RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Later development, LP further SE after the cold gets entrenched. Great news for RIC and further SE. Not so great up north. Verbatim it's a nice modest hit. Even I see flakes. 25 mins to Chesapeake to see ground coverage. At least we have something. I'd be interested if I lived Williamsburg and north. Good fun until 1am. Till tomorrow... The GFS has a changeover to snow SE of Williamsburg between 1am and 4am Wednesday as the low pulls away. Looks to be a window of heavy snow, too, for all of Hampton Roads and down to about ECG. I think you'll definitely see flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 GFS looks to have RIC remaining below freezing for 4, possibly 5 days in a row. The last time that happened was back in January of 2018. We also need to watch the 21st. @Stormpc 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 @Conway7305, they still look good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The Euro tried but did not come around for us at 00Z. Although it did try to drop some snow between Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Hopefully, the EPS saves us after this, however I will not be staying up for them. Still a ways to go, so much can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The Euro tried but did not come around for us at 00Z. Although it did try to drop some snow between Richmond and the Hampton Roads area. Hopefully, the EPS saves us after this, however I will not be staying up for them. Still a ways to go, so much can still change. The good news is the 00Z GEFS and was still on par with the 18Z GEFS. Here is the entire run. For, @Stormpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 06GFS still looks good for RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 06GFS still looks good for RIC This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days. Indeed it is, the run after it is just that empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Don’t get the reason why people keep posting totals for multiple storms that haven’t even happened yet… I can understand the overall totals but hell Tuesdays storm is what needs to set up everything first & really is our best shot for a decent snow that we had around here in years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Don’t get the reason why people keep posting totals for multiple storms that haven’t even happened yet… I can understand the overall totals but hell Tuesdays storm is what needs to set up everything first & really is our best shot for a decent snow that we had around here in years.. There’s only one storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Not what I’m saying.. I just don’t know why some are jumping right past todays and Tuesdays storms like they don’t matter .. It is what is going to set up everything & add up to get to the final totals.. Hell it’s far from certain that we will get any accumulating snows out of this So, the “mean totals” really don’t matter until these storms pass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing. A surprise inch or two would be nice. I hope this winter has some more uncomplicated storms for us. I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 So, looking at the 12Z GFS, some precip begins moving into the state between 10pm Monday and 1am Tuesday, but this precip area (snow) primarily stays north and west of Richmond. Surface temps around RIC are around freezing but start to increase as the low approaches. More precip (rain) enters NE NC and southside Hampton Roads between 4am and 7am, while RIC and most of C VA remain dry slotted between the two areas of precip. By 10am Tuesday, RIC had risen to 37°F, and ORF was at 43°F as the low approached our latitude. There is an area of light rain from the Eastern Shore down into Eastern NC. By 4pm, RIC is at 38°F as more precip begins to develop south and east of RIC. By 7pm, the low is well east of Virginia but somehow moisture begins to blossom well to the west, and that is when snow begins to break out around RIC, and the temps begin to drop toward freezing. Light snow continues to fall in the Richmond area from about 7pm Tuesday and then becomes moderate to heavy between 1am and 4am Wednesday as temps continue to fall. As temps continue to fall behind the departing low, the temperatures even in SE VA lower, and the heavier snow band moves SE and over all of Hampton Roads between 4am and 7am Wednesday before taping off shortly after that. The farthest north and west the 850°C line gets is at hour 99 (10am Tuesday). It stays south and east of RIC from just south of Petersburg and toward West Point. This suggests that it may be too warm only at the surface, at least initially, to snow should there is precip around in the RVA metro. But it's during this time most of C VA is in the dry slot anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 23 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing. A surprise inch or two would be nice. I hope this winter has some more uncomplicated storms for us. I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much. Yeah, it's never good when one of the major global models doesn't come on board, and others tend to cave in that direction. But, as I've seen, strange things can happen within 72 hours. I just wanted to explain what this GFS run did in our region. Not that we should take it verbatim. I don't believe the 12Z GFS solution is correct, just how it evolved and suddenly threw a bunch of precip back at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 3 hours ago, SoCoWx said: This is not for the storm coming up in 5 days. 2 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Indeed it is, the run after it is just that empty. 2 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Not what I’m saying.. I just don’t know why some are jumping right past todays and Tuesdays storms like they don’t matter .. It is what is going to set up everything & add up to get to the final totals.. Hell it’s far from certain that we will get any accumulating snows out of this So, the “mean totals” really don’t matter until these storms pass.. I've pointed that out a few times over the last few weeks. I believe I now know why @ldub23 has a weenie tag on his account. And I am beginning to think that willy-nilly posting the 384-hour GFS in the Mid Atlantic long range thread, where many admins and moderators hang out, with no analysis or proper context had much to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The 12 GEFS continue to indicate we are still in the game, but the snowfall mean for the Tuesday-Wednesday period did drop some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Thank you @RIC Airport for the breakdown. Plenty of time for change, for the better or worse. Do you think we could see significant change based on the storm later today or do the models seem to have that sniffed out and accounted for fairly well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 34 minutes ago, JB Fins said: Thank you @RIC Airport for the breakdown. Plenty of time for change, for the better or worse. Do you think we could see significant change based on the storm later today or do the models seem to have that sniffed out and accounted for fairly well? I am very worried about the Euro. Even its ensembles have shifted weaker and east over time. And today's 12Z GFS certainly trended that way as well. If today's 12Z Euro doesn't budge, then it may be a huge sign this one could be slipping away from us. I am not ready to commit to that yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ITS been a few years since we had a cold winter pattern and there is still no sign we will have one this winter. 2 or 3 days of cold isnt a pattern change and th warm is coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Well, @JB Fins @Conway7305, et al, the 12Z Euro was a disappointment. Once the secondary low got going, there was hardly any precip except for SE VA. A little snow north and west of RIC from the initial wave seemed to have been better than earlier runs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th. Yeah, I was looking at that. I hope it pans out. Let's keep the opportunities coming. Still better than last winter, with wall-to-wall warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 This is the 12z EPS only through 00z Thursday. I'll post the entire run when it's finished. Bottom line, the snowfall mean for RIC for the 16th-17th storm continues to fall. Here was the RIC mean for the last 4 runs of the EPS. 1.3": 12Z 12th 1.4": 06Z 12th 2.0": 00z 12th 2.1": 18Z 11th 2.2": 12Z 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, RIC Airport said: This is the 12z EPS only through 00z Thursday. I'll post the entire run when it's finished. This is the snowfall mean, median, and the chance for 1" for the entire EPS run through hour 360. I also included the RIC, ORF, and ECG city charts, which show the snow totals from all 50 members. Definitely a drop, but keep the faith, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @Rhino16, @eaglesin2011@SoCoWx, @Stormpc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 E-38 was the snowiest for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 And things will look completely different by 0z Saturday. Lots of model spread. Let's get rid of this cutter and see what happens tomorrow afternoon. I still feel pretty good about the Richmond area for seeing some snow at least. Hunting the big dog is going to disappoint a lot of people. That's not in the cards right now. However maybe the 20th? Always the next one. Anyway for a hobbyist it should be an interesting and fun three days. Plus we have NFL playoffs except for that Saturday night crap on peacock which I'm not going to get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The greedy money grab that the NFL and NBC are pulling on a playoff game wants me to go full Clint Eastwood on them. Then NBC with their coverage on the Today show trumpeting the match up of the Chiefs and Dolphins like it was THE game. Throw in some Tay Tay references and I was ready to throw a brick through the TV. Keep it up NFL, you will have a lot less fans going forward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ugh….bad GFS run. May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough just isn’t in a good placement. Needs to be east a bit and sw/ energy can dig more into texas instead of TN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 54 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: ugh….bad GFS run. May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough just isn’t in a good placement. Needs to be east a bit and sw/ energy can dig more into texas instead of TN. Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 45 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Yeah, certainly wasn't ideal, but at least it didn't completely take away the snow. While I recognize it may not be a 6"+ event, I'm still rooting for an inch. Worse run for north of Richmond but it actually puts us coasties in the game for some late development with cold air becoming entrenched overnight Tuesday into wednesday. Wirh this kind of scraper, we can luck into an inch or two down this way. Obviously not ideal for the masses, but this is the one scenario where a very few of us can score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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