TampaMan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I’ll be satisfied with no less than 2 inches. Take it or leave it! (As I tell my wife) jk jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RIC Airport sent me this. John Bernier is my go-to trusty local guy. I’d be happy with this. Hopefully we edge out the 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 31 minutes ago, RVAman said: Mighty quiet in here. Have we lost hope? I actually never lost hope! Two days ago and everybody was down I just thought we were way too far away from the actual event to give up. I'll save it for the rest of my life. Weather models aren't super reliable any of them outside of 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: RIC gets the hammer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RIC gets the hammer I can’t tell if you’re joking or not haha. I trust your opinion greatly. We are nervous yet excited down here. It’s been too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, RVAman said: I can’t tell if you’re joking or not haha. I trust your opinion greatly. We are nervous yet excited down here. It’s been too long. Well, tbh, I can't tell exactly where RIC is by county on these maps...but it looks like yall are barely in the good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z Euro 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, tbh, I can't tell exactly where RIC is by county on these maps...but it looks like yall are barely in the good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z still 7-8 inches in RVA, 11” on northside Looks like it ticked north slightly from 12z. There will be fluctuations like this every run but hopefully general track is ironed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z still 7-8 inches in RVA, 11” on northside Looks like it ticked north slightly from 12z. There will be fluctuations like this every run but hopefully general track is ironed out. If Richmond got 7-8 inches I would literally cry. This will be my 2.5 year old son's first snow storm. I hope it does well. Even 2-4 or 4-6 will make me so happy for my boy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Im actually up visiting my parents house till Tuesday in Fredericksburg so I think we’re good here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RVAman said: If Richmond got 7-8 inches I would literally cry. This will be my 2.5 year old son's first snow storm. I hope it does well. Even 2-4 or 4-6 will make me so happy for my boy. I would appreciate one more decent snow at home before I return to school for my final semester. Who knows where I’ll end up next winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I would appreciate one more decent snow at home before I return to school for my final semester. Who knows where I’ll end up next winter! Our plan is to move to Tampa next January. I hope we can cash in this winter one last time. Been here since 94. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Im actually up visiting my parents house till Tuesday in Fredericksburg so I think we’re good here. You lucky bastard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Im actually up visiting my parents house till Tuesday in Fredericksburg so I think we’re good here. It might be a little past Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, RVAman said: You lucky bastard! Yeah it kinda worked out, whole family was sick as a dog over Christmas so we just delayed holiday travels to This wknd. Now if heavy snow band drops further south we may get screwed but for now it’s safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah it kinda worked out, whole family was sick as a dog over Christmas so we just delayed holiday travels to This wknd. Now if heavy snow band drops further south we may get screwed but for now it’s safe. gotta be happy for us down here at that point haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 RIC can you post the 18z EPS ensemble member frames. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 where does one go to purchase those things ? i'll happily post if i had access to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: RIC can you post the 18z EPS ensemble member frames. Thanks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nice! Most all members show a 7+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lots of those members have 13+” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Nice! Most all members show a 7+ I was gonna say the consistency of those members are just incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, Conway7305 said: Nice! Most all members show a 7+ Wakefield is pretty conservative, but pretty typical for them. Mixing will be an issue, too bad we will be south of the 540 line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’m gonna get a snowball and freeze it for a long long time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Wakefield is pretty conservative, but pretty typical for them. Mixing will be an issue, too bad we will be south of the 540 line. You're very kind-seems like they're leaving the euro out altogether -I'll put 50 bucks down on the over on those numbers in the Richmond area. Way too conservative. Do they at least have an ice forecast and sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: You're very kind-seems like they're leaving the euro out altogether -I'll put 50 bucks down on the over on those numbers in the Richmond area. Way too conservative. Do they at least have an ice forecast and sleet? There will be mixing, unfortunately, and there are many times (not always) when the mixing gets pretty far north. As I mentioned before, we are dealing with antecedent cold vs a strong high in a place in upstate NY, and given the orientation of this storm, we are prone to mixing. Gotta use those Euro maps with caution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, RIC Airport said: There will be mixing, unfortunately, and there are many times (not always) when the mixing gets pretty far north. As I mentioned before, we are dealing with antecedent cold vs a strong high in a place in upstate NY, and given the orientation of this storm, we are prone to mixing. Gotta use those Euro maps with caution. Not saying to not be cautious. Saying there's a difference between cautious and ignoring a very good weather model altogether. It's silly to me but I'll leave that and we will see what happens I would up all those totals by 2 inches and that's still conservative in my opinion. Really think about it. If most of the precipitation on all the weather models is approaching an inch or at least 4/5 of an inch, where is the rest of the precipitation going? Since the ice forecast is also conservative. I know some is just melt off etc. but I just don't think it makes sense, based on the most recent modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3-5 inches in RVA. Book it! 3 towards Midlothian, 5 towards Short Pump / West End. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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