eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: 12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end. Banding is definitely going to be key wherever it sets up.. Again, it’s going to be a big difference within just a few miles.. A couple inches to nothing at all.. By 4pm we should be able to see if we are going to be totally screwed or not… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Banding is definitely going to be key wherever it sets up.. Again it’s going to be a big difference within just a few miles of a few inches to nothing at all.. By 4pm we should be able to know if we are going to be totally screwed or not Yep, going to need some luck for sure. Radar looks pretty good in Northern NC. HRRR starting to tick back south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Radar looks a lot more full and expands south more, especially in carolina from what models are showing so hopefully that’s a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said: The fantasy maps? On one or two model runs? Comon now, let’s be real …lol 0 to 3 inches has been consistent for awhile now on almost all of the models (for this area) Expecting anything more then this with this storm is wish-casting …. (I wish this would happen myself) This afternoon could still bring an inch or two or nothing… YET AGAIN lol I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it. 100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 100% -and it looks like returns are coming in more south than some of the short term models and even the GFS had it this morning and 0Z last night. You see that @RIC Airport? Or am I having “radar hallucinations”? Haha Definitely activity to the south of Richmond. It has that SW to NE orientation, but the band looked to be lifting north. So, I imagine precip should begin in the next couple of hours. Dew points are in the low-mid teens, and temps are in the mid-30s, but this band looks heavy enough to wet bulb us to freezing or below, hopefully. As long as the entire column is below freezing. And yes, better to see the band forming south of us than right over,@wasnow215. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 15 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Seeing the same, looks like Danville area is seeing snow make it down per traffic cams so hopefully a good sign for us I just tried looking around Emporia, and the roads look wet, but the camera is too grainy to know that it's rain, snow....or even sleet. That is probably what the yellow colors are picking up that way. https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=36.7029,-77.5497&camId=430919&fbclid=IwAR1ReRnrZczKGm12u22Y7P1qTxNGyC7b4wQxK8UGrzwAeGBaoHGiip7FqH8 Also, the AWOS appears to be down, lol. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kemv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 That band and orientation looks like the GFS from four or five runs ago. Short-term models didn't have that as significant. Overrunning is a tough thing to predict. Once that Coastal gets going it may push the best forcing further north, quicker than we want. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Very light snow in northern Newport News. Now big flakes and sleet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Fwiw, DT basically just called it off for RVA. Said any snow that does fall here will very quickly change over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snow on the I-64 cameras well South into Newport News almost to the shipyards. Meanwhile I sit at 44° with partly sunny skies South of the Border on the coast. Not this time for me. Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18 minutes ago, Topher said: Very light snow in northern Newport News. Now big flakes and sleet Dogs first snow since 2021, was in Charleston for a bit, now husband is stationed here for another couple years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I’m working down in Williamsburg today. Just started snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yup precip light snow/rain sleet should start in the next hour or two in the Richmond/Henrico area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just a little bit of pingers and snow as we walked the pug in Tuckahoe. I would be happy with an inch at this point, just to remind us what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Yep first very, light flakes here in Glen Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Only a tiny window left for any frozen at RIC. Per the sounding chart from the most recent HRRR, the surface temp never gets below freezing. By 2pm, it already has dewpoint and wet bulb above freezing so any precip at that point would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Topher said: Dogs first snow since 2021, was in Charleston for a bit, now husband is stationed here for another couple years. Awesome! Glad they got to see some, even if it was brief. Hopefully there is more before this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 29 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Ouch It actually looks like it's happening sooner. The precip just isn't heavy enough to cool the column sufficiently. KRIC started reporting rain at the onset but did go over to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snowing moderately in Bon Air. Just changed over about 10 minutes ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It prob will turn back over from sleet and rain to snow /sleet rain a few times depending on intensity . Again a few miles is going to make a difference of what everyone gets. It’s back to light snow here in my part of Glen allen at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Stormpc said: Edit: Friday's system making an abrupt comeback on 12z GFS. That's how Newport News and South can score. Still unlikely but at least there's a chance. It looks nice, but I remain skeptical. The 00Z Euro was better last night, but a lot needs to happen for this to become a meaningful event in our region. But we are still several days away, and things can change. The timing of this is when the pattern starts to relax, which is when the more significant storms tend to happen so at least there is that. Also, I was not overly impressed with the ensembles, although the signal is still there. We also need a deeper trough and it goes negative so the storm gets pulled in enough. Maybe the 12Z Euro, which is running now, will offer increased support south of 40N. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Finally some flakes in ashland. Looks like it should stay snow for a bit and pick up based on radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Finally some flakes in ashland. Looks like it should stay snow for a bit and pick up based on radar I'm in Ladysmith 18 miles from you. Hopefully we can cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We've got light snow and 34 degrees in Hanover...started to pick up a bit in the last 20 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Radar is still looking decent, hopefully most people can get a dusting if the rates cool the temperatures enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snow on the east end. Not sticking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snow 33 in tuckahoe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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