Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Nice! Too bad we only got 0.2" of snow out of it. 

Yup, getting tired of talking about this "pattern change" from a theoretical perspective, impatiently waiting to see things fall in place. But there is still plenty of time left.  All we need is 3 weeks of an excellent pattern to score, and even if it takes another 3-4 weeks to get there, we are still in the heart of winter. Looking at you February 2015 and others. 

@ldub23, GFS did have a SE VA snowstorm last night at 00Z in case you missed it. Fantasy land, of course. And of course, 12Z has a Midwest cutter at the end. The model flip flipping continues. 

 

I saw  it  but the  cold  never actually  comes. No arctic air anywhere  in the  country ans the winter  is  1/3 over.

[ldub23]

At Norfolk so far  this December  is  5 degrees warmer than last  december. Dec 2022 was  -2.1 and so far this december we are  +3.0. I didnt think it could  possibly warmer this winter than last. I was wrong, lol

[RIC Airport]

8 hours ago, ldub23 said:

At Norfolk so far  this December  is  5 degrees warmer than last  december. Dec 2022 was  -2.1 and so far this december we are  +3.0. I didnt think it could  possibly warmer this winter than last. I was wrong, lol

And RIC is at +3.6.  In fact, yesterday and the day before were +16 and +12, respectively, from their daily average. To put yesterday's +16 into perspective, the last time Richmond had a daily departure of -16 or lower was on Christmas Eve 2022, when the low temperature was 8°F, and the high was only 24°F, which was a -24 departure from average. We don't seem to get those negative departures as often anymore. 

So yes, It's been a warm month, although our part of the CONUS looks to have been spared the worst.

Also, through yesterday, Norfolk had received 6.34" of rain, which makes December 2023 the second wettest December on record. The wettest, December 2009, had 7.57" and appears safe as the latest models only have up to about 0.10 to 0.25" at best at ORF through the end of the year.

 

Also, Norfolk is moving toward its top 10 stretches of days with less than 1 inch of snow. 

 

[ldub23]

I still think we will get >1 this winter  just  by accident

[Rhino16]

5 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

And RIC is at +3.6.  In fact, yesterday and the day before were +16 and +12, respectively, from their daily average. To put yesterday's +16 into perspective, the last time Richmond had a daily departure of -16 or lower was on Christmas Eve 2022, when the low temperature was 8°F, and the high was only 24°F, which was a -24 departure from average. We don't seem to get those negative departures as often anymore. 

So yes, It's been a warm month, although our part of the CONUS looks to have been spared the worst.

Also, through yesterday, Norfolk had received 6.34" of rain, which makes December 2023 the second wettest December on record. The wettest, December 2009, had 7.57" and appears safe as the latest models only have up to about 0.10 to 0.25" at best through ORF through the end of the year.

 

Also, Norfolk is moving toward its top 10 stretches of days with less than 1 inch of snow. 

 

The 7.57” deserves to stay because that’s too perfect!

[RIC Airport]

Some thunder and lightning around and a few sleet pellets thrown in in spots with this upper level low. 

Anyone see any?
 

[Brubert]

We are getting big thunder and lightning!

[tigersaint11]

The 6z GFS threw Central VA a bone for next week.....with all the model flipping I am just hoping it's still there at noon.

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, tigersaint11 said:

The 6z GFS threw Central VA a bone for next week.....with all the model flipping I am just hoping it's still there at noon.

Fortunately, it is. However, there looks to be surface temp issues for Richmond metro and points southeast. Verbatim precip starts moving between 1am and 4am, and RIC is in the mid-30s to around 40 when the precip moves in, but temps DO drop to just above freezing by 1pm as the low passes and before the precip ends the evening of the 7th.  

 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

4 hours ago, tigersaint11 said:

The 6z GFS threw Central VA a bone for next week.....with all the model flipping I am just hoping it's still there at noon.

Some of the 12Z GFS ensembles have it, but many of them look warm or are complete shutouts. The snow mean from the 30 members for this event is around 1" of snow at RIC.

Watch closely as I slowed them down so you can see how each member handles this event.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

The 12z Euro has the storm, @tigersaint11 but similar to the 0z run region, we are too warm region-wide. There could be some snow/ice for some parts of the mountains. 

[RIC Airport]

Some of the European ensemble members show an opportunity for snow around January 7th and then again between the 12-14th of January. 

This EPS run was very encouraging for the overarching pattern. Really hope the GEFS trends this way. Rather than dropping the core of the cold out west, the EPS was faster in its delivery and farther east with the orientation of the cold. Also, the -NAO builds west toward Baffin Island, and the SE Ridge is kept at bay the whole run.

Keep your hopes alive!!!

 

[RIC Airport]

38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Some of the European ensemble members show an opportunity for snow around January 7th and then again between the 11-14th of January. 

This EPS run was very encouraging for the overarching pattern. Really hope the GEFS trends this way. Rather than dropping the core of the cold out west, the EPS was faster in its delivery and farther east with the orientation of the cold. Also, the -NAO builds west toward Baffin Island, and the SE Ridge is kept at bay the whole run.

Keep your hopes alive!!!

 

Below are the snowfall outputs for each ensemble member for both Richmond and Norfolk from the 12z EPS run. You can also see they indicate a snowstorm threat between January 12th and January 14th, which looks better than the January 7th threat as more members have something for that timeframe.

Ensemble Member 12 ^^ obliterates RIC and drops 26" of snow for January 7th. I'm only posting it for fun. It's extreme and obviously should not be taken literally. 

 

[tigersaint11]

Lot's of great info to unpack from RIC Airport. Thanks for the insight.....I can't help but think all of these s/w's that have been pummeling Central/Eastern VA will eventually run into some cold air. Maybe? Probably?

[ldub23]

54 minutes ago, tigersaint11 said:

Lot's of great info to unpack from RIC Airport. Thanks for the insight.....I can't help but think all of these s/w's that have been pummeling Central/Eastern VA will eventually run into some cold air. Maybe? Probably?

in 2025 lol. I do hope RVA gets  lucky  on the  7th. 

[RIC Airport]

56 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

in 2025 lol. I do hope RVA gets  lucky  on the  7th. 

The 18Z GFS has a similar outcome as the 12z where it puts out snow north and west of Richmond on January 7th. Still plenty of time for things to turn more favorable and for other models such as the Euro and Canadian to agree with a colder scenario. 

[RIC Airport]

Here are the 18z GFS ensemble members for around January 7th. I slowed them down so you can see how each member handles this event.

Below, the snow mean through 18z January 8th increased from the 12Z GFS ens I posted earlier. RIC, specifically, went from 0.8" to 1.2". 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Below are the snowfall outputs from each 18Z GFS ensemble member for RIC and ORF, with threats mainly around January 7th and then again from the 12-14th. 

 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the regional mean for the entire run.

 

[ldub23]

Could  be big  for  central va. high 10 mb stronger to the  north and  low  more east

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking good

 

 

Looks  like  i will be  on the  line  on the ICON

 

 

R/S  line right  over  my house  lol. Based  on the ICON i might  get  7 or  0

 

 

[RIC Airport]

56 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Could  be big  for  central va. high 10 mb stronger to the  north and  low  more east

 

I like that look. However, the 00Z GFS maintains the snow mostly north and west. Maybe the low deepens farther SE?  There is a surge of warm air over SE VA and up to RIC as the low approaches. Plenty of time to change for the better on the GFS, but not much different from today's earlier GFS runs. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I like that look. However, the 00Z GFS maintains the snow mostly north and west. Maybe the low deepens farther SE?  There is a surge of warm air over SE VA and up to RIC as the low approaches. Plenty of time to change for the better on the GFS, but not much different from today's earlier GFS runs. 

 

 

The 00z Canadian had a more favorable solution for Richmond. But, I think it might be too cold with the antecedent airmass, has widespread low-mid teens the morning of Saturday the 6th.

[RIC Airport]

The 00Z GFS ensembles continue to signal a storm threat for January 7th. The snowfall mean at RIC increased once again. 

The 1st map is a loop of the ensemble mean. The 2nd is a slowed-down loop so you can see how each of the 30 members handles this event. So watch closely!  There were several good hits for Richmond.

The final two maps are the snowfall totals for each ensemble member and a regional map of the snowfall mean for the period ending early Monday morning, January 8th.

 

[RIC Airport]

Here are the 00z GFS ensemble member snowfall outputs for Richmond and Norfolk. You can see there are opportunities between January 7th and 15th. 

I also included a map of the regional mean from the entire run.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Meanwhile, the 00z Euro was not our friend tonight. The ensembles might reveal hope for the 1/7 event, but I will check later in the morning. 

[ldub23]

High to the  north  is gone  on the  ICON. All rain. 

 

 

[RIC Airport]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

High to the  north  is gone  on the  ICON. All rain. 

We needed the Euro to get on board, and it didn't last night. Also, GFS has caved to the Euro, so that threat seems less likely today. There is still some uncertainty with how the rest of the month goes, and I'm not too fond of the troughing tendency in the middle and western CONUS. But there is plenty of time to monitor, and everything could change at the drop of a dime, and we get a sneaky event.

[CentralVaGirl]

I'm a lurker and weather novice. Just wanted to thank you for posting for the RIC area!

[RIC Airport]

13 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

We needed the Euro to get on board, and it didn't last night. Also, GFS has caved to the Euro, so that threat seems less likely today. There is still some uncertainty with how the rest of the month goes, and I'm not too fond of the troughing tendency in the middle and western CONUS. But there is plenty of time to monitor, and everything could change at the drop of a dime, and we get a sneaky event.

The 00Z Euro came back south and east. Verbatim, it's better if you're north and west of Richmond, but it still drops, accumulating snow even in Richmond this run. However, there is a sharp cut-off once you get south and east of Richmond. 

Precip actually arrives in the afternoon and evening of Saturday January 6th. There are some 850mb and surface temp concerns for RIC metro specifically (which I've looped below), but too early to get into the details as the model is subject to change. But, this is an encouraging development.

 

 

[RIC Airport]

Here is the snowfall from the 00Z Euro Ensembles through 7am on the morning of January 9th. Of course, this is a 10:1 ratio, but the mean from all the members is 1.2" at RIC. That is mainly from 6 or 7 of the 50 members as the vast majority of them, as you can see, are hits in northern and western VA, particularly from US Hwy 15 and westward.