Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Not bad for 6+ days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Will take p28 or p3! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 57 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: At least I have this afternoon’s severe threat to track as a distraction while waiting for 18z! Hard to believe there is a tornado threat in the state on NYE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 14 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 16/50 have us getting 4+ with this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later. 18Z Euro was farther south and colder. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 13 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z Euro was farther south and colder. Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 That’s right I forgot about 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: That’s right I forgot about 2018. Was living in Glen Allen then (live in Moseley now). Big time over performer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016 The 18Z GEFS and the 18Z EPS still have a CHO to DCA tendency in the mean. Unfortunately, there is certainly enough time for a shift back north on the op runs. There is still so much time left before we truly know, but my gut feeling, based on what has tended to happen in the modern era, is that there will be a correction back north. I'd be happy to be wrong, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: Did you not get in on the Dec 2018 storm? 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one! 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: That’s right I forgot about 2018. 11.5" at RIC officially from this event. The 12/9/2018 storm was one of the rare occurrences where we overperformed the day of. I lived out of Virginia for 14 years and returned the summer before this storm. I haven't seen more than 2-3" since, certainly nothing that has stuck around for more than a day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the possibility of snow flurries/showers Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of the 1/6 event. Temps are marginal, and QPF is spotty (<.10"), but both GFS and Euro have had this on several runs. Maybe some conversational snow ahead of the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. Wasn't a good run at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. Terrible-it has a different solution every run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Terrible-it has a different solution every run 32 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I’m not liking this GFS run as much I don’t think. It looks further north so far. Interested to see the next few frames. 2nd threat is still there at least. Tries to pull a Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 2nd threat is still there at least. Tries to pull a Miller A. And I don't think 1/6 solution is finished being baked haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0z Euro ensembles-solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: 0z Euro ensembles-solid hit Looking healthy for storm #1. Below is the entire run. Highest mean so far and good hits! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Looking healthy for storm #1. Below is the entire run. Highest mean so far and good hits! NICE! I think some of those high snow totals are from two storms possibly or is it mainly the 1st storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 An active 14 days in store. I feel pretty good if I was around Richmond or just north for seeing something measurable or appreciable. With room to waffle to the north or south. At least there's something to watch. 4-5 days out is an eternity. Track seems to be locking in. Not going to cut. Nor is it going to jump too far south. This has the looks of a Richmond to DC Beltway special. The cold is very interesting as well. Looks like it keeps reloading through the middle of the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Fellas , it looks like RVA is going to get its first measurable snowfall Sunday night-Monday. Honestly, I don’t care how much is as long as it covers the grass and roads….lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, Conway7305 said: NICE! I think some of those high snow totals are from two storms possibly or is it mainly the 1st storm? If you look at the dates, some show up around the 6-7th, from the first storm. I'm not sure what you can glean from that, but I was also surprised to see how high some members were. But it could also be picking up some of the IP/ZR numbers since it assumes a 10:1 ratio. Also, the 11-13th period is still showing potential. Old news now, so we'll see what 12z EPS does, and of course, once the short range models get within range, they will be telling too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 50 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Fellas , it looks like RVA is going to get its first measurable snowfall Sunday night-Monday. Honestly, I don’t care how much is as long as it covers the grass and roads….lol Hopefully, the airport exceeds an inch within a 24 hour period to break the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 GFS came in with what is a pretty impactful event for the area. However, that changeover to IP/ZR happens quickly. Precip enters the metro area between 7pm and 10pm Sunday night, and by 4am, we are already changing over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 This was the warmest panel I saw during the event, which was at 1pm Monday. GFS does have RIC with a surface temperature up to 33°F before dropping thereafter. Anyone that lives south of I-64 will have 850mb temps above 0°C for a time. Also, Sunday evening surface temps may take a few hours to hit freezing as the precip arrives so we need that to happen quickly to maximize any snow accumulation before the warmer air aloft arrives. Hopefully we don't get too warm Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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