RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 On 1/31/2024 at 5:55 PM, RIC Airport said: There have been quite a few decent events mid to late month. I haven't gone through Norfolk's data yet, but here are Richmond's February snowstorms that delivered 4 inches or more since 1898. Quite a few events were close to making the list, so this doesn't exactly tell the whole story. I will post the Norfolk events at some other time and look at March as well. February Snowstorms 4" or more at Richmond (since 1898) 5.0” February 26, 2015 7.2” February 16-17, 2015 5.8” February 12-13, 2014 4.0” February 19-20, 2012 6.6” February 5-6, 2010 8.3” February 16, 1996 4.0” February 26-27, 1993 5.3” February 23-24, 1989 7.6” February 18, 1989 5.3” February 16-17, 1987 17.7” February 10-11, 1983 6.6” February 27-28, 1982 4.2” February 13-14, 1982 4.7” February 9-10, 1980 10.9” February 18-19, 1979 6.4” February 7, 1979 4.4” February 19, 1972 4.0” February 17, 1972 5.3” February 2, 1972 4.9” February 17-18, 1967 6.4” February 9-10, 1967 5.6” February 6-7, 1967 6.6” February 14-15, 1965 7.3” February 28, 1964 5.3” February 26, 1963 8.9” February 13-14, 1960 6.3” February 15, 1958 5.6” February 26-27, 1952 5.4” February 24, 1952 4.5” February 10, 1948 10.1” January 31-February 1, 1948 9.2” February 19-20, 1947 12.6” February 7, 1936 8.0” February 25, 1934 4.7” February 4-5, 1933 4.6” February 20, 1914 4.7” February 13, 1914 4.1” February 7-8, 1909 4.2” February 27, 1906 6.1” February 10-11, 1904 9.7” February 15-17, 1902 5.4” February 16-18, 1900 16.3” February 11-14, 1899 4.0” February 6-7, 1899 As promised, here is the Norfolk list, beginning with the most recent. I did 2 inches or more since 4 inches + was shorter than Richmond's. I'll probably do 2" or more for both cities for March, which I'll post in the coming days. Data was less kind after about 1990, and neither city has had much snow in February since 2015. February Snowstorms 2" or more at Norfolk (since 1891) 5.6” February 25-26, 2015 2.1” February 24, 2015 3.6” February 16, 2015 3.8” February 9-10, 2011 2.2” February 15-16, 2004 3.9” February 16, 1996 7.1” February 3-4, 1996 9.0” February 24, 1989 15.4” February 17-19, 1989 5.2” February 5-6, 1984 6.5” February 9-10, 1980 12.4” February 6-7, 1980 7.0” February 18-19, 1979 5.1” February 7, 1979 6.2” February 2, 1978 3.9” February 10, 1973 2.1” February 4-5, 1971 2.6” February 3-4, 1970 2.0” February 29, 1968 5.1” February 9-10, 1967 3.9” February 14, 1965 3.6” February 11-12, 1964 6.3” February 26-27, 1963 3.9” February 13, 1960 2.1” February 3, 1951 12.4” February 10-11, 1948 5.8” January 31-February 1, 1948 4.2” February 23, 1947 5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941 6.0” February 28, 1937 11.0” February 7, 1936 6.0” February 25, 1934 2.0” February 9, 1934 2.9” February 13-14, 1929 3.0” February 27, 1924 2.0” February 5, 1923 6.0” February 15, 1922 2.8” February 5-7, 1922 5.1” February 13-14, 1916 3.0” February 24, 1914 3.7” February 13-14, 1914 4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910 2.5” February 20, 1907 3.1” February 26, 1904 7.0” February 10-11, 1904 8.8” February 15-17, 1902 6.0” February 23-24, 1901 13.5” February 11-14, 1899 2.8” February 16-17, 1895 5.6” February 7-8, 1895 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Wakefield just sent out the January Summary. February may deliver way more snow, at least we hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just my quick two cents. It looks like everything is going according to plan. We knew it would get more favorable after February 10. Doesn't look like we'll sneak in any fluke before that or even a few days after. I still think this time next week we'll be tracking something around Valentine's Day or after. Progressively colder in Eastern Canada. Going to be a blocky situation. Can't really look at any of the operational runs right now. Nothing looks great on those and shouldn't. Patience. We are not running out of time. Yet. I think I'll start paying good attention after Sunday otherwise quick peeks at some of the ensembles and long range indicators and that's it. Enjoy the weekend SEVA/RVA friends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Agreed, Pattern change still on time for 15th, once all is digested, after the 18th is when our chances will be best. Haven’t seen a pattern like this since 2016. Weeklies continue to show favorable patten progressing through mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 16 hours ago, RIC Airport said: As promised, here is the Norfolk list, beginning with the most recent. I did 2 inches or more since 4 inches + was shorter than Richmond's. I'll probably do 2" or more for both cities for March, which I'll post in the coming days. Data was less kind after about 1990, and neither city has had much snow in February since 2015. February Snowstorms 2" or more at Norfolk (since 1891) 5.6” February 25-26, 2015 2.1” February 24, 2015 3.6” February 16, 2015 3.8” February 9-10, 2011 2.2” February 15-16, 2004 3.9” February 16, 1996 7.1” February 3-4, 1996 9.0” February 24, 1989 15.4” February 17-19, 1989 5.2” February 5-6, 1984 6.5” February 9-10, 1980 12.4” February 6-7, 1980 7.0” February 18-19, 1979 5.1” February 7, 1979 6.2” February 2, 1978 3.9” February 10, 1973 2.1” February 4-5, 1971 2.6” February 3-4, 1970 2.0” February 29, 1968 5.1” February 9-10, 1967 3.9” February 14, 1965 3.6” February 11-12, 1964 6.3” February 26-27, 1963 3.9” February 13, 1960 2.1” February 3, 1951 12.4” February 10-11, 1948 5.8” January 31-February 1, 1948 4.2” February 23, 1947 5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941 6.0” February 28, 1937 11.0” February 7, 1936 6.0” February 25, 1934 2.0” February 9, 1934 2.9” February 13-14, 1929 3.0” February 27, 1924 2.0” February 5, 1923 6.0” February 15, 1922 2.8” February 5-7, 1922 5.1” February 13-14, 1916 3.0” February 24, 1914 3.7” February 13-14, 1914 4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910 2.5” February 20, 1907 3.1” February 26, 1904 7.0” February 10-11, 1904 8.8” February 15-17, 1902 6.0” February 23-24, 1901 13.5” February 11-14, 1899 2.8” February 16-17, 1895 5.6” February 7-8, 1895 I'm not from the area but was reading through this list and I'm shocked at those 1989 numbers. I had no idea Norfolk had all that snow that year! There wasn't any up here. Anyway, interesting list, I enjoyed reading it and hope you post the March ones. I've been curious about climo there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'm not from the area but was reading through this list and I'm shocked at those 1989 numbers. I had no idea Norfolk had all that snow that year! There wasn't any up here. Anyway, interesting list, I enjoyed reading it and hope you post the March ones. I've been curious about climo there. Yeah, it can be a weird place. I know that was just the February list, but there seems to be a greater return in La Nina winters than at Richmond, where there is clearly an El Nino correlation to higher snowfall. Looking at 2021-22, 2017-18, and 2010-11, and 1988-89 as just several examples. ORF was also one of the few stations that had an increase in its average when the 1991-2020 30-year climate data was published. Also, many in this forum probably didn't realize that ORF got about as much snow in January 2022 as DCA did. Not to mention getting two blizzards two years in a row and close to getting a third at the end of January 2022, as AKQ only included the Eastern Shore in the 1/28/2022 Blizzard Warning. 1/3/2018 1/7/2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 LR snow maps are looking better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 19 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: LR snow maps are looking better Yup, and new hits popped up on the 12z EPS. Hopefully, these charts light up in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 It's a very odd area down here. Southern Hampton Roads Northeast North carolina. I had between 8 and 9 inches of snow from that January event in 2022. Actually Shoveled the driveway. Stuck to the road and pavement very well. So it does snow here. And it can happen. I don't remember the last time DCA had 8 inches of snow during one event. Probably not since I moved out of that area in 2019. Very narrow stripe though. A good 6 inches was still prevalent down to Grandy but once south of Grandy (like a mile) there was basically nothing. Up to Moyock and into Chesapeake a few inches less as well. Most of the times during marginal events my neighborhood gets nothing while just a quarter mile inland can have a few inches. I got lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it. A few times I've had nothing at my house while the front of the neighborhood, which is just a few hundred yards away, has had a dusting. I need the winds coming off the land. Any part of the Sound and I'm toast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 30 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yup, and new hits popped up on the 12z EPS. Hopefully, these charts light up in the coming days. Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, Stormpc said: It's a very odd area down here. Southern Hampton Roads Northeast North carolina. I had between 8 and 9 inches of snow from that January event in 2022. Actually Shoveled the driveway. Stuck to the road and pavement very well. So it does snow here. And it can happen. I don't remember the last time DCA had 8 inches of snow during one event. Probably not since I moved out of that area in 2019. Very narrow stripe though. A good 6 inches was still prevalent down to Grandy but once south of Grandy (like a mile) there was basically nothing. Up to Moyock and into Chesapeake a few inches less as well. Most of the times during marginal events my neighborhood gets nothing while just a quarter mile inland can have a few inches. I got lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it. A few times I've had nothing at my house while the front of the neighborhood, which is just a few hundred yards away, has had a dusting. I need the winds coming off the land. Any part of the Sound and I'm toast. The winter of 2021-22 was frustrating, but there were numerous opportunities. I remember us tracking legit threats every week that were all happening on the weekends that January, from the 1/3/22 storm that trended too far north at the last minute to the two storms that tracked too far east barely giving coastal areas snow, but not enough in Richmond. Also, the 1/16/22 storm tracked up the Piedmont while we were in the upper teens to low 20s at the start but managed to reach the 50s six hours later. A couple maps I saved from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 21 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The winter of 2021-22 was frustrating, but there were numerous opportunities. I remember us tracking legit threats every week that were all happening on the weekends that January, from the 1/3/22 storm that trended too far north at the last minute to the two the storms that tracked too far east barely giving coastal areas snow, but not enough in Richmond. Also, the 1/16/22 storm tracked up the Piedmont while we were in the upper teens to low 20s at the start but managed to reach the 50s six hours later. A couple maps I saved from that event. 1/29/2014 is another SE VA/NE NC snowstorm that often gets overlooked, @Stormpc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, JFLETCHER said: Today the LR looks good. Obviously, we don't want to take into account actual model runs, but primarily ensembles. Gotta say from Presidents Day through early March, I think we can score. What I would love is a good ole fashioned Miller A to come right up the coast and get us all in the action. Please no Miller Bs-they screw us 9 out of 10 times at our latitude unless the transfer happens in TN. I'm excited about this timeframe, just have to be patient. I agree. I wish we could return to the old days when the Miller A's happened regularly. Another good scenario is a southern slider (some call it Miller C), like 12/9/2018, 2/16/2015, or 1/30/2010, where there is one moisture slug and no mixing issues. OTTOMH, the last Miller A's that worked out were 2/12/2014 and 3/1/2009. We are getting more hybrids now, like 1/23/2016. I also am okay with those that form off the SC/GA coast and move north, like 1/25/2000 or 2/16/1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 1/29/2014 is another SE VA/NE NC snowstorm that often gets overlooked, @Stormpc. That's another very tight gradient. I'm sure I was grieving that storm, missing it to my south. I still think we're going to have another good shot or two. Especially up where you are. Things are looking pretty good I must say. Possible suppressed pattern. Not bad for me. Not great for further north. Pretty rough to go from 7-8 inches in Williamsburg and barely an inch around richmond. That's tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1/23/16, from what I remember we got pretty lucky in Richmond. Day 1 was a bust with plenty of sleet and mixing. Then on day 2 the wraparound over performed and put on an amazing show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: 1/23/16, from what I remember we got pretty lucky in Richmond. Day 1 was a bust with plenty of sleet and mixing. Then on day 2 the wraparound over performed and put on an amazing show. Yes you guys were killing it with the wrap around while places just east of DC and Baltimore could never get back in to the snow band. They got the initial thump then it hung out just to the west and snaked down through Richmond and Southern VA. I was lucky enough to be West enough to get back into that 2nd act of the storm which was awesome. Wind blown powder. Great day that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: That's another very tight gradient. I'm sure I was grieving that storm, missing it to my south. I still think we're going to have another good shot or two. Especially up where you are. Things are looking pretty good I must say. Possible suppressed pattern. Not bad for me. Not great for further north. Pretty rough to go from 7-8 inches in Williamsburg and barely an inch around richmond. That's tight. Yeah, and it happens more often than you'd think. Snowstorms like 1/4/2018, 1/29/2014, 12/26/2010, 12/26/2004, and 2/6/1980 where occasions where someone in Hampton Roads got 10-15"+, while RIC only got T-3".Sometimes, we share, such as 1/7/2017, 2/26/2015, 1/3/2002 and 2/18/1989, where RIC gets 5-8", but Hampton Roads is in the bullseye. 1 hour ago, mikeeng92 said: 1/23/16, from what I remember we got pretty lucky in Richmond. Day 1 was a bust with plenty of sleet and mixing. Then on day 2 the wraparound over performed and put on an amazing show. Yeah, the coastal formed and stalled long enough, and the death band formed and stayed right along I-95. Part 1 was just light to moderate snow with the overrunning before we had precip-type issues. RIC still picked up 6.1" just from that, but it was far less than we were hoping for at the time, and having to wait on the low to crank up as the models indicated, was aggravating and almost suicidal, but it worked out. I was bracing for a repeat of 12/18/2009 or 2/16/2003, where we only got the initial and didn't get anything from the coastal like the models showed. 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Yes you guys were killing it with the wrap around while places just east of DC and Baltimore could never get back in to the snow band. They got the initial thump then it hung out just to the west and snaked down through Richmond and Southern VA. I was lucky enough to be West enough to get back into that 2nd act of the storm which was awesome. Wind blown powder. Great day that was. RIC missed reaching blizzard criteria because the one hour in the middle gusted to 32mph, not 35mph. We needed 3 consecutive hours of 35mph+. *Year is wrong on the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 The 00z GFS has a storm for Valentine's Day. Plenty of time to watch, just happy to see storms popping up in the LR. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 6z and 12z GFS were indeed less enjoyable than the 00z run. 6z GEFS had a handful of hits, and 12z GEFS even fewer. Everything at H5 still looks good toward the end, so hopefully, this was just a fluke run, and the EPS offers more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Nothing notable, in terms of snowstorms at least, on the 12z EPS either. At the end of the run, we still have nice -NAO, -AO, and -EPO, a western ridge, and a split flow. There is also a nice vortex over SE Canada and lower highs in the 50/50 region, so it's hard to see why this "look" won't translate to a storm at some point, especially when all the teleconnections are where we want them to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Nothing notable, in terms of snowstorms at least, on the 12z EPS either. At the end of the run, we still have nice -NAO, -AO, and -EPO, a western ridge, and a split flow. There is also a nice vortex of SE Canada and lower highs in the 50/50 region, so it's hard to see why this "look" won't translate to a storm at some point, especially when all the teleconnections are where we want them to be. I think there will be a ton of tracking starting a week from now and hopefully we cash in by President’s Day and beyond! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 The 00z GFS brought back a storm. This time, it's on 2/18. I'm sure there will continue to be fluctuations for at least the next 7 -10 days as we approach the next favorable "window" for snow. Posting the maps to keep hope alive, recognizing that 6z could take it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 LR models look dry for the most part, hoping that will change in time. Would hate to waste a good pattern change with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Conway7305 said: LR models look dry for the most part, hoping that will change in time. Would hate to waste a good pattern change with no precip. Shows some snow around the 16th ish. It’s gonna snow/ice. Conditions will be to ripe for it not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 A few big hits on the 12Z GEFS on the 18th-19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 55 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: A few big hits on the 12Z GEFS on the 18th-19th. People are floating around PD III because we had a KU on Presidents Day in 1979 and again in 2003. RIC recorded 10.9" from PD I, one of the coldest snowstorms in the period of record, rivaling the February 1899 Blizzard. Temperatures in Richmond during that snowstorm were only around 10°F. I would've loved to have been alive to experience it. Here are some photos I found of it. Does anyone recognize these areas? Unfortunately, the 2003 storm (PD II) did not meet expectations for areas south of Fredericksburg, but it was still a very impactful event. I had the AKQ graphic saved for many years until an old hard drive crashed. The graphic had 14.2" for RIC. However, there was only about 3-5" across the RIC area because even though the surface temperatures were only around 20°F during the height of the event, precip was mainly in the form of IP. The storm came in 3 pieces over several days. It started as rain, then it was forecasted to turn to ZR/IP, and then +SN once the coastal got going. Instead, we got the IP/ZR as the colder air filtered in, then got dry slotted. Then, the coastal cranked too far north of us to reap the benefits, something that thankfully didn't happen in the 2016 storm. Perhaps, if and when there is a PD III, it'll be on par with PD I. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Still a great look at H5, but only a few minor hits on the EPS snow maps from about the 14th to the 19th. One thing that I am starting to get concerned about is the lack of true arctic air I'm seeing at the end of these ensemble runs, but perhaps with the right timing it can get "cold enough" if we get some good dynamics and a good storm track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 42 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: People are floating around PD III because we had a KU on Presidents Day in 1979 and again in 2003. RIC recorded 10.9" from PD I, one of the coldest snowstorms in the period of record, rivaling the February 1899 Blizzard. Temperatures in Richmond during that snowstorm were only around 10°F. I would've loved to have been alive to experience it. Here are some photos I found of it. Does anyone recognize these areas? Unfortunately, the 2003 storm (PD II) did not meet expectations for areas south of Fredericksburg, but it was still a very impactful event. I had the AKQ graphic saved for many years until an old hard drive crashed. The graphic had 14.2" for RIC. However, there was only about 3-5" across the RIC area because even though the surface temperatures were only around 20°F during the height of the event, precip was mainly in the form of IP. The storm came in 3 pieces over several days. It started as rain, then it was forecasted to turn to ZR/IP, and then +SN once the coastal got going. Instead, we got the IP/ZR as the colder air filtered in, then got dry slotted. Then, the coastal cranked too far north of us to reap the benefits, something that thankfully didn't happen in the 2016 storm. Perhaps, if and when there is a PD III, it'll be on par with PD I. Lived in Atlantic Co, NJ. Far enough inland it stayed all snow and had a foot and a half in 1979. Was in 5th grade and no school for a week. in 2003 was living in Cape May Co, NJ. Over 20”! Both storms amazing!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 18Z GFS has a hybrid situation where snow turns to ice for President's Day. Then, somehow, as the coastal gets going, we lose the cold at the surface, and any ice turns to rain for everyone. This is at the end of the run, but bottom line there IS STILL a storm around that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18Z GFS has a hybrid situation where snow turns to ice for President's Day. Then, somehow, as the coastal gets going, we lose the cold at the surface, and any ice turns to rain for everyone. This is at the end of the run, but bottom line there IS a storm around that time. I wouldn’t be surprised if that LR storm fantasy storm turned into a bigger storm at mid range or ushers in a bigger storm. Sometime between the 18th-24th. Upper level pattern screams storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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