RIC Airport Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 00z NAM was still pretty aggressive with snow falling east of the mountains Sunday night once the front passes. Best chances are north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 The 3k NAM has snow reaching I-95 around Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 The GFS is now on board with the idea of a period of snow along I-95 and parts of eastern VA Sunday night. The 00z run is the first to show this possibility. Surface temperatures remain above freezing, but perhaps if the snow falls heavy enough it could coat some surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 The 12Z GFS continued the idea of bringing a brief period of snow tomorrow night after the front passes. If true, the changeover looks to start occurring around 1am in the Richmond area and it could snow for a few hours. According to the GFS, rain could even change to snow as far SE as Williamsburg or the upper end of Newport News and York County. Surface temps remain above freezing, so any snow will struggle to accumulate. That said, any heavier rates could cause dynamic cooling sufficient enough to coat colder surfaces in spots. The GFS has area of heavier rates from Richmond and points NE toward Tappahannock and the northern neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 The short-term HRRR model, in its 18Z update, has the transition to snow for the western Tidewater and Piedmont areas of Virginia. Surface temperatures are in the mid-30s, so accumulations, if any, will only be dependent on rates and probably melt as soon as the precip lightens up. This will be an interesting development as every model now has showed a transition to snow for much of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 24 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: The short-term HRRR model, in its 18Z update, has the transition to snow for the western Tidewater and Piedmont areas of Virginia. Surface temperatures are in the mid-30s, so accumulations, if any, will only be dependent on rates and probably melt as soon as the precip lightens up. This will be an interesting development as every model now has showed a transition to snow for much of the state. The 18z NAM follows suit and is slightly more aggressive with the changeover to snow. It also has widespread 1-3" overall precipitation totals through 10am Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Hopefully RIC gets accumulating snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 My RIC Predictions: 10th: Hi/Lo: 66/45 Precip: 1.91" 11th: Hi/Lo: 51/30 Precip: 0.71" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Rhino16 said: My RIC Predictions: 10th: Hi/Lo: 66/45 Precip: 1.91" 11th: Hi/Lo: 51/30 Precip: 0.71" That seems about right, @Rhino16. It will be interesting to see how late the bulk of the precip reaches I-95 in the Richmond area tomorrow. That will potentially determine whether you are a bit too high for the 10th. I think I will go with a trace of snow at RIC for the 11th, the first of the season which gets RIC on par with stations like DCA and IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: That seems about right, @Rhino16. It will be interesting to see how late the bulk of the precip reaches I-95 in the Richmond area tomorrow. That will potentially determine whether you are a bit too high for the 10th. I think I will go with a trace of snow at RIC for the 11th, the first of the season which gets RIC on par with stations like DCA and IAD. Yeah that will be interesting. I didn’t mind the snow for richmond due to the small amounts. Here in Blacksburg though, I’m a bit more excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 The 00Z GFS has rain changing to snow in the Richmond metro area after 1 or 2 am. It maintains the earlier idea (along with other models) of a brief period of snow lasting several hours. Surface temps remain above freezing, although some areas that see heavier rates could see snow coat surfaces before it winds down closer to sunrise. Widespread 2-3" of rain is still likely. GFS has some spots exceeding 4". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 Transition to some snow won’t be too long after the Eagles beat Dallas! Let’s go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 There was a pretty good batch of heavy rain and some lightning in a few spots that came through earlier than I thought. The radar loop below is from 7:33am to 11:37am. This round pushed the rainfall amount up to 0.36" at RIC so far today. Looks to be a lull before additional rounds of heavier rains later this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Most of this area was just placed under a tornado watch. There was a tornado warning down near Raleigh earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Here is the 18z HRRR model's depiction of this evening and the transition to snow in the western Tidewater and Piedmont overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Radar is starting to light up around Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2023 Author Share Posted December 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 10, 2023 Share Posted December 10, 2023 So far, I think my rainfall for tomorrow was too much, and we’ll get most of that today, if any. Heavy stuff approaching. At 0.56” for the day at airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 RIC is up to 1.43” thru 9pm with another batch of heavy rains about to swing through. I think you may have a shot, @Rhino16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 00Z NAM still shows that transition from rain to snow from about 3am to 7am along I-95 and as far east as Williamsburg up to the Northern Neck. NWS Wakefield has snow in the grids for many areas tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 5 hours ago, Rhino16 said: So far, I think my rainfall for tomorrow was too much, and we’ll get most of that today, if any. Heavy stuff approaching. At 0.56” for the day at airport. RIC is up to 1.93" thru 10pm, with 2 more hours to go, @Rhino16. The daily record was only 1.53" set in 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Wind is Howling cold front coming through. Temps dropping in Powhatan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Snow is about to end in Blacksburg with a trace, best of luck to y’all at home. Thanks for the rainfall updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 Snowing in Roanoke moderate Snowfall in Wintergreen Here’s a pic on devils knob at 3500’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 Cold front is moving through now. RIC went from 62°F at 10pm to the mid 40s some 30 minutes later. Wakefield sent a statement about 10 minutes ago for places east of Richmond about to get the cold front. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1044 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 NCZ012-VAZ079>084-086>090-092-514-516-518-520-523-110515- Northampton-Surry-Dinwiddie-Southampton-Eastern Henrico-Eastern King and Queen-York-James City-Gloucester-Greensville-Charles City-Mathews-New Kent-Prince George-Sussex-Eastern King William-Brunswick-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- 1044 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 ...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHAMPTON...GREENSVILLE... SOUTHAMPTON...NORTHWESTERN YORK...SUSSEX...DINWIDDIE...JAMES CITY... SOUTHEASTERN CHESTERFIELD...GLOUCESTER...SOUTHEASTERN KING AND QUEEN...CHARLES CITY...PRINCE GEORGE...NEW KENT...SOUTHEASTERN HENRICO...SOUTHEASTERN KING WILLIAM...SURRY AND EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...THE CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS...THE CITY OF HOPEWELL...THE CITY OF PETERSBURG...THE CITY OF EMPORIA AND THE CITY OF WILLIAMSBURG... At 1040 PM EST, a cold front with winds in excess of 40 mph was from Shacklefords to 7 miles northwest of Dinwiddie to 12 miles south of Littleton. Movement was southeast at 30 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible as the front moves southeast through midnight. Locations impacted include... Newport News, Petersburg, Dinwiddie, Hopewell, New Kent, Colonial Heights, Roanoke Rapids, Williamsburg, Charles City, Emporia, Gloucester Courthouse, West Point, Waverly, Lawrenceville, Courtland, Garysburg, Rich Square, Wakefield, Boykins, and McKenney. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sn10_012h-imp&rh=2023121100&fh=12 Ground is to warm but have a good chance of seeing some flakes early morning hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowchill said: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=sn10_012h-imp&rh=2023121100&fh=12 Ground is to warm but have a good chance of seeing some flakes early morning hours! Fingers crossed for recording a trace!!! Too bad temps won't drop below the mid 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Fingers crossed for recording a trace!!! Too bad temps won't drop below the mid 30s. I bet you see more than we did out here. If so, I quit meteorology and will be changing majors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 First flakes of the season for Richmond metro area. A few hours to go. Might get a coating if it stays heavy enough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 It is really coming down in the Fan. Beautiful to see after last “winter”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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