eaglesin2011 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Hell for how the last few years have been I’d cash out now for that result in a second if I could. Especially with the marginal temps still on the 19th… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 RIC jackpot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Now this is more like it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, ldub23 said: RIC jackpot It's too bad it's 300 hours away, but this is the outcome we need, even if there is a little bit of IP/ZR to deal with. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Yep…A bunch of teaser systems now showing up on the models starting the night of the 17th through the 22nd. Would still like to see more cold air move in.. Especially if one of these develop more into a coastal as depicted above.. We rarely ever avoid a mix/ changeover when that happens.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 25 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Yep…A bunch of teaser systems now showing up on the models starting the night of the 17th through the 22nd. Would still like to see more cold air move in.. Especially if one of these develop more into a coastal as depicted above.. We rarely ever avoid a mix/ changeover when that happens.. Yup, verbatim we are in the low-mid 50s the day before. By 1am, as the precip is moving, we are raining with temperatures still in the mid-40s and waiting for colder air. 6 hours later, temperatures are at freezing from about Williamsburg north and west with snow falling. Ideally, we'd be cold enough from the start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Last night's EPS was quite an improvement as well. I guess next week's threat isn't quite dead in the water. I added OFP and PHF charts as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 nothing like being in the bullseye 11 days out.....what could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Yup, verbatim we are in the low-mid 50s the day before. By 1am, as the precip is moving, we are raining with temperatures still in the mid-40s and waiting for colder air. 6 hours later, temperatures are at freezing from about Williamsburg north and west with snow falling. Ideally, we'd be cold enough from the start. Good news is many of us have seen this multiple times in different places, where it’s in the 50s and even lower 60s one day, and a big snowstorm the next day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 41 minutes ago, Shad said: nothing like being in the bullseye 11 days out.....what could go wrong? Better than absolutely nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, RVAman said: Better than absolutely nothing. Also, with the pattern change, conditions will be much more ripe for possible snowstorms in our area than they have been for a very long time. So this adds to the confidence of swing at least a SECS or MECS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Problem is the cold air just hasn’t set in & may not completely for any of these storms… The V Day storm is pretty much certain to be all rain here. Hopefully it will start to pull the cold air down after it.. Then set up the storms starting next weekend… We also don’t want the 20th storm to go too far north .. could start & then end as rain if that happens.. Hate to say it but probably won’t know allot more until after the V day storm passes… At least there looks to be a few more chances in the upcoming weeks…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, wasnow215 said: Good news is many of us have seen this multiple times in different places, where it’s in the 50s and even lower 60s one day, and a big snowstorm the next day. Every setup is different; I can recall quite a few that had warm temperatures before. On 2/19/2012, RIC had 4" of snow, and the high reached 61°F on 2/18/2012. Also, on 12/5/2005, RIC recorded 4.2" of snow, and it hit 64°F the day before that. There are other examples. But, there have been quite a few cases where it hasn't worked out, such as 2/11/2006 and 2/16/2003. We had accumulations from these events, but those storms were far below expectations because of a delay in cold either at the surface, or we got screwed because of warm air at the 700mb level. 48 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Problem is the cold air just hasn’t set in & may not completely for any of these storms… The V Day storm is pretty much certain to be all rain here. Hopefully it will start to pull the cold air down after it.. Then set up the storms starting next weekend… We also don’t want the 20th storm to go too far north .. could start & then end as rain if that happens.. Hate to say it but probably won’t know allot more until after the V day storm passes… At least there looks to be a few more chances in the upcoming weeks…lol The VD storm is rain on the 12z GFS. I'm still surprised it was getting so much support on the ensembles. We've seen last-minute shifts, such as 1/3/2018, 12/9/2018, 12/26/2010, 1/25/2000, and 2/16/1996, but I'm not feeling that. We are in deep trouble if the end of the month doesn't pan out. I always tell people snow season isn't over until March 31st, but relying on March to save the winter isn't a great predicament to be in. That said, March has rivaled December, at least historically, for snowfall averages. It can produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 12z GFS is back north for 2/18/ to 2/19. This will continue to fluctuate since it's so far out. The last 10 days of the month are still the window. There are different pieces of energy around, and who knows which one will even be the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 12z GFS is back north for 2/18/ to 2/19. This will continue to fluctuate since it's so far out. The last 10 days of the month are still the window. There are different pieces of energy around, and who knows which one will even be the storm. I think that is the one to watch. Not taking it verbatim. But for a while, Presidents Day weekend through the end of February has been the timeframe for potential storms. I like the look for now, just continue to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 33 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said: I think that is the one to watch. Not taking it verbatim. But for a while, Presidents Day weekend through the end of February has been the timeframe for potential storms. I like the look for now, just continue to monitor. I added a few maps to my post after you quoted me. And as the saying goes, the models usually sniff out the big ones early. The GFS has shown this storm at our latitude for the last seven runs since yesterday's 00z run. This is how the 18z Tuesday GFS looked when it and earlier runs had the storm well south of us. So, I agree with everyone that things can change since we are still talking 300 hours out. Just hoping we aren't on the fringes and most of us are solidly in the game for 6"+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Still concerned there is no warm air. This PD storm could end up just like the VD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 16 minutes ago, RVAman said: Still concerned there is no warm air. This PD storm could end up just like the VD storm. I'm not going to lie and say I'm not concerned, given the persistence of this winter and the core of the coldest air staying just to our north and west. But, as @eaglesin2011 mentioned, we probably will know how the models will handle the storm around PD day when the VD storm passes. In the coming days, I'll look for clues at the 500 MB level. I try not to get into the nitty gritty details until closer to the event, like around Day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 I was not overly impressed with the 12z GEFS. The below loop starts at 00z 2/16 and ends at 12z 2/23. Some hits, some misses, and quite a few rainy members for that period. p28 was the most snow for RIC with 11", and p13 dropped 5" at ORF, but there were just as many misses, if not more, than hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 5 hours ago, Shad said: nothing like being in the bullseye 11 days out.....what could go wrong? A lot can go wrong, but there were better hits up your way on the 12z GEFS, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 There is the storm at Day 10 on the Euro. EPS will be interesting with this look. The flow is flat looking so hopefully it doesn't track too far south of us. But, verbatim this looks suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 20 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: There is the storm at Day 10 on the Euro. EPS will be interesting with this look. The flow is flat looking so hopefully it doesn't track too far south of us. But, verbatim this looks suppressed. Good news is both GFS and EURO show a storm (Potentially BIG) with juiced up STJ. We don’t want too much of a block, otherwise supression. To little of a block is a cutter or rainstorm. Hoping we find middle ground. NAO block has weakened a little past few runs but still there so that’s good news. Lots of waves coming on shore so no shortage of storms. We just need good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 46 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Good news is both GFS and EURO show a storm (Potentially BIG) with juiced up STJ. We don’t want too much of a block, otherwise supression. To little of a block is a cutter or rainstorm. Hoping we find middle ground. NAO block has weakened a little past few runs but still there so that’s good news. Lots of waves coming on shore so no shortage of storms. We just need good timing. I like the optimism, and I am trying to remain positive. While I understand that even the ensembles are subject to fluctuations, we had better looks going into the mid-January threats. I am not yet seeing that level as both the EPS/GEFS continues to look rather bleak as we approach mid-late February. I want to see a solid hit on at least 10 of 30 ensembles on the GEFS before I get confident. But, we've been maxing out at around 5 or so. For EPS, I think 18-20 hits would probably be ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 @Shad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @Shad I remember the 2016 Storm models initially had a rain storm for 5-6 days in LR a then about a week before the storm it trended colder and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 @RIC Airportdidn’t the Dec 9 2018 big snow come after some pretty warm early Dec temps or no? I thought it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say. The pattern change advertised since mid dec still not happening especially with another big storm coming into California. Im still on board with a perfect winter storm pattern change occuring in late March when it doesnt matter. Hopefully the 18 gfs is just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 45 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC Airportdidn’t the Dec 9 2018 big snow come after some pretty warm early Dec temps or no? I thought it was. Highs were in the 40s for five days before that storm. And don't forget, RIC reached 72°F on 1/2/2022 before 3-5" fell the next day. One of the best examples of extreme warmth here before a snowstorm was the 3/3/2014 storm when RIC reached 73°F on 3/2/2014 and recorded 3.0" the next day. It was a solid 4-8" event for most of the state, then RIC hit 11°F the following day. It was also 69°F two days before the March 1-2, 2009 storm, just as arctic air was pressing down. It was also a Miller A storm that even brought snow to Atlanta. So, those types of situations have had success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 33 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say. As I mentioned earlier, it may not even be THE storm. When you look at the ensembles, if you believe they are useful, there appears to be more than one opportunity for snow around PD day and then beyond that around the 21st or 22nd, which is when the -NAO is slated to start weakening. 28 minutes ago, ldub23 said: The pattern change advertised since mid dec still not happening especially with another big storm coming into California. Im still on board with a perfect winter storm pattern change occuring in late March when it doesnt matter. Hopefully the 18 gfs is just a blip. It has been a frustrating winter for many. We are running out of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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