Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[RIC Airport]

15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Perfect split flow. Couldn’t draw it up any better.

Yup, and the higher heights in the NAO/AO domains. But, more importantly, this time around, we have a bona fide western ridge. Both the EPS and GEFS look favorable for a snowstorm, I hope WE can score and the snow isn't displaced north and west of us. It's hard to see why we couldn't. 

[RIC Airport]

55 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Hopefully the  cold will actually show  up. The  last  so called  pattern change had  2 days  of winter temps and no snow.

I agree. But, had the 2/5 threat not shown up on the models, that had been expected. That we'd have a brief cool down, followed by a moderation before things got good for mid-late month into March.

[Conway7305]

49 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I agree. But, had the 2/5 threat not shown up on the models, that had been expected. That we'd have a brief cool down, followed by a moderation before things got good for mid-late month into March.

Weeklies  showing favorable pattern continuing through March 15th. Looks like we may get a month of opportunities after pattern change occurs on or shortly after Feb 15th.  I feel like our best window is going to be between Feb 18th-28th  but March could also be good. All ingredients are there Split Flow, -AO, -NAO MJO in Phase 8, +PNA, Active STJ in a moderate/strong NINO. It is rare to get all these Oscillations  in right places at the right time. 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

Weeklies  showing favorable pattern continuing through March 15th. Looks like we may get a month of opportunities after pattern change occurs on or shortly after Feb 15th.  I feel like our best window is going to be between Feb 18th-28th  but March could also be good. All ingredients are there Split Flow, -AO, -NAO MJO in Phase 8, +PNA, Active STJ in a moderate/strong NINO. It is rare to get all these Oscillations  in right places at the right time. 

There have been quite a few decent events mid to late month. I haven't gone through Norfolk's data yet, but here are Richmond's February snowstorms that delivered 4 inches or more since 1898. Quite a few events were close to making the list, so this doesn't exactly tell the whole story. I will post the Norfolk events at some other time and look at March as well.

February Snowstorms 4" or more at Richmond (since 1898)

5.0” February 26, 2015
7.2” February 16-17, 2015
5.8” February 12-13, 2014
4.0” February 19-20, 2012
6.6” February 5-6, 2010
8.3” February 16, 1996
4.0” February 26-27, 1993
5.3” February 23-24, 1989
7.6” February 18, 1989
5.3” February 16-17, 1987
17.7” February 10-11, 1983
6.6” February 27-28, 1982
4.2” February 13-14, 1982
4.7” February 9-10, 1980
10.9” February 18-19, 1979
6.4” February 7, 1979
4.4” February 19, 1972
4.0” February 17, 1972
5.3” February 2, 1972
4.9” February 17-18, 1967
6.4” February 9-10, 1967
5.6” February 6-7, 1967
6.6” February 14-15, 1965
7.3” February 28, 1964
5.3” February 26, 1963
8.9” February 13-14, 1960
6.3” February 15, 1958
5.6” February 26-27, 1952
5.4” February 24, 1952
4.5” February 10, 1948
10.1” January 31-February 1, 1948
9.2” February 19-20, 1947
12.6” February 7, 1936
8.0” February 25, 1934
4.7” February 4-5, 1933
4.6” February 20, 1914
4.7” February 13, 1914
4.1” February 7-8, 1909
4.2” February 27, 1906
6.1” February 10-11, 1904
9.7” February 15-17, 1902
5.4” February 16-18, 1900
16.3” February 11-14, 1899
4.0” February 6-7, 1899

[RIC Airport]

I know I said I lost interest, but the 2/5 to 2/6 threat is not dead in the water. There are still several ensemble members that have us getting snow next week. Also, the 18z GFS was farther north with enough cold air, so it was something to monitor. We've seen some weird last-minute hits before. 

[Conway7305]

18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I know I said I lost interest, but the 2/5 to 2/6 threat is not dead in the water. There are still several ensemble members that have us getting snow next week. Also, the 18z GFS was farther north with enough cold air, so it was something to monitor. We've seen some weird last-minute hits before. 

P4 please!  

[ldub23]

No arctic air anywhere. Very  mild with no sign of  any below  normal temps

 

 

[RIC Airport]

19 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

No arctic air anywhere. Very  mild with no sign of  any below  normal temps

Doesn't look THAT bad to me. And this is at 1pm.

But, again.....it's hour 384. The 00z run could have us at 25°F or a full fledged torch 70°F+. So, while no arctic cold, you can't really glean much from that range.

[RIC Airport]

The 18z GEFS still has a few hits around the 5-6th, including one member that gives RIC 15" of snow. However, there were more hits, although small, for ORF and ECG. After that, there is an uptick toward mid-month. 

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 18z GEFS still has a few hits around the 5-6th. However, there were more hits for ORF and ECG. After that, there is an uptick toward mid-month. 

I  personally think next week is the  only chance  for  accumulating in se va this winter. Still a  chance.

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, Conway7305 said:

P4 please!  

That one dropped 15" at RIC. 

[RIC Airport]

Fwiw, the updated CANSIPs just dropped. Seems to be on board with us staying on the cooler and wetter side for the next few months and @ldub23's cold and wet April prediction could come true. 

Also, it still likes the idea of a La Nina for the 2024-25 winter. 

[RIC Airport]

00z GFS has next week's storm still too far south and east, but tries to introduce snow showers for coastal areas, maybe even some bay effect snow for southside Hampton Roads as it pulls away. 

[RIC Airport]

The 00z EPS showed the next bona fide threat window toward mid-month, primarily for Richmond. 1-2 members DO show the snow shower possibility next week on the back side of that coastal storm.

Hopefully, these charts will light up like a Christmas tree in the coming days  as the pattern continues to look favorable for snowstorms. 

 

[Ji]

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

[Stormpc]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

Damn it. We were trying to hide from everyone. We come down here to escape.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

You jinxed it. The storm has  vamoosed.

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

It’s a true honor to have you here man!! Thanks for checking in!!

Down here btw we were originators of “How much for Short Pump?” Hahahaha!!

[RVAman]

We apparently don't matter to the Mid Atlantic in the main forum, that's why we are here. 

[JB Fins]

It should be mandatory for anybody in the "main" thread complaining about their lack of snow or how this winter has sucked, to spend a few minutes here.  It will give them a bit of perspective and allow them to appreciate what they have received.

And if one of them says, move north or Richmond should not get snow blah, blah, blah, I will hit them with a sock full of nickels.

[ldub23]

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

 

[JFLETCHER]

35 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

 

Good call. I'm very skeptical of this "epic" pattern. You can have the setup all you want but if the STJ isn't producing, you may get a minor event here or there. But the models keep teasing folks and some keep buying in.

[RIC Airport]

 

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. 

1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said:

Good call. I'm very skeptical of this "epic" pattern. You can have the setup all you want but if the STJ isn't producing, you may get a minor event here or there. But the models keep teasing folks and some keep buying in.

The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration.  

I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun. 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, RVAman said:

We apparently don't matter to the Mid Atlantic in the main forum, that's why we are here. 

Lol I don’t get offended by that kind of stuff. Too many other things more important in life.

[wasnow215]

10 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. 

The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration.  

I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun. 

100% @RIC Airport! Pattern changes and fantasy clown maps 16 days away have virtually nothing to do with each other.

[RIC Airport]

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Lol I don’t get offended by that kind of stuff. Too many other things more important in life.

There has always been that rivalry, but its gotten pretty bad over the years and sometimes it can get pretty toxic as if it can't possibly snow down here. And yes, that is why this thread exists, @Stormpc, @RVAman, @JB Fins.

 

30 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

100% @RIC Airport! Pattern changes and fantasy clown maps 16 days away have virtually nothing to do with each other.

Thank you. Besides, this is a snow board. That's what drives most of the traffic. If people are gonna be negative and not get into the day to day tracking of snow then I'm not sure you're gonna like it around here. Just look at your phone app or out the window every day to check the weather.

[JFLETCHER]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

 

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. 

The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration.  

I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun. 

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

[RVAman]

17 minutes ago, JFLETCHER said:

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

I hope we feast and DC doesn't. Since we aren't a "snow climate".

[JFLETCHER]

17 minutes ago, RVAman said:

I hope we feast and DC doesn't. Since we aren't a "snow climate".

10-4 on that Sir.

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, JFLETCHER said:

I wasn't trying to be rude or anything. I truly appreciate all of the posts you are making. I was just referring to the models in general and how poor they have been as of late. Do I think there is a good pattern coming, I do. I just hope that we can all feast down here in Central Virginia and get a good one to go our way.

@JFLETCHER, no worries, and I didn't mean to come across that way. Admittedly, this winter has been a disappointment, and yes, the weeklies have overpromised and have underdelivered. But it's hard to see the day-to-day details when looking at the 500 MB anomaly maps. Anticipation is mainly from what history has told us, but sometimes things don't work out. So far, the PHL to DCA corridor has been the best place to be relative to average. Outside of that, most places are still struggling with snow. 

Look at the precip anomalies since early November. It's a shame we've had so little snow with all the moisture we've seen. But, the cold has been displaced in the central and southern plains while we've been skewed warm so far.