RodneyS Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 On 12/4/2023 at 1:20 AM, MN Transplant said: What is the average guess at each site? Expand BWI: 25.5 DCA: 18.4 IAD: 28.1 RIC: 13.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 8th lowest guess and...feels way too optimistic at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 4, 2023 Author Share Posted December 4, 2023 On 12/4/2023 at 7:15 PM, North Balti Zen said: 8th lowest guess and...feels way too optimistic at this juncture. Expand Are you already regretting not following through on your below statement of November 10th? Just waiting til the last possible minute to go .1 across the board… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Kinda… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 From an earlier post, these are averages of the past contest winters: averages 2014/2015-2022/2023 ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ___ (total 48.4) past seven avg (2016/17- 22/23) ____ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 ___ (total 33.4) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 On 12/4/2023 at 10:58 PM, Roger Smith said: From an earlier post, these are averages of the past contest winters: averages 2014/2015-2022/2023 ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ___ (total 48.4) past seven avg (2016/17- 22/23) ____ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 ___ (total 33.4) Expand Thanks, Roger. I wonder if anyone ran a Mid-Atlantic contest on any Internet site in 2009-10? If so, were the picks abnormally high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 On 12/5/2023 at 12:05 AM, RodneyS said: Thanks, Roger. I wonder if anyone ran a Mid-Atlantic contest on any Internet site n 2009-10? If so, were the picks abnormally high? Expand Lots of stats here/below altho it may not include specific answers to your question. http://www.newx-forecasts.com A fun contest to forecast against yourself and others. If anyone recalls the “Joseph Bartlo days” on the 1990’s ne.weather Usenet bulletin boards, this is where some of us landed. Includes enough stats to make your head explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 5, 2023 Author Share Posted December 5, 2023 On 12/5/2023 at 10:37 AM, Herb@MAWS said: Lots of stats here/below altho it may not include specific answers to your question. http://www.newx-forecasts.com A fun contest to forecast against yourself and others. If anyone recalls the “Joseph Bartlo days” on the 1990’s ne.weather Usenet bulletin boards, this is where some of us landed. Includes enough stats to make your head explode. Expand Thanks, Herb. I know that the Capital Weather Gang had one of their better snow forecasts for 2009-10, but I'm not sure anyone foresaw the record amount of snow that season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 5, 2023 Share Posted December 5, 2023 Well I had a look (I participate in those contests) and apparently herb @ maws won the 2009-10 contest, the website does not preserve details but given 15-20 were usually in these contests, herb probably forecast close to what happened. I managed to win 2010-2011 and 2011-12 which surprised me since 2011-12 was probably a very snow-deficient winter but I do vaguely recall predicting a mild winter on Eastern wx before we got going here. I was going to plug the ne-wx site and will do it now, follow that link above and check it out. Don Sutherland (NYC) routinely does very well in storm forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Last call for two snowfall contests (deadlines for both are end of Sunday 10th): (1) On our site, in general interest forum, you can enter a nine-location snowfall contest in the Dec 2023 contest thread. (2) At link below, you can enter 25th annual northeast US snowfall contest for 25 locations in the eastern US, as well as storm forecast contests announced on site when available... http://newxsfc.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 RIC up to 0.2" after this morning's snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 1:53 PM, RIC Airport said: RIC up to 0.2" after this morning's snow. Expand Thanks. So RIC and IAD (0.5 inches) have exceeded last season's snow totals. I have not yet heard about measurable snow at BWI or DCA. I will update the spreadsheet when I do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 2:35 PM, RodneyS said: Thanks. So RIC and IAD (0.5 inches) have exceeded last season's snow totals. I have not yet heard about measurable snow at BWI or DCA. I will update the spreadsheet when I do. Expand LWX had 0.1" for DCA in their PNS statement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 BWI is T 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 11, 2023 Author Share Posted December 11, 2023 Based on the numbers from the Capital Weather Gang, RIC Airport, and yoda, below is the updated spreadsheet. EastCoast NPZ is still in the lead, but he does have an unwanted distinction that no one achieved last season: Negative departures at DCA, IAD, and RIC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 2:41 PM, yoda said: BWI is T Expand WBAL Mets are crying foul on Twitter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2023 Share Posted December 11, 2023 On 12/11/2023 at 2:57 PM, WxUSAF said: WBAL Mets are crying foul on Twitter Expand I only see a T on the PNS above... but yeah I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 If you could revise lower right now- would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 On 12/26/2023 at 5:44 PM, Prestige Worldwide said: If you could revise lower right now- would you? Expand Maybe -4 inches or so, enough that the totals could be achieved in 1 storm only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 On 12/26/2023 at 5:44 PM, Prestige Worldwide said: If you could revise lower right now- would you? Expand No, we could hit my totals with 2 bigger events. See no reason to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 On 11/2/2023 at 4:24 PM, aldie 22 said: The dry is worrisome and I do think temps will be an issue BWI: 13.7" DCA: 9.2" IAD: 16.1" RIC: 9.6" SBY: 8.9" Expand I guess I had a different vision than Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 On 12/30/2023 at 1:55 PM, aldie 22 said: I guess I had a different vision than Ji Expand No, no, EVERYONE went high. You are clearly reading it wrong. Ji said everyone and then cited chuck’s guess as evidence… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Seventeen people believed there would be more snow than I did -- in itself, some kind of new record. Usually it's closer to four or five maybe. I would probably take a few lower now just because we're still at zero and I thought Dec could produce a few inches, but otherwise, the pattern looks to be evolving in a good direction. Anyway, we are stuck with the original guesses, so over-performers are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/31/2023 at 10:25 AM, Roger Smith said: Seventeen people believed there would be more snow than I did -- in itself, some kind of new record. Usually it's closer to four or five maybe. I would probably take a few lower now just because we're still at zero and I thought Dec could produce a few inches, but otherwise, the pattern looks to be evolving in a good direction. Anyway, we are stuck with the original guesses, so over-performers are welcome. Expand Obviously it’s past the deadline but I might post a late entry just for fun later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 15, 2024 Author Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 12/11/2023 at 2:50 PM, RodneyS said: Based on the numbers from the Capital Weather Gang, RIC Airport, and yoda, below is the updated spreadsheet. EastCoast NPZ is still in the lead, but he does have an unwanted distinction that no one achieved last season: Negative departures at DCA, IAD, and RIC. Expand I see that as of 1 PM today (Monday, MLK day), DCA is reporting 0.7 inches and IAD is reporting 0.9 inches. By tomorrow morning, we should have a new leader -- something that did not happen last season ;-). I will update the leader board on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 16, 2024 Author Share Posted January 16, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 8:21 PM, RodneyS said: I see that as of 1 PM today (Monday, MLK day), DCA is reporting 0.7 inches and IAD is reporting 0.9 inches. By tomorrow morning, we should have a new leader -- something that did not happen last season ;-). I will update the leader board on Tuesday. Expand We indeed have a new leader -- previous Mid-Atlantic snow contest operator @PrinceFrederickWx. So far, the reports for this storm are as follows: BWI 4.9 inches DCA 4.1 inches IAD 4.4 inches RIC 0.5 inches There still may be updates to these figures, but the table below shows the current standings. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 I gotta survive Friday but then I should be good for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 16, 2024 Author Share Posted January 16, 2024 On 1/16/2024 at 3:58 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: I gotta survive Friday but then I should be good for awhile. Expand Your two closest competitors can't catch you, and so if we get no more than an inch at each of the airports on Friday, you will remain in the lead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Until Feb 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 16, 2024 Author Share Posted January 16, 2024 On 1/16/2024 at 6:49 PM, Roger Smith said: Until Feb 5-6. Expand I dunno, Roger, AccuWeather's long-range forecast calls for sunny skies in DC on those two days, and when has that forecast ever been wrong? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/washington/20006/daily-weather-forecast/327659?day=21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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