9th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

[RodneyS]

31 minutes ago, stormy said:

Lynchburg 13.5 inches

Thanks.

[winter_warlock]

BWI: 31.4 "

 

DCA: 21.5"

 

IAD: 31.3"

 

RIC: 12.5"

 

Tiebreaker SBY: 4.5"

 

MBY: 29.5"

 

 

[psuhoffman]

BWI:	42"
DCA:	32"
IAD:	43"
RIC:	20"
LYC:	31"

[Scraff]

BWI: 38.4"

DCA: 23.3"

IAD: 39.2"

RIC: 19.8"

 

SBY: 11.7"

[cnimbus]

BWI:      41.5

DCA:     32.7

IAD:       48.6

RIC:       34.9

 

SBY:      22.6

[Tullioz]

BWI: 28.6"

DCA: 24.4"

IAD: 27.6"

RIC: 14.7"

Tiebreaker: SBY: 11.9"

[Rhino16]

BWI: 25.4”

DCA: 18.4”

IAD: 26.9”

RIC: 16.3”

Tiebreaker LYH: 20.2”

[Herb@MAWS]

BWI:  27”
DCA: 18”
IAD:   28”
RIC:   12”

Tiebreaker SBY 13”

[09-10 analogy]

BWI: 27.2"

DCA: 17.2"

IAD: 31.2"

RIC: 15.2"

Tiebreaker -- SBY: 9.2"

My front yard: 365.22" (actually 26.2")

[Eskimo Joe]

BWI: 12

DCA: 5

IAD: 15

RIC: 4

Tiebreaker -- SBY: 4

[87storms]

BWI: 16.1 
DCA: 14.2
IAD: 18.1
RIC: 7.5

Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.7

El Nino has been cranking, but I'm a believer that patterns can take some time to change.  Aside from the drought conditions, the SER and SSTs have been a thing lately.  I could see this being one of those winters with a number of snow to mix/rain scenarios, especially if the storm track continues to favor a NW track.  Not sure I'm getting blizzard vibes this season, but we are due for one, which would obviously change the entire contest lol.

[North Balti Zen]

Watching the long range thread carefully so I can jump in still with my .1s across the board just before the cutoff. 

[BristowWx]

BWI: 11.2”

DCA: 6.7”

IAD: 11.7”

RIC: 12.3”

Tiebreaker SBY: 10.1”

[Roger Smith]

I looked back at previous snowfall contests, first point being, this is actually the tenth one, they date back to winter 2014-15.

In winter 2013-14 there was a contest to predict how often winter storm warnings would be issued. But no snowfall contest in evidence in thread titles.

The history of contest results is interesting, in all but three winters, just about all forecasts were too high. Over nine contests, about 85% of forecasts were too high in total and probably about 75 to 80 per cent were too high for specific locations. It would be even worse except for an opposite tendency in 2015-16. I show the nine and also last seven -year average values to see how they do in 2023-24. I continue to think that this winter will be a good one, so I won't transfer those to my forecast (and I may regret it) ...

  

Winter _____ BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _____ winner (total error) ______ notes

2022-23 ___ 0.2 __ 0.4 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _____ Little Village Wx +13.0 __ all fcsts too high in total snow

2021-22 ___14.4 __13.2 __15.8 __ 4.7 _____ I Used to hate Cold (4.6) __ about 2/3 fcsts too high, just a few were too low

2020-21 ___10.9 __ 5.4 __ 12.0 __ 7.0 _____NorthArlington101 (3.1) __ about 3/4 fcsts too high at all locations  

2019-20 ____1.8 ___ 0.6 __ 2.9 __ 1.5 ______ Prestige Worldwide (3.6) __ all fcsts too high in total snowfall

2018-19 ___ 21.1 __16.9 __21.6 _ 13.9 _____ Olafminesaw (7.9) won tiebreaker with Stormpc also 7.9, RodneyS close at 8.2 

___________________________________________ about 3/4 of all forecasts were too high despite a fairly good outcome

2017-18 ____15.4 __ 7.8 _ 11.9 __ 12.4 _____ Olafminesaw (6.8) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow

2016-17 ____ 3.0 __ 3.4 __ 7.3 ___ 7.1 ______ stormpc (16.1) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow 

2015-16 ____35.1 __ 22.2 __ 34.3 __15.1 ____ shadowzone (7.0) ___ forecasts scattered around result but 2/3 too low

_________________________________________ almost all snow was on Jan 23: with only 0.3" at IAD before event,

_________________________________________ post-storm totals were listed as 30.0, 18.8, 29.8 (29.5 storm), 12.1

_________________________________________ so rest of winter was 5.1, 3.4, 4.5, 3.0 if storm values were not revised

2014-15 ____ 28.7 __18.3 __36.9 __12.8 ____ nwbaltimorewx (3.4) ____ forecasts scattered around result

_____________________________ _________________________________

 

averages ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ____ average winning error total (6.2") _ 1.5 to 1.6 per location

past seven __ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 

===============

From above it can be seen best forecast all-time was 3.1" total error (NorthArlington101 2019-20). Nwbaltimorewx was close at 3.4" in 2014-15. 

Keywords: optimism, climatology denial, occasional surprise endings

(later edit _ irony alert noted)

[mattie g]

9 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I looked back at previous snowfall contests, first point being, this is actually the tenth one, they date back to winter 2014-15.

In winter 2013-14 there was a contest to predict how often winter storm warnings would be issued. But no snowfall contest in evidence in thread titles.

The history of contest results is interesting, in all but three winters, just about all forecasts were too high. Over nine contests, about 85% of forecasts were too high in total and probably about 75 to 80 per cent were too high for specific locations. It would be even worse except for an opposite tendency in 2015-16. I show the ten-year average values to see how they do in 2023-24. I continue to think that this winter will be a good one, so I won't transfer those to my forecast (may regret it) ...

  

Winter _____ BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _____ winner (total error) ______ notes

2022-23 ___ 0.2 __ 0.4 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _____ Little Village Wx +13.0 __ all fcsts too high in total snow

2021-22 ___14.4 __13.2 __15.8 __ 4.7 _____ I Used to hate Cold (4.6) __ about 2/3 fcsts too high, just a few were too low

2020-21 ___10.9 __ 5.4 __ 12.0 __ 7.0 _____NorthArlington101 (3.1) __ about 3/4 fcsts too high at all locations  

2019-20 ____1.8 ___ 0.6 __ 2.9 __ 1.5 ______ Prestige Worldwide (3.6) __ all fcsts too high in total snowfall

2018-19 ___ 21.1 __16.9 __21.6 _ 13.9 _____ Olafminesaw (7.9) won tiebreaker with Stormpc also 7.9, RodneyS close at 8.2 

___________________________________________ about 3/4 of all forecasts were too high despite a fairly good outcome

2017-18 ____15.4 __ 7.8 _ 11.9 __ 12.4 _____ Olafminesaw (6.8) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow

2016-17 ____ 3.0 __ 3.4 __ 7.3 ___ 7.1 ______ stormpc (16.1) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow 

2015-16 ____35.1 __ 22.2 __ 34.3 __15.1 ____ shadowzone (7.0) ___ forecasts scattered around result but 2/3 too low (almost all snow was on Jan 23)

2014-15 ____ 28.7 __18.3 __36.9 __12.8 ____ nwbaltimorewx (3.4) ____ forecasts scattered around result
_____________________________

averages ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ____ average winning error total (6.2") _ 1.5 to 1.6 per location

past seven __ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 

===============

From above it can be seen best forecast all-time was 3.1" total error (NorthArlington101 2019-20). Nwbaltimorewx was close at 3.4" in 2014-15. 

Keywords: optimism, climatology denial, occasional surprise endings

Claiming that we have collective climatology denial is actually pretty harsh. I don't think anyone here denies that our snow climo isn't great, but unless you're one of the Debs on this forum (you know who you are), what fun is it to go into a season picking low snow numbers? It's more about optimism and the hope that we can break our snow duck.

[North Balti Zen]

That's an absolutely hilarious post, too, from Roger Smith of all people. 

[Roger Smith]

Guilty as charged, I wasn't intending to be overly critical just analytical, and I certainly do tend to go too high on snowfall in your region (irony alert noted), but it's interesting that I actually went lower than outcome in 2015-16, the only time I managed to finish in top half of contest, I was near middle of pack in one or two others but I am usually way too high and it's not from any "what the heck it's just for fun" attitude but I make a genuine error in forecast. If I ever foresaw low numbers I would predict low numbers, same goes for first freeze contest, I just predict what I believe will happen, not what I hope, partly because I don't have any strong reason to hope for any particular outcomes. 

This winter a quick look at forecasts so far would suggest I am not far from consensus so that could be a good sign, as it was true of all three of the best winters above. Perhaps half of the low forecasts are yet to be revealed however. 

I notice that in the contest years I looked at, the range of forecasts was almost the same in each contest (last winter generally a bit lower), and forecasts varied a lot less than the outcomes varied. It would be interesting to see who (if anybody) had a consistent better than consensus variability, in other words, who was consistently up in heavy snow winters and down in low ones. I would imagine there are a few showing skill, I do better at this further north and always have trouble processing how difficult it can be to get all factors to converge for snow south of 40N. 

Anyway, the averages for the recent seven winters (after the two really good ones) are a lot lower than climatology and if you predicted those seven-year values you would have done better than most, in fact those seven-year averages would almost have won in 2020-2021.

 

[GramaxRefugee]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

... I do better at this further north and always have trouble processing how difficult it can be to get all factors to converge for snow south of 40N. ...

 

I've had visitors here in winter that also expect us to get more snow than we do. But my friend from coastal Maine, who always hated their weather, described winter as a week of below zero temps followed by a warm up and rain. He's just described winter on much of the East coast; (adjusted for temp).

[arlwx12]

I'm a warminista.

Last year was a pleasant surprise ((for me)).

I'm just wondering if the over-the hill- er over-40s- are as enthusiastic about sxxx as the younger ones are.

I just forecast my perceptions of climo, trimmed a bit (have to be optimistic...)

[North Balti Zen]

After reading the latest from the usual sad folks, gonna jump in at the last minute with -20 inches for each reporting station. 

[GATECH]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

After reading the latest from the usual sad folks, gonna jump in at the last minute with -20 inches for each reporting station. 

With all the holiday travel I expect the jet exhaust will keeps things toasty at DCA

[PrinceFrederickWx]

20 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I looked back at previous snowfall contests, first point being, this is actually the tenth one, they date back to winter 2014-15.

In winter 2013-14 there was a contest to predict how often winter storm warnings would be issued. But no snowfall contest in evidence in thread titles.

The history of contest results is interesting, in all but three winters, just about all forecasts were too high. Over nine contests, about 85% of forecasts were too high in total and probably about 75 to 80 per cent were too high for specific locations. It would be even worse except for an opposite tendency in 2015-16. I show the nine and also last seven -year average values to see how they do in 2023-24. I continue to think that this winter will be a good one, so I won't transfer those to my forecast (and I may regret it) ...

  

Winter _____ BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC _____ winner (total error) ______ notes

2022-23 ___ 0.2 __ 0.4 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _____ Little Village Wx +13.0 __ all fcsts too high in total snow

2021-22 ___14.4 __13.2 __15.8 __ 4.7 _____ I Used to hate Cold (4.6) __ about 2/3 fcsts too high, just a few were too low

2020-21 ___10.9 __ 5.4 __ 12.0 __ 7.0 _____NorthArlington101 (3.1) __ about 3/4 fcsts too high at all locations  

2019-20 ____1.8 ___ 0.6 __ 2.9 __ 1.5 ______ Prestige Worldwide (3.6) __ all fcsts too high in total snowfall

2018-19 ___ 21.1 __16.9 __21.6 _ 13.9 _____ Olafminesaw (7.9) won tiebreaker with Stormpc also 7.9, RodneyS close at 8.2 

___________________________________________ about 3/4 of all forecasts were too high despite a fairly good outcome

2017-18 ____15.4 __ 7.8 _ 11.9 __ 12.4 _____ Olafminesaw (6.8) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow

2016-17 ____ 3.0 __ 3.4 __ 7.3 ___ 7.1 ______ stormpc (16.1) ____ almost all forecasts were too high in total snow 

2015-16 ____35.1 __ 22.2 __ 34.3 __15.1 ____ shadowzone (7.0) ___ forecasts scattered around result but 2/3 too low

_________________________________________ almost all snow was on Jan 23: with only 0.3" at IAD before event,

_________________________________________ post-storm totals were listed as 30.0, 18.8, 29.8 (29.5 storm), 12.1

_________________________________________ so rest of winter was 5.1, 3.4, 4.5, 3.0 if storm values were not revised

2014-15 ____ 28.7 __18.3 __36.9 __12.8 ____ nwbaltimorewx (3.4) ____ forecasts scattered around result

_____________________________ _________________________________

 

averages ___ 14.5 __ 9.8 __ 15.8 __ 8.3 ____ average winning error total (6.2") _ 1.5 to 1.6 per location

past seven __ 9.5 __ 6.9 __ 10.3 __ 6.7 

===============

From above it can be seen best forecast all-time was 3.1" total error (NorthArlington101 2019-20). Nwbaltimorewx was close at 3.4" in 2014-15. 

Keywords: optimism, climatology denial, occasional surprise endings

(later edit _ irony alert noted)

I started counting from the year I started running the contest; Rodney just continued from there. I have no idea what contests were run in the years before. At the time (if I remember correctly) no one was interested in doing a snowfall contest that year, so I set it up.

I wouldn’t go so far to say it’s “climatology denial,” but I wasn’t joking when I posted earlier this month about the snow totals getting pumped up, followed by revisions downwards right before the close. I think there’s a tendency around mid-November for people to get all hyped up; they see digital snow for the first time maybe, or a perfect pattern being shown in the long range, and start to think, “maybe this is the year, finally?”

There also just seems to be a tendency in recent years for the models to give weenie solutions around Veteran’s Day, followed by a rug pull right after Thanksgiving.

 

[WxUSAF]

BWI: 22.6”

DCA: 17.4”

IAD: 25.1”

RIC: 12.5”

SBY: 11.9”

[TSSN+]

BWI: 19.5”

DCA: 14.8”

IAD: 22.2”

RIC: 8.7”

SBY: 5.4”

[toolsheds]

BWI: 44.3”

DCA: 33.6”

IAD: 44.2”

RIC: 26.4”

Tiebreaker SBY: 23.5”

[AtlanticWx]

bwi: 38.2"

iad: 41.3"

dca: 31.0"

ric: 24.8"

tiebreaker (sby): 13.5"

[arlwx12]

For you snowlovers:

Please explain why you are forecasting more than two inches above climo.

[RodneyS]

7 hours ago, AtlanticWx said:

bwi: 38.2"

iad: 41.3"

dca: 31.0"

tiebreaker (sby): 13.5"

Thanks, but I need a number for RIchmond.

[weatherCCB]

BWI - 35.7”

DCA - 23.8”

IAD - 34.8”

RIC - 20.6”

SBY - 19.3”

[87storms]

For you snowlovers:
Please explain why you are forecasting more than two inches above climo.

This season is being portrayed as a boom or bust year. The average is usually unlikely to occur because of how large of a standard deviation we have wrt snowfall, though this year I actually could see us being around that average. It’s just kinda hard to believe we go from basically getting skunked last year to an epic season this year. However, weather is very much an odds game and the odds seem to favor the latter for now.

With that said, we should have a better idea by March.