wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, Dick_LeBoof said: 12Z GFS has trended warmer than the previous 3 runs, but the moisture is certainly in the right place. I assume this would be a textbook Miller A evolution? Latest EPS ensembles have the coastal low much further off the coast than the American solution. Will be interesting to see if the models begin to converge at all. Given the arctic blast, I would be surprised to see us not have enough cold air for this event. Your thoughts make a lot of sense thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Light snow falling here in Henrico. Mixed with sleet / freezing rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Issue with the weekend storm is a Great Lakes low. Those always screw us over keeping warmer track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, JFLETCHER said: Issue with the weekend storm is a Great Lakes low. Those always screw us over keeping warmer track. We have the coastal low, but the GL low messes up the thermals and we get ice or rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 hours without power now. Getting cold inside. No fireplace. May be time to put food outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 46 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Anyone see GFS for weekend. Looks pretty good no? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: 4 hours without power now. Getting cold inside. No fireplace. May be time to put food outside. That stinks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 RIC do you have the ensemble members for 12z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Ensemble mean still pretty decent for 12z GEFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, RVAman said: Yes, I took my break. I apologize for glooming and dooming yesterday. Weather made my emotions high. I apologize, all. Hopefully we can get some more on the back end. You're good. I was also so cautious, but that's because of how things have turned out in recent memory. But, at least the one, two, three, four snow inch drought is over. Now we need a 6" storm to end that drought. Heck, could use a foot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: RIC do you have the ensemble members for 12z GEFS? Sorry, I was out at an appointment earlier and wasn't able to pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 CMC ensemble members Some big hits 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 This evening’s Back end snows on HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: This evening’s Back end snows on HRRR. looks like about an inch additional, maybe 1.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If it fills out like the GRAF is showing I’d say even 2 possibly 3 more. Air is already moist. edit: scratch that. Graf backed off a good amount. Maybe .5-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 51 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: This evening’s Back end snows on HRRR. Only showing about an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Growing more concerned over the freeze/refreeze tonight. Some roads are still a slushy mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Hyphnx said: Growing more concerned over the freeze/refreeze tonight. Some roads are still a slushy mess. Black ice will be big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 https://www.facebook.com/share/p/14ePPFwrCw/?mibextid=wwXIfr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Love snow but hate the slop. Need some more snow and some refreezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 AKQ continues to dial back any accumulations for this evening. Forecasted for about an inch, I will be ecstatic if we get that. It is rare, at least in memory, get that wrap around that the models always call for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z NAM looked healthy for precip build in SE at 84 hr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Starting to sleet in Ashland but don’t see anything on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, JB Fins said: AKQ continues to dial back any accumulations for this evening. Forecasted for about an inch, I will be ecstatic if we get that. It is rare, at least in memory, get that wrap around that the models always call for. An inch is a win in my book. Depends on where you are. South of midlothian I think you’d be lucky to see a dusting. Northwards from Louisa to the northern neck is probably the sweet spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Sernest14 said: Starting to sleet in Ashland but don’t see anything on radar? You sure it’s not the wind blowing ice off of the trees? I thought the same a few mins ago. Power back finally after 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: You sure it’s not the wind blowing ice off of the trees? I thought the same a few mins ago. Power back finally after 6 hours. Yeah, more like a mist away from trees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Vast majority of RVA is without water access right now, and under a boil advisory because the water plant that supplies pretty much the entire city, plus parts of Henrico and Chesterfield lost power, which caused a pump failure. No timeline on restoration yet. Carytown Kroger and Publix apparently have both already completely sold out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: Vast majority of RVA is without water access right now, and under a boil advisory because the water plant that supplies pretty much the entire city, plus parts of Henrico and Chesterfield lost power, which caused a pump failure. No timeline on restoration yet. Carytown Kroger and Publix apparently have both already completely sold out. My mom lives in the city. I drove her over 3 48 packs of bottled water from over here in Henrico as well as 5 gallons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I’m predicting we get about .5 - 1.5 inches of snow on this backend. RIC id bet you get 2 down in Williamsburg. NBC12 is now calling Friday into Saturday a winter storm that would be much more major than this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 GFS major ice storm on Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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