Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: GFS came in with what is a pretty impactful event for the area. However, that changeover to IP/ZR happens quickly. Precip enters the metro area between 7pm and 10pm Sunday night, and by 4am, we are already changing over. yeah, I saw that but the other models are showing more snow. The 12z icon especially looks good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: yeah, I saw that but the other models are showing more snow. The 12z icon especially looks good for us. I saw it was the farthest south it's been. But, the ICON hasn't been around long, I don't normally look at it. At least the "big one" is still on the table on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12z UK is a very nice 6-10” across central VA. Best case scenario. I like where we sit right now with that block being a stable feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Just now, mikeeng92 said: 12z UK is a very nice 6-10” across central VA. Best case scenario. I like where we sit right now with that block being a stable feature. I'll take it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The painful part of the storm is the heaviest snow is so narrow. I’m hoping we manage 2” before any precip cutoff or changeover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 The Euro has been fairly consistent. Here is the latest EPS, a slight uptick from the 6zz run. Just hoping we can squeak out an inch before we flip to ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: The Euro has been fairly consistent. Here is the latest EPS, a slight uptick from the 6zz run. Just hoping we can squeak out an inch before we flip to ice. I would find an inch to be disappointing. I’m waiting for the system to get over land / better sampling before getting disappointed though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I would find an inch to be disappointing. I’m waiting for the system to get over land / better sampling before getting disappointed though. Oh I agree. I'm really hoping to get a solid 3-4" that sticks around for several days with the upcoming cold. There are quite a few EPS members delivering that, including some that seem to think we can approach a foot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I got Dec 2018 vibes goin lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We need the snow belt to shift 60 miles south. Still good for a 3-4 inch snow but would be nice get 8-12 followed by deep freeze. Also I’m still big dog hunting and waiting on our HECS Miller A later in Jan. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I got Dec 2018 vibes goin lol Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Rhino16 said: Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too. I think as we got within 18 to 24 hours it did start showing more and we got nam'd lol. But because of the unreliability nobody was sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 52 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: We need the snow belt to shift 60 miles south. Still good for a 3-4 inch snow but would be nice get 8-12 followed by deep freeze. Also I’m still big dog hunting and waiting on our HECS Miller A later in Jan. lol 49 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Wasn’t the NAM really good for that one? It was consistently on an island of its own showing 10”+. Makes me want the NAM now. Definitely a good feel right now, but a little doubt too. 12z Euro AI came in. I'm not sure what to glean from it. It looks like 850mb temps stay below 0°C for most, if not all, of the event. Surface temps also look to remain below freezing. It's hard to tell how much IP/ZR it has, but it's a good run with about 0.60" of QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I don’t get the Euro Ai model outputs but heard it was really trying to bring a legit Miller A up coast and grazes us on 1/10-1/11 Southeast gets crushed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I don’t get the Euro Ai model outputs but heard it was really trying to bring a legit Miller A up coast and grazes us on 1/10-1/11 Southeast gets crushed. Almost looks like a blizzard for ORF, but good snows all the way to Richmond. Would be a high ratio event, temps are very cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 18z NBM model coming with higher snow totals, certainly an uptick from earlier this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z GFS better for us! Stays snow most of the duration 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gfs is excellent -18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS better for us! Stays snow most of the duration Exactly. The models are coming around for now at least to adjusting to the block. It can't run into it, it has to slide underneath. This is a very good solution for most of all VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS better for us! Stays snow most of the duration 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Gfs is excellent -18z 2 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: Exactly. The models are coming around for now at least to adjusting to the block. It can't run into it, it has to slide underneath. This is a very good solution for most of all VA. That's some heavy snow coming in around 10pm Sunday night! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: That's some heavy snow coming in around 10pm Sunday night! Snow depth is 4-5" area wide. Looks like it starts earlier too. Sunday noon?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Snow depth is 4-5" area wide. Looks like it starts earlier too. Sunday noon?? Timing on this run, looks to be mid-late afternoon. 4PM 7PM 10PM 1AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Timing on this run, looks to be mid-late afternoon. 4PM 7PM 10PM 1AM Wonderful!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I haven’t posted in probably over a year or two but this dragged me back. RIC Airport also enticed me to be back. Are we back boys? We look back. Please sweet baby snow Jesus give us some love here in Richmond. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Welp the 18z euro takes away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I haven’t posted in probably over a year or two but this dragged me back. RIC Airport also enticed me to be back. Are we back boys? We look back. Please sweet baby snow Jesus give us some love here in Richmond. edit: apparently you can only comment once in awhile now? Those on the main thread have so much hate for Central VA for no reason. No wonder we made our own thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is the outlier. Not buying it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, RVAman said: Euro is the outlier. Not buying it yet. It's crazy how for 4 straight runs the euro shows same solution basically and other models trend to you. Now 18z does this. We turn over to rain even up here in Caroline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: It's crazy how for 4 straight runs the euro shows same solution basically and other models trend to you. Now 18z does this. We turn over to rain even up here in Caroline. Sadly I feel like this threat is over. Maybe I’m crying chicken little but when the euro does this it’s always over. Maybe the 0z will change my mind. Gotta love central VA and its climate at this point. edit: this was extreme. I’m moving to Florida next January and I just want my son to experience what I experienced in the 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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