RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 5:13 PM, Conway7305 said: Whats interesting on 12z for PD was the NS and SJ almost phased but the block was too strong and squished it all. Had block been any weaker may have turned out pretty nice. Still time. Expand The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 Agreed, need to keep watching, the storms always trend north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 A chase to Emerald Isle? I do like it down there. Yep, plenty of time for the inevitable northern trend but let's leave Tidewater and Currituck in there so we can all enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 So, looking at the EPS, I can identify the 18th-20th and the 23rd to 25th as the second threat. There are not many good snow hits for our region, and there are quite a few rainy members. I looked at places like PHL and NYC during this time frame, and some of the ensemble members have them performing very well, so there is still an outcome too far north on the table. My confidence at this time still needs to improve on whether or not this pattern will produce a satisfactory result. But it can still change in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 If the MJO can scoot into phase 8 end of next week it will help with colder temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 6:53 PM, RIC Airport said: The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. Expand There is still hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 9, 2024 Share Posted February 9, 2024 GFS gets some digital blue here PD, majority of precip still south but good trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2024 Author Share Posted February 9, 2024 On 2/9/2024 at 10:42 PM, Conway7305 said: GFS gets some digital blue here PD, majority of precip still south but good trend. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits. But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc. Richmond: 11" Ashland/Hanover: 11" Chesterfield: 11" West Point: 13" Accomack: 18" Norfolk: 19" Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19" Chesapeake: 22" Petersburg: 23" Chesapeake (Fentress) 24" Wakefield: 24" Currituck, NC: 24" Elizabeth City, NC: 26" Franklin: 27" Williamsburg: 28" Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28" Suffolk: 28" Langley AFB: 28" Newport News: 28" Emporia: 32" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 It's like fantasizing what you would do if you won the Powerball jackpot of 500 million dollars. Exciting, then you realize it's never going to happen. But what if it does? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 1:47 AM, RIC Airport said: The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits. But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc. Richmond: 11" Ashland/Hanover: 11" Chesterfield: 11" West Point: 13" Accomack: 18" Norfolk: 19" Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19" Chesapeake: 22" Petersburg: 23" Chesapeake (Fentress) 24" Wakefield: 24" Currituck, NC: 24" Elizabeth City, NC: 26" Franklin: 27" Williamsburg: 28" Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28" Suffolk: 28" Langley AFB: 28" Newport News: 28" Emporia: 32" Expand I will settle for 12.3 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 2:49 AM, ldub23 said: I will settle for 12.3 inches Expand 00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:26 AM, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again. Expand Well, the 00z CMC did 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:26 AM, RIC Airport said: 00z GFS didn't deliver, it says drive to Binghamton if you want snow. Maybe the Euro will deliver hope again. Expand I don't normally look at the Canadian, but fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:33 AM, yoda said: Well, the 00z CMC did Expand Maybe this will be one of the rare times it leads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table 9 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:36 AM, wasnow215 said: It’s funny though when the gfs shows snow every third model run or so we don’t believe it which is fine. But it’s too early for 2/18-19 to automatically think too warm or too suppressed will happen either. Everything is still on the table. days out. Expand The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:39 AM, RIC Airport said: The CMC is the closest to what the Euro showed at 12z. Expand Exactly-different models and different runs of the same models are all over the place still. In 5-6 days it’ll become more clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:42 AM, wasnow215 said: Exactly-different models and different runs of the same models are all over the place still. In 5-6 days it’ll become more clear. Expand CMC jumped 1K miles from its 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 00z GEFS thru 00z 2/20, only 3-4hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 Euro has a rainstorm for 2/17 to 2/18 like the GFS. This is not going to be the storm we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 GFS at 0z and 6z says the much advertised pattern change was once again a victim of false advertising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 12:46 PM, ldub23 said: GFS at 0z and 6z says the much advertised pattern change was once again a victim of false advertising Expand Probably too soon to say though. Surface maps not good but 7+ days out are virtually meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days. The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 8:06 PM, RIC Airport said: Today's 12z EPS maps are the best we've seen before the mid-January threats. It's been frustrating, for sure, so we'll see. But, there is still a decent signal for the 17th-25th. Expand P10 please that’s all I ask for this winter…lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 6:47 PM, RIC Airport said: As I mentioned the other day, there are two opportunities. The 00z GFS and Euro had a rainstorm for around PD and the 12z Euro has already advertised a more southern and colder solution for us so more confidence is needed before taking anything too seriously. Then we'll see how the second threat around evolves in the coming days. The 12z GEFS had a handful of hits, including another member (p10) that obliterates our area February 23rd-24th. Overall the GEFS was a nice improvement over yesterday's runs, but there is still a lot of spread. I don't know if we should give up on the winter with these signals. Expand can you show animation on p10 just for laughs…..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 8:35 PM, Conway7305 said: can you show animation on p10 just for laughs…..lol Expand I can only do the EPS members. Unfortunately, from what I've seen, NCEP doesn't release them. But this is the best I can do. Here are some charts from a few places in the bullseye. Widespread 22-34". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 4:28 PM, wasnow215 said: Probably too soon to say though. Surface maps not good but 7+ days out are virtually meaningless. Expand still no sign of winter at 18z JB remains optimistic though how can winter come back when it never got here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 On 2/10/2024 at 10:36 PM, ldub23 said: still no sign of winter at 18z JB remains optimistic though how can winter come back when it never got here? Expand 12z Euro had signs as did ensembles. Lots of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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