ldub23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18Z euro was a bit interesting for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 18Z euro was a bit interesting for friday Care to expand? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: 18Z euro was a bit interesting for friday 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: Care to expand? Haha The GRAF model is really aggressive for Friday. MT, obviously is a DC TV met, but you can see what the model does in our area. Let's hope it's right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 06 gfs doesnt even have a snow flurry for se va on friday. Hopefully by feb 28 2025 we will have an accumulating snow 12Z nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: 06 gfs doesnt even have a snow flurry for se va on friday. Hopefully by feb 28 2025 we will have an accumulating snow 12Z nada Its snow map had a strip from Farmville through Richmond to Tappahanock and the Northern Neck. But QPF amounts are only around a tenth of an inch. If THIS GFS run is correct, the best time at RIC is between 4am and 10am. But, it did try to bring moisture into the state after 7pm with a band of moisture around RIC between 10pm and 1am. But I wonder if that's virga. The best chance for any stickage, if there will be any, would be between 4am and 7am when temps are around freezing. GFS has RIC's temps rising to 35°F by 9am and 44°F by noon. Either way, this still looks very minor. We can enjoy the cold that comes behind it. GFS had almost all of us staying below freezing for highs on Saturday. Then it's time to focus on identifying the next opportunity after the upcoming pattern change. Last night, several EPS members continued to signal a chance for the last few days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 After this weekends cold shot, I personaly think we are done in this area with any accumulating snow chances for the month… However a few degrees/miles could be the difference again for the Thursday night / Friday storm… Tomorrow’s high temperature will give us a good indicator of what may come( if anything) if it dosnt warm up as much as expected for those of us just north of Richmond metro.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Fwiw, here is the map AKQ put out this afternoon. From what I've seen with my own eyes and overall gut feeling, I feel this is appropriate although that doesn't mean flakes won't fall south of Kings Dominion. I also peaked at the Euro weeklies from this morning, and early February was pretty "meh." But, the pattern started improving after about the 10th through the end of the month and into March. I posted the 500mb height map ending at 00z on March 3rd. Once the pattern improved, it looked similar to how it looked much of the winter on the weeklies. Nonetheless, I'd rather gamble with February than December since it tends to be colder, so hopefully, it produces even if it takes until March for something good. Some other mechanisms, such as the MJO, can hopefully provide additional help. Truthfully, I was not impressed with the snowfall output, but at the same time, they've provided false hope all winter. The city snowfall charts are from the run two days ago, but the regional snowfall mean map is from today, btw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Fwiw, here is the map AKQ put out this afternoon. From what I've seen with my own eyes and overall gut feeling, I feel this is appropriate although that doesn't mean flakes won't fall south of Kings Dominion. I also peaked at the Euro weeklies from this morning, and early February was pretty "meh." But, the pattern started improving after about the 10th through the end of the month and into March. I posted the 500mb height map ending at 00z on March 3rd. Once the pattern improved, it looked similar to how it looked much of the winter on the weeklies. Nonetheless, I'd rather gamble with February than December since it tends to be colder, so hopefully, it produces even if it takes until March for something good. Some other mechanisms, such as the MJO, can hopefully provide additional help. Truthfully, I was not impressed with the snowfall output, but at the same time, they've provided false hope all winter. The city snowfall charts are from the run two days ago, but the regional snowfall mean map is from today, btw. Thanks for the detailed info. I always thought Mid Feb-March was the wheelhouse. NAO should be Negative by then and hopefully a +PNA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 @RIC Airportspecific question and need your help please regarding a meeting near short pump for tomorrow very early. It’s looking like there could be an inch of snow according to the GFS right around 3 AM-5am. We may cancel or do online only? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC Airportspecific question and need your help please regarding a meeting near short pump for tomorrow very early. It’s looking like there could be an inch of snow according to the GFS right around 3 AM-5am. We may cancel or do online only? Thoughts? There will not be an inch or anywhere close to it. We may not even see any snow at all. Meeting will be fine buddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 24 minutes ago, RVAman said: There will not be an inch or anywhere close to it. We may not even see any snow at all. Meeting will be fine buddy. May not have anything at all but still could get snow in this area.. Its far from certain at this point but either way its shouldnt be anything major, since temps are expected to be right around freezing or above for most of this event in this area ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, eaglesin2011 said: May not have anything at all but still could get snow in this area.. Its far from certain at this point but either way its shouldnt be anything major, since temps are expected to be right around freezing or above for most of this event in this area ..... HRRR is showing that snow doesn't happen and rain to start. We'll see but I really don't think a meeting needs to be cancelled due to this. Just an opinion, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 agree that should be no reason to cancel ...Just saying it could still snow going to depend how the two systems come togehter and the timeing/temps.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: agree that should be no reason to cancel ...Just saying it could still snow going to depend how the two systems come togehter and the timeing/temps.. Fair enough! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Again looking at 12z GFS it looks again like 2am-4am snow showers and temps below 32° Short Pump area. Clearly from the city south and east nothing really at all I was just concerned about those North west areas of the city. I appreciate the input from all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Honestly, its not certain yet in the Short Pump area ..Could still be nothing . At this time... Wrost case senerio looks to be 1 to 2 inches, mostly on grassy surfaces... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, wasnow215 said: @RIC Airportspecific question and need your help please regarding a meeting near short pump for tomorrow very early. It’s looking like there could be an inch of snow according to the GFS right around 3 AM-5am. We may cancel or do online only? Thoughts? 2 hours ago, RVAman said: There will not be an inch or anywhere close to it. We may not even see any snow at all. Meeting will be fine buddy. 2 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: May not have anything at all but still could get snow in this area.. Its far from certain at this point but either way its shouldnt be anything major, since temps are expected to be right around freezing or above for most of this event in this area ..... 2 hours ago, RVAman said: HRRR is showing that snow doesn't happen and rain to start. We'll see but I really don't think a meeting needs to be cancelled due to this. Just an opinion, of course. The issue for us is limited moisture (Trace to 0.20”) and borderline surface temperatures (32°F-35°F). The GFS is the most aggressive and farthest south with the precip shield compared to other guidance. While I admit the GFS did great identifying the placement of Monday’s snow band, I have low confidence snow will accumulate this far south. But other areas north and northwest of the city have a shot, especially north of Ashland toward Fredericksburg, where more moisture will be available. The 12Z 3K NAM (below) depicts this thinking, although its radar simulation does clip areas as far south as Short Pump and Ashland with snow between 4 am and 7 am, while the city and points south might be warm enough for rain, at least for a portion of the precip. It also tried to bring some snow/rain showers on the back side of the low tomorrow evening as colder air is rushing in. The 12Z HRRR, on the other hand, didn’t have much precip south of Fredericksburg. @wasnow215That said, I still would not rule out a period of light snows farther south, including the city, between 4 am and 10 am, with 4-7 am being the best chance for anything to stick since temperatures will be closest to freezing. I don’t believe it will be widespread or long-lasting enough to wreak havoc, though. The absolute worst-case scenario is probably a coating to a half-inch, IMO. All models warm us rapidly as the morning progresses, with RIC getting into the low or mid-40s by afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 @RVAman, @eaglesin2011The 12Z Euro was actually similar to the GFS and tries to put a heavier band of snow between 4am and 10am over the Richmond metro area. But, challenges with respect to QPF amounts and surface temperatures remain. Interestingly, the Euro does have RIC right at freezing from 7am to 9am so that would increase the odds of getting that coating to half inch in more areas if this is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 23 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: @RVAman, @eaglesin2011The 12Z Euro was actually similar to the GFS and tries to put a heavier band of snow between 4am and 10am over the Richmond metro area. But, challenges with respect to QPF amounts and surface temperatures remain. Interestingly, the Euro does have RIC right at freezing from 7am to 9am so that would increase the odds of getting that coating to half inch in more areas if this is correct. Maybe western caroline can get a half-inch to an inch up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, JFLETCHER said: Maybe western caroline can get a half-inch to an inch up here. Wakefield just issued an advisory for areas north of RIC and over towards the Northern Neck 1 inch, maybe 2" in spots. I hope Ladysmith can score! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 VAZ509>511-190415- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240119T1800Z/ Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Including the cities of Louisa, Mineral, and Ashland 310 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, with up to 2 inches possible. * WHERE...Western Louisa, Eastern Louisa and Western Hanover Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions in Virginia or Maryland, please call 5 1 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Yep.. Clouds moving into the area now so temps should start to drop now... See if this area can get lucky with a heavy band tommrow morning & avoid the dry air.. Not like we are missing much if it dosnt happen... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Here are the latest maps from AKQ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday. Short range models don’t agree says little to nothing. Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol. Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday. Short range models don’t agree says little to nothing. Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol. Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 current radar looks decent but really means nothing until goes over the mountains/dry air..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 5 hours ago, Conway7305 said: 18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday. Short range models don’t agree says little to nothing. Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol. Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol 5 hours ago, Stormpc said: You see that little sliver in Northeast Virginia beach? Get your butt over there. Maybe if you're lucky you can catch some snowflakes on your tongue in the afternoon as she departs!! 9 hours ago, RIC Airport said: The 12Z 3K NAM (below) depicts this thinking, although its radar simulation does clip areas as far south as Short Pump and Ashland with snow between 4 am and 7 am, while the city and points south might be warm enough for rain, at least for a portion of the precip. It also tried to bring some snow/rain showers on the back side of the low tomorrow evening as colder air is rushing in. I had time to look at the 18Z suite, and the idea of snow or rain streamers (snow most likely) developing behind the low tomorrow afternoon and evening as the next Arctic airmass penetrates the area is gaining traction. Below is a slowed down 18Z 3K NAM radar simulation, which goes in motion from 1am Friday to 7am Saturday. The precipitation begins entering our region between 2am and 4am and moves out by noon. The 18Z Euro and 18Z GFS were even more aggressive with snow around Richmond in the morning. Also, around 4pm, you can see where the 3K NAM has snow entering the region northwest of RIC and moving through Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore between 6pm and 10pm. It looks limited, but the models are beginning to pick up on this idea of snow, even in Southside Hampton Roads, @SnowBeach@ldub23. I froze the radar at 8pm below where it shows a snow squall moving east between Norfolk and Virginia Beach. The temperature at ORF is 34°F, and it's very cold aloft (850mb temps ~-10°C), so it should be snow with this approaching airmass. It will be interesting to see whether the 00z suite maintains this, even for your area, @Stormpc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Thanks for the heads up. But I’m chasing to the Shenandoah Valley as we speak. ☺️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 @RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: @RIC AirportThe RGEM has that feature as well for Hampton Roads. The inverted V look. Nothing crazy exciting but something to watch. Be interesting to see where that dry slot sets up...in Central Virginia or up further in the Fredericksburg area? Then the pivot thru the DMV and whatever scraps get caught in the flow of the departed low. There could be some instability to give those snow showers a boost with sunshine and tanking upper levels. That may be fun before the Frozen weekend begins. Anyway good stuff. Lots happening. The 00z 3K NAM only has spotty precip moving through the region between 2am and 9am. Temperatures around Richmond are 32°F-35°F while this swings through, so the model tries to depict a mix or rain from about Ashland to Tappahanock and points southward. At the same time, an area of rain is developing across Hampton Roads with temperatures around 40°F. Meanwhile, a more widespread area of snow is occurring north of about Caroline County up to DCA, so the dry slot has won according to this run, @Stormpc. As the low pulls away to our NE, the 3K NAM tries to develop a 2nd batch of snow between 10am and 11am, which swings through the Richmond area and onto the Northern Neck between 12pm and 3pm. Temperatures are in the mid-30s, so it will probably not be easy to accumulate given the time of day. After this, the model tries to develop snow squalls/streamers that move through the Richmond area between 4pm and 6pm and between 5pm and 10pm across Hampton Roads. I think the window over Hampton Roads is longer due to the possibility of river/bay enhancement. Not everyone will see them, and the models probably can’t pinpoint exactly where any bay enhancement will be set up if any does at all, so the location may fluctuate in later runs. Even though it’s very cold aloft, surface temperatures at the time are still just above freezing, so there would be little, if any, accumulation from these, but will be fun as you mentioned. Also this phenomenon rarely happens. NAM even has a streamer coming down the Chesapeake Bay overnight Friday, but only reaches the west coast of the Eastern Shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Did anyone see snow this morning? RIC recorded 0.05" of rain between 5am and 6am. Also, temperatures were 3-4 degrees higher than what the 00z 3K NAM model I posted last night had. Also, it might've been too far south with the 2nd batch of precip. But maybe the snow streamers will verify this evening and maybe even overnight and tomorrow morning for parts of Hampton Roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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