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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion


RIC Airport
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Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday..

I’d expect school & work closings

looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back  to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away..

What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key ..  More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area

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Love it!  Beautiful overrunning event on 16th according to GFS.  Also has some accumulation on the 19th storm.  I would be happy with these two minor/mid  events this week then break till Feb where we can score big SECS OR HECS.  

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Still holding  out  hope for a  miracle on 06 GFS

12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. 

1743505874_regionalradarstorm2.thumb.gif.54b7f776c8f0d672833d2f728a73bd35.gif1825264273_snowstorm2.thumb.png.50336a9fd3f3d277e7528638d8edceed.png

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1 hour ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday..

I’d expect school & work closings

looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back  to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away..

What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key ..  More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area

I like how the over-running from the initial wave seems to be "trending." Of course, some models have fluctuated with how far south it developed. The farther south, the better for us, and maybe even as far SE as Newport News/Hampton. Some models have the band advancing north into NoVa and dry-slotting us quickly, while others have it lingering longer around Richmond. Some models have surface temp and 850/925mb temp issues for parts of the Richmond area, while others have the column below freezing for the entire initial wave. Also, the timing of the precip is slightly different from model to model. What was a Tuesday event is now solidly a Monday one on some. I am not a pro, but I imagine trying to put out a forecast would be frustrating. 

I have given up hope on the coastal low. It could enhance precip to an extent, but I agree that most of the precip is from the initial wave vs the coastal. 

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Here is the National Blend of Models (NBM). It runs every 3 hours, and it's basically a time-lagged blend of at least a few dozen models and ensembles. It still likely has some 06z or earlier guidance. It slowly responds if guidance continues to trend up or down, but it's what the NWS uses and should correlate to what you see in your point-and-click forecast.

FWIW, here are the last two runs. 

1039101238_NBM2.thumb.png.2618c88f2d52cd70289dd01e6678a7f3.png

263665322_NBM1.thumb.png.03d0c76f4f86320f03d327900576d0a7.png

 

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The 12Z Euro has the snow band arriving tomorrow morning, but the bulk of the precip doesn't enter the Richmond area until around 3 or 4 pm The heavier rates from north to south are between 7pm and 1am. Surface temperatures are above freezing when the precipitation starts but drop near freezing as the snow begins. The snow band didn't hang around as long as the GFS did before lifting north. GFS has an earlier arrival of the snow (heavier rates), which helped keep surface temperatures lower.

0.thumb.gif.4f71b6fa63780bc88248d9a48b76961a.gifSNNOW.thumb.png.73ceae188c035567c0f4f44acf479040.png4.thumb.png.655194aee18d460064c391eb1b0cbab7.png5.thumb.png.ea8709339f4dccd937bbeed45fb09703.png6.thumb.png.a34f49746d93e1ee2421fdaf8dca25c1.png7.thumb.png.098ce7954f4afc2a1c761d9d4debf294.png

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2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z still had it. Actually, the past few runs of the GFS. I want to get excited once the Euro catches on, which is possible. I noticed the 6Z EPS improved from the 00z EPS for Friday. But, since 6z EPS only goes out to hour 144, it only captured some of the event. 

@Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. 

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4 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Looking like ice could be a problem on Tuesday..

I’d expect school & work closings

looks like this maybe starting Monday afternoon/night going from snow& rain back  to freezing rain back to snow as it’s pulling away..

What area exactly get dry slotted & how the waves come together or not is going to be key ..  More development off the coast could actually mean less snow / ice more rain in this area

I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out?

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1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

@Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. 

snooooo2.thumb.png.0d37e979e1cba899d00e10944564ab01.png

1713909257_snooooo2temp.thumb.png.66abe8b9089143f3b82acc0c20a2e816.png

snooooo3.thumb.png.02244e95dc7a741f83bde0a94e053393.png

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I will wait and see what the  18z gfs shows  if anything. One thing  is  certain, there  is going to be a warm up after the  snowless  cold  in se va. Im glad  it  looks  like RIC will get at  least  several inches. I was really  hoping for  1 last  cold snowy winter in Newport  News as  i have  no idea the time  i have  left, lol

 

A the end  of the  gfs the  cold  comes  back but  will it  matter  if  it  does?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

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1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

I was thinking this but look at temps. It looks like surface temps don’t even get below 33-34 even Monday night into Tuesday morning. Meaning it may be difficult for snow to accumulate anywhere but the coldest surfaces Monday into Tuesday. It’s later Tuesday into Wed that the cold air really comes in after things dry out for the most part. @RIC Airport do you think this is how it plays out?

I am concerned about surface temperatures and worried that the snow band could position farther north and Richmond is fringed without meaningful amounts. Meaningful being like 1”+. The goal is getting 1” at the airport to end the snowless streak.

The 18Z HRRR has precip arriving tomorrow morning with surface temps around 31-32°F as the snow begins. The radar simulation shows some snow trying to start during the wee hours of the morning, but it’s probably just virga (maybe). Either way, HRRR has the bulk of the snow entering Richmond between 8am and 9am. Rates pick up, but it has snow changing to rain between 4pm and 5pm as temperatures rise to about 35-36 °F. The good news is that the bulk of the precip is over by this time. It just may mean that any snow that falls could be melted by afternoon. Then we get dry slotted and may get additional rain late Monday night into Tuesday as the coastal low gets going and starts to pull away 

Let’s hope the 12Z GFS is correct, but my gut feeling is that the 12Z run was too aggressive with snow.

RADAR.thumb.gif.cb976e0ef3d9b42e9ce196b4184930ae.gif728745021_HRRRSNOW.thumb.png.486ce07c6a9dd753ad9651779e91bb1e.png

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@wasnow215, The 18Z 3K NAM is similar to the 18z HRRR. Both models have a very early arrival of precip between 4am and 5am, with the heavier rates of snow arriving between 8am and 10am and lasting until about 3 or 4pm. It's around this time that precip tapers off, and surface temps remain above freezing while we are dry-slotted. As it pulls away, there could be additional rain overnight and early Tuesday from the coastal low. 

3K NAM has RIC below freezing until about 11am, so ratios could drop, and snow may not accumulate as well, even though precip rates are higher into the mid afternoon. 

RADAR.thumb.gif.1ac01d7af12b0a6619596a8cc8c3202c.gif

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Yes, I think over the years with this hobby, I have learned that just looking at the forecasted snow maps from the weather models and even the most conservative accumulation maps can bite you because temperatures mean so much. We have all seen really good chances of storms end up being “white rain” and even though it snows for a long duration, nothing really amounts from it.

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I will wait and see what the  18z gfs shows  if anything. One thing  is  certain, there  is going to be a warm up after the  snowless  cold  in se va. Im glad  it  looks  like RIC will get at  least  several inches. I was really  hoping for  1 last  cold snowy winter in Newport  News as  i have  no idea the time  i have  left, lol

 

A the end  of the  gfs the  cold  comes  back but  will it  matter  if  it  does?

 

 

That warmth is transient; t's still going to be cold. It'll feel like winter at least. Some Fringe chances as well but you know it doesn't really snow down this way so whatever we get is a bonus. Even 24 or 36 hours of tracking the potential is good enough. At least for me obviously can't speak for you but keep an eye out for surprises. End of the week situation has some wraparound potential for us on the coast. Way out there but you never know.

Love overrunning snow. If that band can start around or south of the naval station in Norfolk and west toward Danville, it can dump on Richmond for many hours (GFS) before lifting North and out of the area. That would be a surprise three or four inches. Maybe not so surprising but at this rate it would be a shocker.

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21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Just gotta get these temps a couple degrees colder than forecasted at the surface. GFS looked colder to me at 18z vs 12z. You see that @RIC Airport?

The 18Z GFS, like the 12Z, was cold throughout. RIC was at 46°F at 5pm. It puts RIC at 32°F at 2am tonight. I am not seeing a temp above freezing until 3am Tuesday morning.

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