wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table 9 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 35 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table. days out. The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, RIC Airport said: The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z. Exactly-different models and different runs of the same models are all over the place still. In 5-6 days it’ll become more clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Exactly-different models and different runs of the same models are all over the place still. In 5-6 days it’ll become more clear. CMC jumped 1K miles from its 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 00z GEFS thru 00z 2/20, only 3-4hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Euro has a rainstorm for 2/17 to 2/18 like the GFS. This is not going to be the storm we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS at 0z and 6z says the much advertised pattern change was once again a victim of false advertising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: GFS at 0z and 6z says the much advertised pattern change was once again a victim of false advertising Probably too soon to say though. Surface maps not good but 7+ days out are virtually meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days. The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th. P10 please that’s all I ask for this winter…lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days. The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals. can you show animation on p10 just for laughs…..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 49 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: can you show animation on p10 just for laughs…..lol I can only do the EPS members. Unfortunately, from what I've seen, NCEP doesn't release them. But this is the best I can do. Here are some charts from a few places in the bullseye. Widespread 22-34". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Probably too soon to say though. Surface maps not good but 7+ days out are virtually meaningless. still no sign of winter at 18z JB remains optimistic though how can winter come back when it never got here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, ldub23 said: still no sign of winter at 18z JB remains optimistic though how can winter come back when it never got here? 12z Euro had signs as did ensembles. Lots of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: still no sign of winter at 18z JB remains optimistic though how can winter come back when it never got here? A lot of these people on X don't speak for our area. And personally, I'm not a fan of that dude, but that's a different discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, wasnow215 said: 12z Euro had signs as did ensembles. Lots of time GFS was suppressed with the southern stream wave, which the below was as far north as the precip got. Just sharing in case people wondered, I'm sure this won't be the final solution, but quite a change over the last 24 hours. I like that it's still south. Plenty of things can make this work out in our favor with wiggle room on the models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, RVAman said: 6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means. A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 40 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha. Im still hoping for 1 inch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 4 hours ago, RVAman said: 6z has digital blue for our area, not a bad look but not a major snow storm by any means. 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha. 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Im still hoping for 1 inch 12z GFS tries to give us a little snow from the n/s wave, but the s/s wave doesn't really amplify and stays south of us before moving out to sea. Looks more like a cold front now, that gives all our precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 The Canadian is faster with the n/s wave and tries to give us snow showers with that next Saturday. It's much slower with the s/s wave so it amplifies and comes up the coast as a Miller A storm next Tuesday into Wednesday before sliding off of Hatteras. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This still just doesn't look good for us. Some time out, sure. Cold air just still isn't there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 24 minutes ago, RVAman said: This still just doesn't look good for us. Some time out, sure. Cold air just still isn't there. We are grasping at straws. As long as the models show different solutions, I think there is still a chance. But I wouldn't bet on it with how this winter has gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Looking at the Euro, it might be time to close the blinds. It was similar to the GFS in handling the n/s and s/s energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looks like we’re gonna have to wait until early mid March to possibly get a last-minute save. Looking at the indexes, everything is reversing and forecasted to become warm.. PNA is going negative and that’s gonna kill the Pacific. I’ve been really trying to remain positive, but it’s tough. The forecasted pattern a couple weeks ago was absolutely epic but there was too much just warm air in the country. MJO has stalled in 7 which is a warms phase and never makes it to phase 8. I won’t trust the LR weekiles anymore….lol Hope I am wrong and we get something next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 "If it weren't for bad luck, we'd have no luck at all ♪ Gloom, despair and agony on me♪" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 EPS had a signal around the 24th so if there is a glimmer of hope, that is it. But only a handful of members so take that fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 hours ago, RIC Airport said: EPS had a signal around the 24th so if there is a glimmer of hope, that is it. But only a handful of members so take that fwiw. Glimmer is accurate. Looks like it's OVER to me. Especially SE of RIC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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