Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[wasnow215]

41 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong.

Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow.

 

ALSO-EPS a little better

[RIC Airport]

19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow.

55 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong.

Here is the EPS mean and 50 members thru 18z January 8th. I'll post the charts once the entire run is complete. 

 

[RIC Airport]

48 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

ALSO-EPS a little better

I looked closer at the EPS, and similar to the GEFS, major 850mb and surface temperature concerns remain. This is the mean of all members. 

The Euro ensemble mean 850 MB temperature at RIC go from 0°C at 7am Saturday to 2°C by 1pm and rise to 4°C by 7pm. Even as late as 1am Sunday, the 850mb temp only drops to 2°C before finally falling to -1°C by 7am.

Meanwhile, surface temps are 31°F at 7am Saturday as the precip approaches, then rise to 40°F by 1pm and peak at 42°F by 7pm. Surface temps drop to 35°F by 7am; by then, 850s are back below 0°C. So, any remaining precip should be frozen. The problem is most of the precip will be gone by then.

 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the EPS snowfall output from each of the 50 members for Richmond, @Rhino16, @wasnow215, @tigersaint11, @Conway7305, @SoCoWx.

And for fun, since E-10 was the snowiest dropping 11" at RIC, I pulled it to see how it came to its solution.  And even that member suggests RIC will go from rain and only to heavy snow once the low passes to our east and temperatures drop. Hopefully it's THE member that will be correct. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, Wakefield just sent the 2023 climate summary. Warm and snowless. 

 

[ldub23]

Even with this  low it  never really  gets  cold after  it  leaves. I think SEVA is  out  of the  game  this winter. Hopefully a storm will have the  R/S line east  of  RIC in JAN/FEB.

 

2 days  later  on jan 10 and  its  in the  60's. Just  no cold air

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JB  posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds  me  of the time texas got  brutal cold and  it  never  came east.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

42 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB  posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds  me  of the time texas got  brutal cold and  it  never  came east.

That was only a snap shot in time. The cold pushes east there after.

[wasnow215]

18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more.

[RIC Airport]

 

15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more.

The 18Z GFS still shows the major concerns I addressed earlier. There is this huge surge of warm air advection as the low approaches our area. The antecedent airmass was also not very cold.

 

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

 

The 18Z GFS still shows the major concerns I addressed earlier. There is this huge surge of warm air advection as the low approaches our area. The antecedent airmass was also not very cold.

 

Do you think there is still opportunity for it to trend Southeast or no?

[RIC Airport]

It also doesnt help that the surface low is practically tracking over SE VA and into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. 

[RIC Airport]

23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Do you think there is still opportunity for it to trend Southeast or no?

The models may need to get some upper air features, such as the position/strength of the high, the wave that moves to our S and E on the 4th, which eventually sets up as a 50/50 low. These need to be timed correctly and could be misplaced incorrectly in this run, so the rain/snow line fluctuates back and forth with each model run. We need to wait until the shortwaves get better sampling. But, right now, I urge caution against getting too excited.

Another concern are the warm SSTs, we had a warm year and a mild fall. Perhaps in another 3-4 weeks, we wouldn't have this problem with this surge of warmth coming from our SE when ocean temperatures are a bit colder....hopefully. 

[Conway7305]

Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps 

[Conway7305]

Not  terrible look On GFS Ensembles 

 

[RIC Airport]

13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps 

[Conway7305]

Just now, RIC Airport said:

 there is still some big hitters in there 

[Rhino16]

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

 there is still some big hitters in there 

Remember it’s not been updated yet from what I can tell, so it might not have the greatest depiction of things. The NAEFS was upgraded recently, but I don’t know what that is…

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

 

Here are the charts from the 18Z GEFS for RIC and ORF. Although there are signals around the 14th, the 1/6 to 1/7 event is the best snow opportunity. At hour 384, this troughing tendency is still out west, so the bulk of the cold only occasionally glances eastward. There are ways to work with this and we can still get chances, just makes things harder. But, can certainly change though. 

The EPS, on the other hand, was a much better look at the end of the run.

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 18z Euro Ensembles only goes out to hour 144 (Sunday at 1pm). Some encouraging signs, but still way too many misses, @Conway7305, @wasnow215

[Stormpc]

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

[RIC Airport]

17 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Just had a quick burst of light snow and grapple mixed in with the last shower that came through. First of the year (season too) on the coast. 

Nice, definitely an accomplishment!!! 

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS was awful. Like I said in an earlier post today, we'll have these fluctuations with the rain/snow line and track of the low.  

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

00Z GEFS

[wasnow215]

Models trending warmer and warmer. 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Models trending warmer and warmer. 

Yea, just  no cold air anywhere.

[Rhino16]

This is over for us. I just don’t see that big of a change in modeling this close to it. Was thinking this yesterday.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

This is over for us. I just don’t see that big of a change in modeling this close to it. Was thinking this yesterday.

The  problem with this storm was  no cold air. Seasonal isnt good enough here. Here  is  1 day after the storm and  there  is zero cold air  behind it. I  know the  models show  cold air  coming but  it  never seems to get here.

 

[RIC Airport]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

The  problem with this storm was  no cold air. Seasonal isnt good enough here. Here  is  1 day after the storm and  there  is zero cold air  behind it. I  know the  models show  cold air  coming but  it  never seems to get here.

Below are two maps from the GEFS and EPS.

I like the -NAO consistency. The last time we saw that was years ago. The -NAO is probably preventing us from torching like we did much of last winter. When you flip through the run, you can tell that pesky SE Ridge is just lurking down below Cuba. We also have an active southern stream, another component absent in recent winters.

We need to get rid of the troughing tendency in the West and a better mechanism to deliver cold in the east. Storms tend to cut to the Midwest and Ohio Valley with that orientation. Or indeed, farther north and west than is ideal for I-95. The end of the EPS was better than the GEFS, but certainly no amplified western ridge. We can still get a sneaky event with the right timing and placement of other features, but it complicates things.

There is still plenty of time left, and remember, March IS a snow month, too. 

GEFS 

 

EPS

 

It also doesn't help that the CONUS has not had much snow this winter, which doesn't help build and sustain cold like we've seen in Russia. 

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Below are two maps from the GEFS and EPS.

I like the -NAO consistency. The last time we saw that was years ago. The -NAO is probably preventing us from torching like we did much of last winter. When you flip through the run, you can tell that pesky SE Ridge is just lurking down below Cuba. We also have an active southern stream, another component absent in recent winters.

We need to get rid of the troughing tendency in the West and a better mechanism to deliver cold in the east. Storms tend to cut to the Midwest and Ohio Valley with that orientation. Or indeed, farther north and west than is ideal for I-95. The end of the EPS was better than the GEFS, but certainly no amplified western ridge. We can still get a sneaky event with the right timing and placement of other features, but it complicates things.

There is still plenty of time left, and remember, March IS a snow month, too. 

GEFS 

 

EPS

 

It also doesn't help that the CONUS has not had much snow this winter, which doesn't help build and sustain cold like we've seen in Russia. 

 

 

 

Thats all nice  but  here we are jan 18 and  its seasonally cool with no sign of arctic air taking  over for  weeks at a time. At some  point its going to have to turn cold and stay cold. The euro 360 map doesnt  match up with this. And  between now and then we will have  2  storms cutting well west  of the  mountains and we will be talking about severe weather  instead  of  cold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cutter  num 2

 

[RIC Airport]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Thats all nice  but  here we are jan 18 and  its seasonally cool with no sign of arctic air taking  over for  weeks at a time. At some  point its going to have to turn cold and stay cold. The euro 360 map doesnt  match up with this. And  between now and then we will have  2  storms cutting well west  of the  mountains and we will be talking about severe weather  instead  of  cold

Cutter  num 2

I understand that, and I just tried to explain why we are seeing the cutters, why it’s been tough getting cold in our part of the country, and what needs to change as we monitor the models.

Plus, so much can change beyond about 200 hours. For instance, the below 00Z GFS run from Christmas Day was torching us with highs around 70°F this Saturday when, recently, we have been tracking the potential for a snowstorm. We now know we won’t be anywhere near 70°F this Saturday.

In the future, you should use the ensembles, not the operational ones at that range, and then try to identify trends.  Ensembles are still subject to fluctuations, but using them for analysis is better. As you can see below, unlike the 12Z GEFS, the 18Z GEFS looks closer to the end of the 12Z EPS. I like the higher heights showing up in the southwest, and temperatures, while not extremely cold, are still slightly below average in the East. Hour 384 below could indicate things transitioning to a better pattern later on.  Again, if we change the overall flow and increase ridging in the west, it'll be better for snow opportunities here and less likely to see cutter after cutter.

However, I agree that the low to mid-40s aren’t cold in January, but once we get into the heart of winter, things could work out if it's just "cold enough."