Stormpc Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices. OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 hours ago, RIC Airport said: People are floating around PD III because we had a KU on Presidents Day in 1979 and again in 2003. RIC recorded 10.9" from PD I, one of the coldest snowstorms in the period of record, rivaling the February 1899 Blizzard. Temperatures in Richmond during that snowstorm were only around 10°F. I would've loved to have been alive to experience it. Here are some photos I found of it. Does anyone recognize these areas? Unfortunately, the 2003 storm (PD II) did not meet expectations for areas south of Fredericksburg, but it was still a very impactful event. I had the AKQ graphic saved for many years until an old hard drive crashed. The graphic had 14.2" for RIC. However, there was only about 3-5" across the RIC area because even though the surface temperatures were only around 20°F during the height of the event, precip was mainly in the form of IP. The storm came in 3 pieces over several days. It started as rain, then it was forecasted to turn to ZR/IP, and then +SN once the coastal got going. Instead, we got the IP/ZR as the colder air filtered in, then got dry slotted. Then, the coastal cranked too far north of us to reap the benefits, something that thankfully didn't happen in the 2016 storm. Perhaps, if and when there is a PD III, it'll be on par with PD I. Well, I was 8 but do remember this storm... Pic 1 is the old Richmond/Petersburg Turnpike Toll Plaza. When commuting to VCU I had toll tickets that you could buy from the bank to go through here. I would get off at Belvedere. Thankfully, this toll booth went the way of the dodo. Pic 2 is Broad Street near MCV (now VCU Medical Center) looking down before that road heads up to Church Hill. Pic 3 is Broad and Pic 4 appears to be East Grace Street. Pic 5 is Broad looking at the MCV Main Hospital Building Pic 6 is also Broad Street between Belvedere and 6th Street Pic 7 is the toughest for me to identify but figure it's most likely Broad looking west, just from down the hill near Shockoe Valley but could easily be Grace or Main, scratch that, gotta be Broad with the street lights, Main never had them like that and don't think Grace did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices. OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? Wow! Is it sad I had to google to convert centimeters to inches? Yes, yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 hours ago, Conway7305 said: I wouldn’t be surprised if that LR storm fantasy storm turned into a bigger storm at mid range or ushers in a bigger storm. Sometime between the 18th-24th. Upper level pattern screams storm. Lets hope so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, JB Fins said: Well, I was 8 but do remember this storm... Pic 1 is the old Richmond/Petersburg Turnpike Toll Plaza. When commuting to VCU I had toll tickets that you could buy from the bank to go through here. I would get off at Belvedere. Thankfully, this toll booth went the way of the dodo. Pic 2 is Broad Street near MCV (now VCU Medical Center) looking down before that road heads up to Church Hill. Pic 3 is Broad and Pic 4 appears to be East Grace Street. Pic 5 is Broad looking at the MCV Main Hospital Building Pic 6 is also Broad Street between Belvedere and 6th Street Pic 7 is the toughest for me to identify but figure it's most likely Broad looking west, just from down the hill near Shockoe Valley but could easily be Grace or Main, scratch that, gotta be Broad with the street lights, Main never had them like that and don't think Grace did. I found these in the RTD archives. They should have listed the location in the last photo, but it's probably the same area. I wasn't born until 6/1981, but I could recognize where these were taken. All the people, the buses, and the snow plows show how we were more accustomed to getting snow than we are today. The below was taken downtown after the January 2016 storm, notice no people, no cars/busses, no plows. Interestingly, there were already 3 to 4 inches of snow on the ground from a 6.4 inch snowstorm that hit back on 2/7/1979. Look at how deep the snow depth got on 2/19/1979. That was also a frigid month. Richmond hit -8°F a few days after that storm. It's too bad we haven't seen many months with this type of cold/snow combo since. February 2010 featured a 16-day stretch with snow on the ground, the longest stretch January 1996. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 11 hours ago, Stormpc said: Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices. OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? 9 hours ago, ldub23 said: Lets hope so I was not impressed with today's runs, but that doesn't mean things won't change come tomorrow or later this week. We need to wait until the pattern evolves. I think it's still early. And trust me, I am impatient. I truly hope we can score in our area, and we should if history is a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 15 hours ago, Stormpc said: Going to be a busy week as we can see the transition now on the long range models becoming more consistent and stronger with each run. Might not get there by the 15th but certainly looks exciting after with possible Southern stream tracks which is probably good for most of us in this thread. Here is to a good week ahead with eyes on the long range. Love that Greenland block of all indices. OT...You see what happened in Nova Scotia? 13 hours ago, ldub23 said: Lets hope so I peaked at the 18z GEFS; this was the best run all day. Had a few good hits between the 18th and 20th. Just needs some consistency as its earlier runs and even the 00z and 12z EPS were unremarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 I just peaked at the Euro weeklies, and everything looks favorable at h5 through March 22nd. These fluctuate daily, but the snow mean map had its highest numbers in about a week. Maybe we can get something record breaking like Nova Scotia, @Stormpc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: I found these in the RTD archives. They should have listed the location in the last photo, but it's probably the same area. I wasn't born until 6/1981, but I could recognize where these were taken. All the people, the buses, and the snow plows show how we were more accustomed to getting snow than we are today. The below was taken downtown after the January 2016 storm, notice no people, no cars/busses, no plows. Interestingly, there were already 3 to 4 inches of snow on the ground from a 6.4 inch snowstorm that hit back on 2/7/1979. Look at how deep the snow depth got on 2/19/1979. That was also a frigid month. Richmond hit -8°F a few days after that storm. It's too bad we haven't seen many months with this type of cold/snow combo since. February 2010 featured a 16-day stretch with snow on the ground, the longest stretch January 1996. That’s my building dead center JC1, where I work, I should say. It’s funny how the area shuts down with an inch of snow where we went to school with it on the roads sometimes. It had to be completely covered back then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0z GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day. Northern VA has more. Still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 0z GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day. Northern VA has more. Still plenty of time I dont like it, we are on the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Doesn’t seem to have much ensemble support. But like you said, @Conway7305there is plenty of time. Just not wanting us to be on the fringes like a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 RIC has a shot but the southern end of snow never verifies, nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, ldub23 said: RIC has a shot but the southern end of snow never verifies, nothing here. The 00z Euro picks up on the 00z GFS idea as well. 6z GFS shifted back north. You can see when looking at the 500mb vorticity maps that the vortex over Canada is farther north over Hudson Bay than the 00z run, and there are some slight timing differences with the northern and southern stream energy before they try to phase compared to the 00z run. This is still 6-7 days out, so the details will probably change. Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 00z Euro picks up on the 00z GFS idea as well. 6z GFS shifted back north. You can see when looking at the 500mb vorticity maps that the vortex over Canada is farther north over Hudson Bay than the 00z run, and there are some slight timing differences with the northern and southern stream energy before they phase compared to the 00z run. This is still 6-7 days out, so the details will probably change. FWIW, the 6z ensembles, only 2 or 3 members seem to like the snow idea, even for NoVa/DMV. The 1st map shows a loop starting 00z Saturday 2/10 to 00z Friday 2/16, and notice how only p10, p16, and p19 are the closest to what the 00z GFS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: FWIW, the 6z ensembles, only 2 or 3 members seem to like the snow idea, even for NoVa/DMV. The 1st map shows a loop starting 00z Saturday 2/10 to 00z Friday 2/16, and notice how only p10, p16, and p19 are the closest to what the 00z GFS showed. Yeah looks like 14th storm jumped North. Hopefully the suppressed storm threat for PD can trend further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, RIC Airport said: Also need to keep watching the 18th-29th period. 6z had a coastal low farther north than the 00z run. So, looking at the rest of the 6z GEFS run, I start this loop at 00z Monday, 2/19, and it ends at 6z Thursday, 2/22. Notice a handful of hits, especially around the 21st to the 22nd. But you can also see some rainy members and shut outs. The map below is the entire 6z GEFS run. Notice how much more snow is on some of the members because of the hits later in the period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 12Z GFS was farther south than 6z, but was warmer and thus a rainstorm for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Seems about right to me.. The cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Seems about right to me.. cold air just isn’t there.. I wouldn’t expect anything wintery around here until around the 22nd the way things are looking right now… Yup, although the 12Z GEFS showed potential next Monday or Tuesday, I am more interested later on. The dates are fluctuating because of timing differences from run to run, but we are generally talking about the 19th (PD) and later. As @ldub23stated, Richmond has a shot, I am not as confident about the chances for SE VA, NE NC as there are more misses than hits on the ensemble runs through the end of the period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yeah, I saw the 19th chance too .. I would like to see a few models in a row keep the snow chance around before calling it a real possibility… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Lots of coastal lows showing up PD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Quite a few hits even for next week on the EPS. Things that makes you go hmmmmmm. Then they pick up again around the 19th-21st at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 19th looks very interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 JB says the cold will be centered over the east this time when the pattern changes and i really doubt the pattern will change. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD. Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run. Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much as North central VA, maybe I am looking at it wrong. Wait till accumulation maps come out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD. Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run. Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much. We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 You know this storm is real cause it’s showing the classic west end to RIC cutoff lol. just want to see a storm keep showing up, with blocking we’ll have chance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: We are fringed once again, hope we can do a lot better. Like you said, so far away and will change. Just happy to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line. I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 27 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Just happy to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line. I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm. I agree, just have PTSD from PD II because, verbatim, we are a rain changing to ZR, IP, then snow. I'm always nervous about that situation here because, about half the time, it doesn't get as cold as fast as we'd want, especially at the mid-levels. But, hopefully, this will trend better for us. Ideally, we'd get at least 6 inches, but something more would be even better. We haven't had a 6"+ snowstorm in almost 6 years, which is pretty long, even for us. Juicy system though. Somebody would get a lot of snow for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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