wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I want to add one more thing. When you are just a little over or at 48 hours before an event and you are that conservative- why wouldn't most of the public who sees that forecast, just go about life as normal and be out on the roads and POSSIBLY risking lives? It's the same way I feel when they wait way too long to put up severe storm watches. I just feel sometimes it borders on being irresponsible. Ok I'm done lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RVAman said: 3-5 inches in RVA. Book it! 3 towards Midlothian, 5 towards Short Pump / West End. This is a respectable forecast right here. It's a blend of the GFS and Euro really. I'm 4-8" if we get a little bit on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I want to add one more thing. When you are just a little over or at 48 hours before an event and you are that conservative- why wouldn't most of the public who sees that forecast, just go about life as normal and be out on the roads and POSSIBLY risking lives? It's the same way I feel when they wait way too long to put up severe storm watches. I just feel sometimes it borders on being irresponsible. Ok I'm done lol. All of 95, 360, 64, 295 were treated today. Either a huge waste of taxpaying money or setting up for the money shot. I firmly believe if the trends we are seeing hold still we will get between 3-6 inches. We WILL see sleet and freezing rain, that's undeniable. The most important thing is the front thump and the POSSIBLE back end thump. If the back end thump doesn't happen, I would go with the 2-4 range as the forecast with the mix cutting it down and making it a slushy nightmare. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: This is a respectable forecast right here. It's a blend of the GFS and Euro really. I'm 4-8" if we get a little bit on the back end. The local TV stations are not as conservative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The local TV stations are not as conservative. See I think those are solid maps! Especially Bernie's best bets lol. The bigger spread at this point makes way more sense and gives fair warning to people about what could happen. Even if we do get mostly freezing rain they should be showing the possibility of more than a quarter inch don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's just nice to have something to track again in between the holidays and the NFL playoffs lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It's just nice to have something to track again in between the holidays and the NFL playoffs lol. I'm a NY Giants fan. Shush. Now, if Boise State had won I'd be a little more excited (I know the games aren't this weekend). I'm a big James Madison fan / alumni. Any G5 school getting into the dance and winning is a big deal for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I want to add one more thing. When you are just a little over or at 48 hours before an event and you are that conservative- why wouldn't most of the public who sees that forecast, just go about life as normal and be out on the roads and POSSIBLY risking lives? It's the same way I feel when they wait way too long to put up severe storm watches. I just feel sometimes it borders on being irresponsible. Ok I'm done lol. I agree, but it's typical of our office to be conservative. The same was done before the 12/9/2018 storm; we remember how that unfolded. LWX sometimes has the opposite problem. Another thing to note is that even the 18z Euro got RIC above freezing at the surface around noon-1 pm Monday. And to get the best snow, we want to be north of the 540 thickness line, and that pretty much camps out from about Harrisonburg to Fredericksburg for most of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I should mention that the surface temperature only reached 33°F for about a 2-hour window before dropping below freezing after the storm passed. This was also when the 18z Euro indicated the potential for a deformation band to move through the area. The GFS also hinted at this possibility, but the location of the band has varied with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The back end thump could be very real, gents. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Yes, I know this is way out in time for the HRRR, but it has the snow at hour 48 (7pm Sunday), moving into the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Makes sense, these always come in early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HRRR makes me believe a giant dry slot will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RVAman said: HRRR makes me believe a giant dry slot will occur. In Chester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 37 minutes ago, RVAman said: I'm a NY Giants fan. Shush. Now, if Boise State had won I'd be a little more excited (I know the games aren't this weekend). I'm a big James Madison fan / alumni. Any G5 school getting into the dance and winning is a big deal for us. Uh oh-I'm an Eagles and PSU fan. I'm from South Jersey originally. Go Birds! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, RVAman said: HRRR makes me believe a giant dry slot will occur. Here is the 00z NAM at that same time. Lets see how it does in later panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z. Good Trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: At hour 60 it's still mainly a mix on NAM. However it is colder. 540 line 30 miles south of where it was at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 RIC gets above freezing between hr 63 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 First time I've seen this on any NAM run for this storm. At our 72 a secondary low develops on the border of NC/Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, RIC Airport said: RIC gets above freezing between hr 63 and 72. Then we fall back below freezing for the back end snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yes, I know this is way out in time for the HRRR, but it has the snow at hour 48 (7pm Sunday), moving into the area. This looks like a nice front end Thump coming in on short range mesoscale model. Curious what happens after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: Then we fall back below freezing for the back end snow. NAM has been trending colder each run so let’s hope that duration above freezing shrinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Conway7305 said: This looks like a nice front end Thump coming in on short range mesoscale model. Curious what happens after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Best NAM run for us so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Onto the Euro!! (Haha-see what I did there?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: I was also talking about the HRRR as well. Looks colder then NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 That was the last HRRR frame at hour 48. I'd post the 3K NAM out to hour 60 and really don't want to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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