RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The best lift is still north around the i-66 corridor. I am not sure if the rates farther south, mainly south of Ashland will be able to overcome the marginal surface temperatures accumulate. QPF is very limited so anything wasted makes it even more difficult south of Caroline County. Are you suggesting rates wouldn't be good enough to have any accumulation South of Caroline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Most likely still Snow Globe TV for most of the area, if your up in the Early Moring hours.... Temps prob wont even get to freezing in most of the area... So wherever the banding sets up is going to be key if we get any accumulation...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 57 minutes ago, RVAman said: Are you suggesting rates wouldn't be good enough to have any accumulation South of Caroline? GFS has precip arriving Friday night between 10pm and 11pm. It has the heaviest QPF between 1am and 4am. Between 1am and 4am, surface temperatures go from around 36 to 33 degrees in the Richmond metro area. However, temperatures are below freezing at the 925mb and 850mb levels. To overcome air temperatures above freezing at the surface and for the snow to accumulate, we will need heavy precip rates to bring down the colder air aloft. Otherwise, the snow would just melt on contact. It could even fall as rain the whole time if it's too light. That's because it may not be heavy enough to bring down the below-freezing air at 925mb and higher. Will need to watch the trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 @RVAman,The colder air aloft is not as deep before 1am, but that's before the best precip comes in, so it won't matter as much. But, this suggests that there is a higher likelihood that any precipitation will be rain before the heavier rates arrive around 1am. 10pm 925mb temps 1am 925mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 This is the map AKQ put out this morning. Best chance of 1" or more is north of about Ruther Glen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 The Euro has the low tracking along the KY/TN border and then once it gets to VA, it takes an abrupt jump north from about Bristol to Roanoke to Wallops Island by 4am Saturday morning. Not understanding what is making the low take that last minute jump north instead of following the same trajectory. The GFS keeps the low along the VA/NC border, really northern NC, which makes more sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Another NOVA win.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 EURO might be a blip. HRRR 12z short range is saying we get 2-3 inches . Doesn’t jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM is pulling this thing far far far away from us. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, wasnow215 said: No golf at Pendleton in Ladysmith Saturday haha! Great course! That is where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We can’t get a break this winter….NOVA will score again. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Weeklies teasing us again Mid March….lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 59 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Weeklies teasing us again Mid March….lol If you want more hope, one EPS member had a Miller A HECS from 29 Feb to 1 Mar. Here are some airport snowfall totals from it. Areas closest to the coast get its snow on the back side of the low. Fredericksburg: 18" Ashland: 17" Louisa: 15" Tappahannock: 15" Richmond: 14" New Kent: 12" Chesterfield: 11" Petersburg: 10" West Point: 9" Williamsburg: 6" Newport News: 5" Hampton: 4" Ahoskie, NC: 4" Norfolk: 2" Currituck, NC: 2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is probably the last real chance for Richmond and vicinity. Such a quick hitter. Not much chance of a fluke. No room for error. Right now I doubt any accumulating snow gets south of Kings Dominion. Unless things start moving south on the 0Z runs beginning with the NAMS next hour. Looks like a Stafford to Baltimore jack, with ratio snows piling up West and North. Culpeper and Rappahannock County's might be the place to be for this one. And the usual Northern Montgomery into Howard County areas in MD. At least there's something to watch. It's so much easier living down here pretty much out of the game all the time. I never stress but I also never get excited so it goes both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 40 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: If you want more hope, one EPS member had a Miller A HECS from 29 Feb to 1 Mar. Here are some airport snowfall totals from it. Areas closest to the coast get its snow on the back side of the low. Fredericksburg: 18" Ashland: 17" Louisa: 15" Tappahannock: 15" Richmond: 14" New Kent: 12" Chesterfield: 11" Petersburg: 10" West Point: 9" Williamsburg: 6" Newport News: 5" Hampton: 4" Ahoskie, NC: 4" Norfolk: 2" Currituck, NC: 2" Seems like allot to write for something that has virtually no chance of happening but hey, guessing your use to doing it for this forum at this point… lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Seems like allot to write for something that has virtually no chance of happening but hey, guessing your use to doing it for this forum at this point… lol Just piggybacking off of @Conway7305's post on the weeklies for mid March. Just adding some hope, that's all. Of course, it's just ONE member out of 51 that I cherry picked since we are all pretty depressed, as @Stormpc's post clarifies the situation we're all in. I know we're tired of looking at these maps and charts. Trust me, I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 34 minutes ago, Stormpc said: This is probably the last real chance for Richmond and vicinity. Such a quick hitter. Not much chance of a fluke. No room for error. Right now I doubt any accumulating snow gets south of Kings Dominion. Unless things start moving south on the 0Z runs beginning with the NAMS next hour. Looks like a Stafford to Baltimore jack, with ratio snows piling up West and North. Culpeper and Rappahannock County's might be the place to be for this one. And the usual Northern Montgomery into Howard County areas in MD. At least there's something to watch. It's so much easier living down here pretty much out of the game all the time. I never stress but I also never get excited so it goes both ways. I'm not yet ready to give up since it's only 2/15. I am optimistic each winter until about the 2nd week in March, and then, if I see no concrete signals one to two weeks from there, it's time to accept defeat. It's a shame the winter turned out this way, and equally as frustrating that the DC area, which is not that far from us, may end up being the I-95 jackpot region because they successfully nickeled and dimed their way to average. Models even trended better within 48 hours for each event, which is different from how it usually works. Nonetheless, hopefully, there will be better luck next year, but with the return of a possible La Nina it's hard to be too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 28 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I'm not yet ready to give up since it's only 2/15. I am optimistic each winter until about the 2nd week in March, and then, if I see no concrete signals one to two weeks from there, it's time to accept defeat. It's a shame the winter turned out this way, and equally as frustrating that the DC area, which is not that far from us, may end up being the I-95 jackpot region because they successfully nickeled and dimed their way to average. Models even trended better within 48 hours for each event, which is different from how it usually works. Nonetheless, hopefully, there will be better luck next year, but with the return of a possible La Nina it's hard to be too excited. Yes it's not over just looking very bleak. The lack of cold air is what does it for me. Canada warms up nicely into March, so that's what I usually look at. Maybe a fluke later. 1993 was 2nd week of March but that winter was loaded from the start. I lived north of Syracuse for that one and we got about 50 inches with some lake snows on the back end. That's what makes this hobby so much fun. Don't need a 3-day historic event. It only takes one really epic 12-hour event to make lasting memories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Stormpc said: Yes it's not over just looking very bleak. The lack of cold air is what does it for me. Canada warms up nicely into March, so that's what I usually look at. Maybe a fluke later. 1993 was 2nd week of March but that winter was loaded from the start. I lived north of Syracuse for that one and we got about 50 inches with some lake snows on the back end. That's what makes this hobby so much fun. Don't need a 3-day historic event. It only takes one really epic 12-hour event to make lasting memories. Agree wholeheartedly. And the lack of extreme cold and how that doesn't bode well for the rest of the winter. I showed that one member, but the 12z EPS overall did not have much of a wintry look, just seasonal to slightly above average temps. There was still a weak signal around the 24th and around the 1st. I considered driving up to Arlington tomorrow to see snow. I usually stay in Ballston when I do. But I will probably pass on that idea. Maybe I'd think twice if they were getting a widespread 6"+ event. Also, must've been amazing to experience the March 1993 storm, hopefully we see something like that again in our lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Agree wholeheartedly. And the lack of extreme cold and how that doesn't bode well for the rest of the winter. I showed that one member, but the 12z EPS overall did not have much of a wintry look, just seasonal to slightly above average temps. There was still a weak signal around the 24th and around the 1st. I considered driving up to Arlington tomorrow to see snow. I usually stay in Ballston when I do. But I will probably pass on that idea. Maybe I'd think twice if they were getting a widespread 6"+ event. Also, must've been amazing to experience the March 1993 storm, hopefully we see something like that again in our lifetimes. Did you see the EURO for the 22nd/23rd time frame?? Our LAST SHOT. Also you are right about being unlucky. Look at Northern Virginia for instance. After tonight they will be at climate average or above for this time of year if things go as forecasted. And there's another 4 weeks or so to go.... how many places are the East Coast can claim that? Probably none. So in one sense they have gotten incredibly lucky while all others are just suffering the fate of this year's winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm not sure why I even got my hopes up for this weekend, even a slushy inch isn't happening anymore. Unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yeah I saw the Feb 24th Storm on 0z Euro Looks good now. Would be interested in seeing the ensemble members. Let’s hope it holds. Knowing the way these Miller B systems nudge north this year, wouldn’t surprise me if it jackpots NOVA again. They have gotten lucky all winter. Hope I’m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Stormpc said: Did you see the EURO for the 22nd/23rd time frame?? Our LAST SHOT. Also you are right about being unlucky. Look at Northern Virginia for instance. After tonight they will be at climate average or above for this time of year if things go as forecasted. And there's another 4 weeks or so to go.... how many places are the East Coast can claim that? Probably none. So in one sense they have gotten incredibly lucky while all others are just suffering the fate of this year's winter. Yeah, that's the most frustrating part, along with the fact they are so close to us. And that they display the worst level of entitlement on the east coast. I see a lot of people canceling winter, but we've seen sneaky events in the past into March. 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: Yeah I saw the Feb 24th Storm on 0z Euro Looks good now. Would be interested in seeing the ensemble members. Let’s hope it holds. Knowing the way these Miller B systems nudge north this year, wouldn’t surprise me if it jackpots NOVA again. They have gotten lucky all winter. Hope I’m wrong. There was more support for tonight's threat on the EPS. I only saw 4 of 51 members with anything from the 23rd to the 24th. The next threat looked like 29th to 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 I am having second thoughts. I might drive up to Arlington later today. Will make a decision soon. I can't help myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: I am having second thoughts. I might drive up to Arlington later today. Will make a decision soon. I can't help myself. I dunno.. looks like D.C. could miss out too if the northern trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, RVAman said: I dunno.. looks like D.C. could miss out too if the northern trend continues. Yeah, I'm monitoring. I won't be leaving until 6pm or 7pm if I even leave at all. I have a ton of things to do this weekend so going up will set me back so it's also something I'm weighing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thanks again for keeping this thread and hope alive @RIC Airport i had a feeling about this one from the start. I hardly ever remember a clipper type scenario working out for Central VA. Thought for sure the TV Mets would have learned their lesson. Jim Duncan, a snow weenie himself, used to always ignore the models on clippers saying it’s just not how we get our snow. i am almost ready to mulch and fire up the grill. If 2/29 works out, I will be thrilled but once the calendar turns to March, well, I am past it at that point. Maybe we will actually have a severe season this year and the thread momentum will continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 54 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, I'm monitoring. I won't be leaving until 6pm or 7pm if I even leave at all. I have a ton of things to do this weekend so going up will set me back so it's also something I'm weighing. Caroline may not get much now from the way it looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, JB Fins said: Thanks again for keeping this thread and hope alive @RIC Airport i had a feeling about this one from the start. I hardly ever remember a clipper type scenario working out for Central VA. Thought for sure the TV Mets would have learned their lesson. Jim Duncan, a snow weenie himself, used to always ignore the models on clippers saying it’s just not how we get our snow. i am almost ready to mulch and fire up the grill. If 2/29 works out, I will be thrilled but once the calendar turns to March, well, I am past it at that point. Maybe we will actually have a severe season this year and the thread momentum will continue. I too am about ready to get the mulch, lawnmower and grill going. I'll hold out for the first two weeks of March and after that I'm ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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