Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS slowly caving to Euro. We basically have two parts to the storm, beginning of the storm we get snow, goes to sleet/ freezing rain on Monday then back to snow as cold air draws in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 CMC is a step in the right direction as well. Confluence further south. Snow jackpot and QPF max now over Fredericksburg, not DC. Verbatim, not exactly what we want in Central VA, but it's an improvement - the 6" line is roughly from Charlottesville to Hanover County. I'm liking these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Storm #2 next weekend coming in strong on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, RIC Airport said: wow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: wow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Miller A time on 0z! Southeastern and Tennessee forums lit up now…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’ll pay attention to that one when the first mess leaves. anyways, I’m skipping the euro tonight. I’ll see whether I’m disappointed or not tomorrow. edit: UK was good again though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z Ukie!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I get my inch!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z Euro holds! If anything it tics up snow totals in RVA by an inch or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris624wx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hope to at least see some flakes with the back end deformation band of storm # 1 down here in Norfolk, but dang, loving the potential of next weekend's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ021>025-VAZ048-064-075>078-509>512-517>522-041600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster- Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Maryland and central, east central, eastern, and north central Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 VAZ060>062-068-069-082>086-090-099-513>516-041600- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.250105T2100Z-250107T1200Z/ Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Charles City- New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Accomack-Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- 250 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, eastern, and southeast Virginia generally along and north of a Farmville-Colonial Heights-Toano-Accomack line. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6z GFS best yet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6z UKMET holds with heavy snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The latest HRRR look great for RVA when storm starts. I can’t post a pic but go to this link and view the 6z output that gives the longest hourly duration out. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr® 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Seems like we’re set between 1-4. I really hope it’s on the high end. HRRR looks really good at the start but I’m afraid of the notorious dry slotting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Agree, get us 3-4” with a hard candy coating that will last…until Saturday when WE get thumped. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Everything looks great. Would like to get the NAM on board today though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WTVR says a 40% chance of accumulating snow. Wut??? https://www.wtvr.com/news/weather-news/tracking-potential-winter-storm-for-late-sunday-into-monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Post 1/6 Storm, but here is hour 144 on 6z Euro. Something is developing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Did the models trend away from us overnight? Y’all seem a bit more disenchanted/disinterested this morning, and like I said, I haven’t been following along super closely, just popping in here occasionally to get a vibe check for RVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: Did the models trend away from us overnight? Y’all seem a bit more disenchanted/disinterested this morning, and like I said, I haven’t been following along super closely, just popping in here occasionally to get a vibe check for RVA. RIC usually gives us the most hope in this thread. It kind of feels slower this morning. My gut is in a hard place of feeling like I’ll wake up with a dusting followed by freezing rain that gets rid of it all. It’s hard to shake that feeling around here. Models did trend a bit North this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Everything is still solid. Looks like the 12z NAM is coming in good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Snow cancel for Newport News. Next winter will be 1395 days without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Why is the dc forum tripping over the NAM? We arent even in the Nam zone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Snow cancel for Newport News. Next winter will be 1395 days without snow. Bro really? Dont be a weenie... Have you seen next weekend's storm? Stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Bro really? Dont be a weenie... Have you seen next weekend's storm? Stop Yea, a few flurries in Newport News then change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Yea, a few flurries in Newport News then change to rain bro not for next weekend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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