Dick_LeBoof Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Some good looking banding beginning to form now on the radar! Hopefully the column stays cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 55 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: It looks nice, but I remain skeptical. The 00Z Euro was better last night, but a lot needs to happen for this to become a meaningful event in our region. But we are still several days away, and things can change. The timing of this is when the pattern starts to relax, which is when the more significant storms tend to happen so at least there is that. We also need a deeper trough and it goes negative so the storm gets pulled in enough. Maybe the 12Z Euro, which is running now, will offer increased support south of 40N. FWIW, this is what the 12z Euro had for Friday. But, we can enjoy today before FWIW, this is what the 12z Euro had for Friday. But we can enjoy today before getting reeled in on another event that has its challenges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Sticking minus concrete/roads- hopefully can pick up and have those start to cave too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Everyone north of the yellow should be all snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Big flakes now hopefully the turnover holds off a few more hours.. definitely on the line for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Sticking now east end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 32 and moderate snow in Hanover...elevated surfaces have a dusting....yard is getting there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It’s been this way for a long time, but we can see how the short term models that had the snow missing to the north were absolutely wrong even 6z this morning. Nothing is perfect but still the euro and the GFS most reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It’s been this way for a long time, but we can see how the short term models that had the snow missing to the north were absolutely wrong even 6z this morning. Nothing is perfect but still the euro and the GFS most reliable. I was just about to mention that the GFS certainly had a better handle on this band, while others had it farther north, and most of the Richmond area was getting fringed. The GFS had RIC a bit too cold, though, and had RIC down to 27°F at 7am when it was only 33°F at the time. Every event is different. In the big storms, often, the short-range models can pick up on warm air aloft that the bigger models don't pick up as well. The February 14-18, 2003 (PD II) storm comes to mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blzbba Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Pretty snow with big flakes and some (occasional sleet mixing) for about an hour now in Chesterfield, sticking on the grass. Better than last year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Decent coating so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 35 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Everyone north of the yellow should be all snow. Unfortunately, the yellow is advancing northward, so sleet will likely start mixing back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Hopefully this band stalls a bit before pulling north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, mikeeng92 said: Hopefully this band stalls a bit before pulling north. Yes, that would be great if it stayed long enough to give everyone at least an inch or two. Maybe all it takes is another hour at these rates. KRIC actually reached freezing with moderate snow about 30 mins ago, and no model, at least since 00z, has had it this cold this late in the day. Remember the HRRR sounding I posted? At some point, you just have to nowcast and not look at the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18z NAM giving about an inch or so over the next couple hours- fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 A little sleet mixing in with snow now. Just got back to Henrico 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Fully over to sleet in the Fan near VCU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaGirl Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Switched over to sleet in Tuckahoe, West End Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Still coming down decent and all snow in Ashland. Driveway and sidewalk starting to cave a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Looks like that maybe it for accumulating snow here.. At least we got a decent dusting … pos freezing rain in early morning hours… Travel still could be interesting in the morning at least on the back roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Hoping that band south of Roanoke and Lynchburg doesn’t move too far north and we can get some of that. May be pushing north too quickly though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Spoke to soon- sleet mixed in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yes that band is booking north. It's gone within the next hour, at least city and SE. Remember to take the model that has the most snow divided by half then divide it by 1/3 and that's the high end of the total. So in this case a trace to 2 in would be the max in the Richmond area. That looks like it's going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 back to snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Big last burst started to cave the roads right as this starts to pull away .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Same on both- back to all snow and coming down pretty good atm - probably sitting at 1.25” to 1.5” on the surfaces that accumulated first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On the bright side, it has already snowed more this winter than last—not that that was a high bar or anything. You can only go up from nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Really coming down again in the city! It’s gorgeous out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Heavy Snow in Henrico, Roads starting to cave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Seems like the snow band hasn’t moved north much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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