RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:00 PM, wasnow215 said: Euro ensembles? 12z Expand Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:08 PM, RIC Airport said: Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC? Expand Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:08 PM, Conway7305 said: Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50 Expand On 1/27/2024 at 9:21 PM, wasnow215 said: Lol sorry I meant the spread map you put out sometimes that shows the whole region with the average accumulation throughout Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 27, 2024 Author Share Posted January 27, 2024 @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 10:57 PM, RIC Airport said: @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution. Expand Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 11:25 PM, Stormpc said: Exactly. That's the most believable possible, snowy solution. And just think how many elements have to come together at exactly the same time in order to produce that. That would be epic. And one heck of a stroke of luck. Expand Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 12:38 AM, RIC Airport said: Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well. Expand those are some insane totals. 20+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 Charts, @Conway7305 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 12:45 AM, Conway7305 said: Expand This starts at 12z 2/2 and finishes at 12z 2/7. You can see the hits in there around 2/5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 GFS was south again with the 2/5 possible storm, but perhaps some snow showers on Saturday with the confluence low pressing south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 1:26 PM, ldub23 said: Expand Could be just me, but I am not able to see what you posted, @ldub23. Meanwhile, after reviewing the overnight and morning models, there is still a storm signal for the February 4th to 6th timeframe, but it isn't as impressive as yesterday (i.e. not as many hits). But there is still plenty of time to monitor. Hopefully today is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 4:49 PM, RIC Airport said: Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that. Expand Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 5:27 PM, Stormpc said: Canadian got it done just in time. Similar to EURO. Expand There is a lot of spread on the models, it's good that the farther north solutions are still showing up. The 12Z GEFS had a mixed breed of solutions. A couple hits, some southern misses, and even quite a few rainy members. You can see why the 50th percentile is so empty because only a couple members are driving up the mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 The 12z euro was still close to something big, but it gets shredded so it's too far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 6:52 PM, RIC Airport said: The 12z euro was still close to something big, but still gets shredded and is too far south and east. Expand Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 6:58 PM, Conway7305 said: Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here. Expand Certainly nothing like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 7:42 PM, RIC Airport said: Certainly nothing like yesterday. Expand Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 7:49 PM, Conway7305 said: Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. Expand Waiting till after the normals start rising isnt ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 28, 2024 Author Share Posted January 28, 2024 On 1/28/2024 at 7:49 PM, Conway7305 said: Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. Expand On 1/28/2024 at 8:05 PM, ldub23 said: Waiting till after the normals start rising isnt ideal. Expand Trend definitely isn’t good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 28, 2024 Share Posted January 28, 2024 The only good thing is id rather see it well south and hope it comes north than north and hope it comes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 29, 2024 Share Posted January 29, 2024 06 gfs further north and warmer. Just no cold air once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 29, 2024 Share Posted January 29, 2024 Agreed, Feb 4-5 north trend is too warm “at the moment” Catch 22. Colder = Supression, Warmer if storm is north. Maybe a coastal low can bring in colder air. Longer Term, NAO really just needs to go negative to help us. It positive now trending neutral through Feb 15th. Weeklies still ok on pattern change but only after the 15th and will take time to get cold air established. Wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t start tracking legit opportunities until after Feb 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 29, 2024 Share Posted January 29, 2024 Still hanging onto a few big hitters on the 12z GFS Ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 29, 2024 Share Posted January 29, 2024 Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles. But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2024 Author Share Posted January 29, 2024 On 1/29/2024 at 7:33 PM, Stormpc said: Re 2/5-2/6...If it gets this for North it's going to be rain. As it looks right now. Still looking like pattern change around mid-month but again that's over two weeks away still. We'll take what we can get between now and then. At least something to look at especially for you folks in the Richmond area and north. If anything I'm getting either some rain or a lot of wind driven rain with this. Not much difference down here. A few cold air damming situations pop up on those ensembles. But Not many. From now till mid month looks to be a gradual step down with a little roller coaster in temperatures until that block gets established north of the maritimes. At least that's what it looks like right now. @RIC Airport can delve deeper into the euro and ensembles later. Expand There is still potential for 2/5, but I became uninvested after yesterday's 12Z runs. Today's 12Z EPS only had 1-2 good hits, even fewer than yesterday and the day before, so the trend has not been great. Meanwhile, today's updated weeklies continue to sing the same tune for late February into March. That's really the only thing we can ask for at this juncture, with the hopes the pattern will deliver for our area. I do not see the need to cancel the winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2024 Author Share Posted January 29, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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