wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Let's go RGEM! So besides the NAM (not counting SREF and recent HRRR) what model doesn't give us good snows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:52 AM, mikeeng92 said: GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Canadian has the Sleet line further south. Kinda looks like it combines the 2 parts of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:02 AM, Rhino16 said: Canadian has the Sleet line further south. Kinda looks like it combines the 2 parts of the storm. Expand Much snowier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:01 AM, ILMRoss said: it will be important to see where the busts/booms are tomorrow across the ohio valley in relation to the model consensus also don't post here a ton, mainly stick to more southern forums but like to check in on this thread every now and then Expand Nice to have a Met here! Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:05 AM, wasnow215 said: Nice to have a Met here! Welcome! Expand thanks! need to change my location, i now live in northside. really excited to get my first WSW worthy storm living here, just a bummer it comes on a sunday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This morning, I don’t think the NWS’ forecast is that bad at all. 4” give or take a few seems correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The European model just now came a little more south compared to last night's late night run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:16 PM, Conway7305 said: 6z HRRR looks better for us. Especially on 10:1 snow totals. Waiting on 12z to run soon. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025010506&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Expand Huge divergence between NAM and HRRR QPF for Central VA. NAM cut QPF in half versus its last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:35 PM, Conway7305 said: HRRR at this range is a decent short term model. basically anything less then 24 hours. Expand Yep at this point, it is smarter to look at short range models. Wow what a dumping on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I know everybody’s in storm mode but both the EPS in the GEFS show some really good storm opportunities next weekend possibly the following. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Let’s get this party started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Next week, potential clean Miller A 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Book it! Snow breeds snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nam just came in more south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Idk the models seem warmer and more North for any really good show to fall. Huge bust potential imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:47 PM, RVAman said: Idk the models seem warmer and more North for any really good show to fall. Huge bust potential imo. Expand Most were south and colder. Mixing biggest issue now-over an inch of qpf most models for us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If HRRR is accurate. We see around 5 inches with more near Short Pump. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:57 PM, wasnow215 said: Most were south and colder. Mixing biggest issue now-over an inch of qpf most models for us Expand NBC12 just said on tv “I have doubts about decent snow around the city but prepare for the worst” not a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Also , just looking at the radar feed looks like most of Kentucky is snow right now, and models were showing ice more into central Kentucky. Will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:00 PM, RVAman said: NBC12 just said on tv “I have doubts about decent snow around the city but prepare for the worst” not a good sign Expand Because they use the nam and gfs for the forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:26 PM, wasnow215 said: Nam just came in more south Expand maybe a tick south however we lost some snow accumulation on this run. If you compare 0z last night vs 12z today. I really dont pay attention to the 6z and 18z suites as they dont use fresh data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:01 PM, jlewis1111 said: Because they use the nam and gfs for the forecast Expand They’re calling for rain to start the storm then transition to snow for like 3 hours then all frozen pretty much until 9 am Monday then heavy rain from 9-12 and maybe back end snow at 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 @stormtrackerAny possible way you can remove my daily post limitation please. Been here since 2010. Thank you. I would have messaged you but its turned off. Sorry to clutter this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:07 PM, jlewis1111 said: @stormtrackerAny possible way you can remove my daily post limitation please. Been here since 2010. Thank you. I would have messaged you but its turned off. Sorry to clutter this thread Expand I am also limited. We are great. I am inclined to think newport news will not reach 1 inch. The streak will be going into next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:00 PM, RVAman said: NBC12 just said on tv “I have doubts about decent snow around the city but prepare for the worst” not a good sign Expand That’s my thoughts at this point too. Big Snows have been slowly sliding off the table since yesterday imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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