RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Here is the snowfall mean for all euro ensemble members for the entire 00z run though hour 360 and the updated totals map for the 50 individual members Also, the specific Richmond and Norfolk snowfall outputs from each member thru hour 360. Yes, the ensmebles indicate another opportunity for snow around the 12-14th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 6z GFS is on board and was better than the 00z GFS. Precip arrives Saturday afternoon. Let's see if things trend better at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Hopefully it will trend better for central va, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Getting genuinely curious what it’s gonna take for it to snow more than a heavy dusting in the city again? It is only January, but time moves quick, and we won’t be in an El Niño forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Looks like 12z GFS is more suppressed then 6z. In fact, last two or three runs have a gradual suppression. That’s goood for us. More suppression gets us in the higher totals. Will push the rain snow line south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Can someone please post the individual 12z GEFS snow total maps when they are available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 56 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Can someone please post the individual 12z GEFS snow total maps when they are available? The dark blue has made it as far SE as RIC. I'll post them momentarily when they finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigersaint11 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The trend is our friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Here are the individuals thru 18z Monday, @Conway7305. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Chances for at least one inch of snow around Richmond keeps going up, now at around 40%. Hopefully this trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 While we await the Euro, major 850mb and surface temperature concerns remain if you are south and east a line from Caroline to Lousia to Buckingham. The ensemble mean would suggest 850s MB temperatures at RIC goes from 0°C at 10am Saturday to 1°C by 1pm and stays there until about 4am Sunday when it goes back to 0°C before finally reaching -1°C by 10am. Surface temperatures around Richmond are in the upper 30s to around 40°F the whole time. This is a mean, so obviously, there are colder members. We need to trend both of these colder. From my glean of the 12z GFS ensembles, the best chance for snow in Richmond is after the low passes and gets to our east on the back side. Whether it sticks is the big question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Well, the 12Z Euro just erased a lot of hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 41 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong. Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow. ALSO-EPS a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 19 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Correct-all other models trending colder past 3 runs- so one model that doesn’t show snow shouldn’t be thought of as a solution anymore than if Euro was the only one that was cold enough for snow. 55 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Very disappointing, but hopefully it’s wrong. Here is the EPS mean and 50 members thru 18z January 8th. I'll post the charts once the entire run is complete. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 48 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: ALSO-EPS a little better I looked closer at the EPS, and similar to the GEFS, major 850mb and surface temperature concerns remain. This is the mean of all members. The Euro ensemble mean 850 MB temperature at RIC go from 0°C at 7am Saturday to 2°C by 1pm and rise to 4°C by 7pm. Even as late as 1am Sunday, the 850mb temp only drops to 2°C before finally falling to -1°C by 7am. Meanwhile, surface temps are 31°F at 7am Saturday as the precip approaches, then rise to 40°F by 1pm and peak at 42°F by 7pm. Surface temps drop to 35°F by 7am; by then, 850s are back below 0°C. So, any remaining precip should be frozen. The problem is most of the precip will be gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Here is the EPS snowfall output from each of the 50 members for Richmond, @Rhino16, @wasnow215, @tigersaint11, @Conway7305, @SoCoWx. And for fun, since E-10 was the snowiest dropping 11" at RIC, I pulled it to see how it came to its solution. And even that member suggests RIC will go from rain and only to heavy snow once the low passes to our east and temperatures drop. Hopefully it's THE member that will be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Meanwhile, Wakefield just sent the 2023 climate summary. Warm and snowless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Even with this low it never really gets cold after it leaves. I think SEVA is out of the game this winter. Hopefully a storm will have the R/S line east of RIC in JAN/FEB. 2 days later on jan 10 and its in the 60's. Just no cold air JB posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds me of the time texas got brutal cold and it never came east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 42 minutes ago, ldub23 said: JB posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds me of the time texas got brutal cold and it never came east. That was only a snap shot in time. The cold pushes east there after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: 18z GFS less snow for RVA than 12z. Not over tho, just need 50 miles south and east and HP pushing down more. The 18Z GFS still shows the major concerns I addressed earlier. There is this huge surge of warm air advection as the low approaches our area. The antecedent airmass was also not very cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The 18Z GFS still shows the major concerns I addressed earlier. There is this huge surge of warm air advection as the low approaches our area. The antecedent airmass was also not very cold. Do you think there is still opportunity for it to trend Southeast or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 It also doesnt help that the surface low is practically tracking over SE VA and into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Do you think there is still opportunity for it to trend Southeast or no? The models may need to get some upper air features, such as the position/strength of the high, the wave that moves to our S and E on the 4th, which eventually sets up as a 50/50 low. These need to be timed correctly and could be misplaced incorrectly in this run, so the rain/snow line fluctuates back and forth with each model run. We need to wait until the shortwaves get better sampling. But, right now, I urge caution against getting too excited. Another concern are the warm SSTs, we had a warm year and a mild fall. Perhaps in another 3-4 weeks, we wouldn't have this problem with this surge of warmth coming from our SE when ocean temperatures are a bit colder....hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Not terrible look On GFS Ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: Can someone post the individual 18z GFS ensemble snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, RIC Airport said: there is still some big hitters in there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: there is still some big hitters in there Remember it’s not been updated yet from what I can tell, so it might not have the greatest depiction of things. The NAEFS was upgraded recently, but I don’t know what that is… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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