RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:33 PM, wasnow215 said: If you have an opportunity can you do the comparison thing again only if you can please Expand On my phone at the moment, but here are 18z vs 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:37 PM, RIC Airport said: On my phone at the moment, but here are 18z vs 12z. Expand Thanks! Still good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Can someone post the Ukie snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:12 AM, Conway7305 said: Can someone post the Ukie snow totals? Expand 18z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 CBS 6's latest map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:29 AM, RIC Airport said: CBS 6's latest map On 1/5/2025 at 12:29 AM, RIC Airport said: CBS 6's latest map Expand Did they cut? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah, seems low, NBC12 went with AKQ 3-6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Some of these shorter range models aren’t great this evening… Edit: Not including the NAM yet, still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah the HRRR has only 2.5 inches :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Big bust potential unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 AM, wasnow215 said: NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms! Expand Stuff on the back side definitely looks better, which to me is the important part since it’s the stuff that will stick around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:23 AM, Rhino16 said: Stuff on the back side definitely looks better, which to me is the important part since it’s the stuff that will stick around. Expand Yes! Way better front end thump too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 AM, wasnow215 said: NAM way better than 18z. Can we be honest?? Like really honest?? NAM is JUST coming into range and HRRR and SREF's are just terrible weather models period. Even during storms! Expand yeah NAM did look better especially on back side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anyone have 12k nam map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:36 AM, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Expand 1-It's just one model vs many others now 2-Not a great model 3-We are improved from 18z with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro? On 1/5/2025 at 2:36 AM, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'll take GFS, EURO, and Ukie, GEM (was improved today) vs the mesos any day of the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:43 AM, Conway7305 said: It is crazy the discrepancy in models still, Euro, RGEM and Ukie, all have the heavy snow band much further south. At what point do we begin trusting the short range models over GFS and Euro? Expand Straight faced-we don't. And then we can grade on Tuesday afternoon and we will lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:40 AM, wasnow215 said: 1-It's just one model vs many others now 2-Not a great model 3-We are improved from 18z with it Expand I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:46 AM, RIC Airport said: I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Expand It's really not about enthusiasm. But we shall see -even the winter storm warnings are much better than the picture you just painted. The verbiage of them and the amounts. am I wrong that the main models are much snowier here for us than the short term models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:46 AM, RIC Airport said: I like your optimism, but I'm just reading the room. Every model has the axis of snow well north of us. Every model has us flipping to IP/ZR and rain for a short while. So we get possibly 1-2" of snow, followed by slop that turns into slush, and then we'll be begging for the back end snow to fall in the right places to provide another 1-2"? Expand Meanwhile DCA is looking at an 8-12" event, while we are southern fringed. Happened on 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024.....1/6/2025?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:48 AM, wasnow215 said: am I wrong that the main models are much snowier here for us than the short term models? Expand No, but I tend to think of the NAM as having the highest precipitation amounts typically. When it doesn’t, I get a little scared. It doesn’t have the lowest QPF here, but it’s too warm so it’s not snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:48 AM, RIC Airport said: Meanwhile DCA is looking at an 8-12" event, while we are southern fringed. Happened on 1/3/2022, 1/16/2024.....1/6/2025?? Expand Ukie, GFS, EURO, RGEM all say we don't get fringed. They still matter more than the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:36 AM, RIC Airport said: Been a while since we've been screwed this bad. Expand NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:54 AM, Conway7305 said: Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. Expand GFS was also much improved 18z-which is what my point is don't those two models alone (Euro and GFS) give more confidence than all the little nickel and dime models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:52 AM, Ephesians2 said: NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models. Expand On 1/5/2025 at 3:02 AM, wasnow215 said: GFS was also much improved 18z-which is what my point is don't those two models alone (Euro and GFS) give more confidence than all the little nickel and dime models Expand On 1/5/2025 at 2:54 AM, Conway7305 said: Ukie shows the best snow accumulations for our area , then the Euro. Maybe there can be a shift south on the short range.Still time. Expand We DO have the RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM ticks to the south and bumps up QPF - 11.1" at RIC on Kuchera. It's a tight gradient just south of there though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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