Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I saw it, ugh, dry slot and thermals are bad to basically DC. . Let’s hope it is a fluke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 In all fairness mesoscales don't come into range for another 24 hours. And I've NEVER found HRRR or SREF to be viable or accurate especially for complicated systems like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: I saw it, ugh, dry slot and thermals are bad to basically DC. . Let’s hope it is a fluke. More not in good range for 3K than a fluke to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, wasnow215 said: More not in good range for 3K than a fluke to me. the HRRR looked good but 3k was painful. It is a little early for mesoscale. I agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 FWIW ... map from local Lynchburg TV meteorologists 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Latest ICON 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Latest ICON That's def south right from 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We will be be ok. At least 2-4 inches 5-6 on the higher end. Unless we get absolutely scrooged 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: That's def south right from 18z? Yes! Here was the 18z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RVAman said: We will be be ok. At least 2-4 inches 5-6 on the higher end. Unless we get absolutely scrooged That’s what I’m thinking as well. We squeeze out 4+” I’m good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Mike Thomas from Fox 5 DC posted the GRAF model. Looked on the colder side, also picks up on the ULL. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1875382706227286149 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Mike Thomas from Fox 5 DC posted the GRAF model. Looked on the colder side, also picks up on the ULL. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1875382706227286149 Gets us 1.8” which is less than I would have thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Gets us 1.8” which is less than I would have thought. Yeah, I just realized he posted the snow map. Seems low to me as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 End of the ICON with the second storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS went slightly south. Not exactly where we want it - but an appreciable shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: GFS went slightly south. Not exactly where we want it - but an appreciable shift. Still gets ugly with mixing and even a changeover to rain, but there is a nice deformation band swinging through Virginia on the back side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro is king 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Even if GFS verifies we’re in decent shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's better again then the 18z-been better each run the past 24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Storm #2 next weekend coming in strong on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS slowly caving to Euro. We basically have two parts to the storm, beginning of the storm we get snow, goes to sleet/ freezing rain on Monday then back to snow as cold air draws in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 CMC is a step in the right direction as well. Confluence further south. Snow jackpot and QPF max now over Fredericksburg, not DC. Verbatim, not exactly what we want in Central VA, but it's an improvement - the 6" line is roughly from Charlottesville to Hanover County. I'm liking these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Storm #2 next weekend coming in strong on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, RIC Airport said: wow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: wow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Miller A time on 0z! Southeastern and Tennessee forums lit up now…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’ll pay attention to that one when the first mess leaves. anyways, I’m skipping the euro tonight. I’ll see whether I’m disappointed or not tomorrow. edit: UK was good again though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 0z Ukie!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I get my inch!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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