wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I would take that right now and run with it! ZERO temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 GFS was a sloppy mess, no phase bomb. But like @JFLETCHERsaid earlier, lakes low is killing us. Hopefully the Euro AI scores. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Looks similar to the ICON tho-warmer tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 CMC looks decent Edit-it ends up as weak sauce and NC gets decent snow as it passes to our south and east and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: CMC looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah I was up to hour 108 when I wrote that. Lol-see edit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Yeah I was up to hour 108 when I wrote that. Lol-see edit I'm surprised it wasn't better, there is still time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 47 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I'd take that in a heartbeat here in Norfolk! Especially after only getting token flakes from this last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 8 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Back side picking up at RIC. Can we make it to an inch? This is Richmond's first 6 inch snowstorm since 12/9/2018. The biggest since then was on 1/31/2021 when 3.0" fell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Here was the 00z EPS through hour 144, there is about a 2" mean for this weekend. 3" for Norfolk. The snow charts below go out further and indicate a possible threat threat later in the period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 6z GFS 6z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 6z GFS 6z ICON Gfs only model with sleet mixing in so far. Seems like this could be a 2-4" snow situation overnight Fri into Sat for us. Let's see if anything more progresses today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 ICON says i finally get a winter storm, GFS says wait till 2026 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS on its own now but came back in line a bit to the EURO, CMC, ICON, which are all nice hits for Hampton Roads. Better trends overnight everywhere. The BIGDOG doesn't look like it's happening but that's good news for our Southeast portion of the form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 So for this weekend storm if it happens for now what do the start and end times look like as of now? My computer is lagging big time with downloading the models. Ughhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: So for this weekend storm if it happens for now what do the start and end times look like as of now? My computer is lagging big time with downloading the models. Ughhhh Friday night/late evening thru mid Saturday...as of right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Friday night/late evening thru mid Saturday...as of right now Thank you prob what 2-4 from most of the models for richmond? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Thank you prob what 2-4 from most of the models for richmond? Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Yes as it stands and is currently modeled right now, it doesn't look like this has much of a chance to produce prolific numbers anywhere outside of the deeper south. 2-4 is just as likely as 1-2 or 4-6. Unless things get together in sync I don't think there's a Max potential for anything over 8 for any of us... but still early and you never know. Anything coming out of the Gulf can do special things, or not. At least there's something to look at. 6Z Euro AI model has about .30" as far west as RIC. Surface temps still looks cold, a late Friday evening, mainly overnight event. 12z ICON did inch south with the axis of heaviest accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Interestingly, ORF has been reporting Bay Effect snow over the last hour. Not sure when the last time this has happened. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @RVAman12z GFS sliding south from earlier runs, max potential seems to be about 6". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Nice run for Central Virginia on the gfs. Looks like it's taking steps toward the other globals. Be interesting to see if the ensembles also shifted south and east. If you're in the Richmond area you want it to hold right there. Hampton Roads needs another 50 to 75 MI. Good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Nice run for Central Virginia on the gfs. Looks like it's taking steps toward the other globals. Be interesting to see if the ensembles also shifted south and east. If you're in the Richmond area you want it to hold right there. Hampton Roads needs another 50 to 75 MI. Good stuff. The Canadian is a hair south of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12 hours ago, wasnow215 said: CMC looks decent Edit-it ends up as weak sauce and NC gets decent snow as it passes to our south and east and OTS Dec. 2004 + Dec. 2010 redux? I feel like every so many years, there’s a monster storm, and it very narrowly only clobbers Hampton Roads and no one else. Don’t get me wrong, of course. Good for them! They get snow even less than we do! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @RVAman12z GFS sliding south from earlier runs, max potential seems to be about 6". My question is, when will we finally have a pure snowstorm again? Especially after the ice being responsible for this water fiasco in Richmond. We certainly don’t need more ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 28 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: My question is, when will we finally have a pure snowstorm again? Especially after the ice being responsible for this water fiasco in Richmond. We certainly don’t need more ice. No doubt. Avula has to be reconsidering his career change getting hit with this in the first month. Working downtown today, brought my own water but now apparently, pressure becoming an issue in the building and without restrooms, will have to head home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just really really seems like everything is converging for a 2-4" snow overnight Friday into Sat? Anyone say anything different right now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick_LeBoof Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Just really really seems like everything is converging for a 2-4" snow overnight Friday into Sat? Anyone say anything different right now? That's what I'm seeing as well. Here is some data using the latest GEFS ensembles, and a meteogram with the outputs of the deterministic models plotted together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Seems like the trends so far today continue to look good for maybe at least a 2-4 inch snow down here in Hampton Roads. If we're not going to get an amped low south of Hatteras, I'll take a weaker slider. We had some pretty decent snows in January 2022 from some sliders on back to back weekends! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, chris624wx said: Seems like the trends so far today continue to look good for maybe at least a 2-4 inch snow down here in Hampton Roads. If we're not going to get an ample low south of Hatteras, I'll take a weaker slider. We had some pretty decent snows in January 2022 from some sliders on back to back weekends! 84 hour NAM looked good. This is at 1am Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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