had some pretty decent snows in January 2022 from some sliders on back to back weekends! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 8:49 PM, chris624wx said: Seems like the trends so far today continue to look good for maybe at least a 2-4 inch snow down here in Hampton Roads. If we're not going to get an ample low south of Hatteras, I'll take a weaker slider. We had some pretty decent snows in January 2022 from some sliders on back to back weekends! Expand 84 hour NAM looked good. This is at 1am Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:11 PM, SoCoWx said: My question is, when will we finally have a pure snowstorm again? Especially after the ice being responsible for this water fiasco in Richmond. We certainly don’t need more ice. Expand Still wondering the same, maybe better luck Friday night into Saturday for a 3-6" event and no ice or slop in between. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 5:09 PM, SoCoWx said: Dec. 2004 + Dec. 2010 redux? I feel like every so many years, there’s a monster storm, and it very narrowly only clobbers Hampton Roads and no one else. Don’t get me wrong, of course. Good for them! They get snow even less than we do! Expand 1/29/2022, 1/22/2022, 2/20/2020, 2//26/2015, 1/7/2017, 2/26/2015, 1/29/2014, etc. Plenty of examples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 18Z ICON was farther north than 12Z with the heavier snow axis. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 For once the northern trend might work in our favor. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Looks like a solid 3-5 around here with great ratios with how cold it will be fri night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Heard ICON ensembles are more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 9:30 PM, Conway7305 said: Heard ICON ensembles are more NW Expand Interesting, not available on wxbell. Anybody have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/7/2025 at 9:59 PM, RIC Airport said: 18z GFS Expand It was looking good for Hampton Roads until it drove the low through Greenville, NC. Not what we want to see here. Good hit for the interior though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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