eaglesin2011 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, Stormpc said: Glimmer is accurate. Looks like it's OVER to me. Especially SE of RIC. Yep, looks like it could be over for thiis month unless we can get a coastal to form & draw in more cold air with one of these systems before the 25th..(even that would prob bring a changeover at some point) the cold air just refuses to come down this way & the precip for early next week looks like to be trying to leave the building now too) A snow shower on the 17th maybe it for awhile around here.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm fairly positive it's over. What another pathetic winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, RVAman said: I'm fairly positive it's over. What another pathetic winter. Euro provides hope for this weekend and the EPS still has that signal around the 24th, fwiw. We have to hang in longer, especially with what is happening now in the NE, where models shifted dramatically over the last couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 18 GFS just picked up on the next threat around the 24th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18 GFS just picked up on the next threat around the 24th. This is the one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Well, the Euro continues to revive the weekend storm. Looks like a 3-6 hour window on Saturday morning from about 1am to 9am. Temperatures around RIC fall from the mid-upper 30s to around freezing before the precip lifts out around 8am or 9am. It's not looking like a 10:1 ratio, so keep that in mind when looking at the snow map. Also, as we've seen with recent storms, there is still plenty of time for fluctuations on the track. I would not get my hopes up; GFS had practically nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I'm still thinking it's over. I may be wrong, I just don't have much faith anymore for snow in this area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 My guess is that we get a a few hours of snow globe flurries or snow showers because of moderate temps & not much moisture .. but hey if a dusting to inch out of it I would call that a win.. .lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Human nature is funny. I’m not saying it will snow but at least it’s something to track now. I have observed that when it shows all rain or nothing we just don’t say anything or something to the effect of “it figures”. But when a good model like the European model shows snow and has been off and on for a couple of days, we say it’s not going to happen or won’t be much lol. Me? I think it keeps trending for Snow in a good way -keep the faith! 2-4” by 9am Sat morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 On 2/12/2024 at 6:22 PM, ldub23 said: This is the one No change on the 18z GFS for Saturday morning. Keeps the snow north of us with some passing showers here. Also, the GFAF model being shown on the TV stations looks pretty bullish for the Saturday morning snow threat. The GFS does, however, revive the threat around the 24th. Right where we want it, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Anyone remember this storm? This map was from exactly 10 years ago, a storm that took the more old-school Miller A track up from the Gulf. We were lucky with this one because it wasn't a textbook setup, and, in fact, the NAO was positive. But we did have an arctic airmass driven by the -EPO that dominated the 2013-14 winter pattern, and this storm developed as the arctic airmass was retreating. Snow started in the afternoon of 2/12/2014, with temperatures in the mid-20s. After about 4-5" of snow had fallen, areas around Richmond began mixing to IP and ZR before a dry slot, and an extended lull began after midnight as temperatures rose to around freezing. The second half of the storm started in the afternoon of 2/13/2014 with a few hours of +SN where another 2-4" had fallen. Richmond officially recorded 5.8" of snow, but many areas west of US HWY 15 had 15-20" as they avoided the dry slot and was able to hang on to cold longer as the storm moved up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 The 18z Euro was a tick north of 12z with the Saturday morning snow. The timing still looks to be 1am to 7am. There is not much QPF anyway, but we'll take what we can get. For RIC, all the airport needs is 0.3" to reach 1.0" for the season. As mentioned, QPF is limited only about 0.20" to 0.30" on average, but we'll take anything we can get if it's snow. I wasn't too impressed with the 18Z EPS, most members have an accumulation tendency (assuming a 10:1 ratio ) north of us. But, this is still something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Even IF it does snow on Saturday (unlikely in my opinion for accumulation) it will all be melted away by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 43 minutes ago, RVAman said: Even IF it does snow on Saturday (unlikely in my opinion for accumulation) it will all be melted away by noon. I remain optimistic either way. We'll take anything we can get, even if it's something like that one morning back in December, that melted within a few hours. There is a boundary layer issue, but there still should be a 2-3 hour period where 850s are cold enough for it to snow, thereafter depends on the rates. It'll be a tough call because the window is so brief, but at least the timing of the day is favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z models looking mainly more dry and more North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 12Z NAM did appear a bit drier for NoVA/DC, but seems to be aligned with other models for our area with generally 0.20" to 0.30" of QPF. This run has a precip jackpot around Tappahanock, Northern Neck area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, RVAman said: 12z models looking mainly more dry and more North. Mesoscale models are the only ones out for 12z and as we all know they don’t come in range til 24 hours out. MAYBE! Lol. Let’s see what GFS/Euro has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS The last five GFS runs have come south each time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, RVAman said: If we score a solid 1-2" off of this system I'll it a win for the winter and be satisfied. We are still a few days out, so maybe we'll luck out. Has there ever been a storm that looks like this one that absolutely just booms unexpectedly? RIC? Yes, not like this but 12/9/18 definitely overperformed. I’m pretty sure the forecasted snowfall originally was 2 to 4 or 3 to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Euro looks even better to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z EURO has about 2 to 3 inches for our area Saturday. Honestly, if we get that then I’ll be happy the rest of the winter…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Hello Short Pump! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Hello Short Pump! Lol There is our local map, from pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Stormpc said: HELLO....RICHMOND!! This is your event. Overnight. Cold enough at the surface. Decent track. On the edge but always room to go further south as we've seen recently. Of course can go the other way but liking the trends for Central virginia. Bring it home. We can afford an even more southern shift and maybe your area can see some flakes, hopefully for us that would also mean colder surface temps. Won't be a 10:1 ratio unfortunately for Richmond based on current data, but even a quick 0.5" to inch on the grass would be awesome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: There is our local map, from pivotal. Ty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 31 minutes ago, RVAman said: That's a SHARP cut off line. Maybe we'll cash in. No chance we see 3-4" with the marginal temps. Like RIC said, 0.5-1 inch on grassy surfaces more than likely the best bet. Hope I'm wrong. But Euro does show 1/2 inch qpf falling in like 3 hours overnight. Could be 3-4” with those rates if it plays out like this particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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