November 2023 General Discussion

[Chinook]

There have been scattered of rain showers with a couple of lightning bolts in Chicagoland. (you can see 5 bolt symbols on here if you look closely) It seems like they have the shape of supercells at times, but don't really have noticeable rotation on the SRV radar screen.

 

[cyclone77]

Picked up 0.21" rain late this afternoon. 

Most trees in this area are bare now other than the oaks which are near peak.

[sbnwx85]

Quality thunderboomers. A nice surprise. 

[Chambana]

79’d. Really wanted to hit that elusive 80 in November benchmark. None the less, extremely impressive. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

“Cool” front moved through bringing very gusty NW winds this evening near 40mph. Tomorrow and Friday look seasonal to slightly cooler then average then the torch cranks up. 60s here next week.

Since everyone has been talking about leaf drop, there’s a photo from Thanksgiving day 97’ or 98’ of my brother and I in a giant pile of freshly fallen leaves in Lake County Illinois. I believe sun angle and length of daylight dictates leaf drop a bit more then temperature. 
 

I know it’s gentle trolling but if the Great Lakes region could ever support palms we’d be looking at global crop failure and famine.

[roardog]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

BTW you realize cromartie was lying. There is no way he was done raking by mid-October in the 1990s and now not until late-November. I guess somehow magically his leaves fell 2-3 weeks earlier in the 1990s and now fall 2-3 weeks later than they do at a similar climate here in SE MI. 

I was born in the 1970s and I can tell you that other than the slight year to year variation, both peak fall colors and spring leaf out has changed very little. There were always a lot of leaves on the ground on Halloween night when I was a kid, the same as it is now. 
 Palm dude probably used to run his snow maker in August in the ‘90s because it used to be cold back then. 

[roardog]

32 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

 

I know it’s gentle trolling but if the Great Lakes region could ever support palms we’d be looking at global crop failure and famine.

Humans would probably be wiped out by the time palms were growing in Marquette. lol

[Lightning]

Nice boomer right now 

[hardypalmguy]

“Cool” front moved through bringing very gusty NW winds this evening near 40mph. Tomorrow and Friday look seasonal to slightly cooler then average then the torch cranks up. 60s here next week.
Since everyone has been talking about leaf drop, there’s a photo from Thanksgiving day 97’ or 98’ of my brother and I in a giant pile of freshly fallen leaves in Lake County Illinois. I believe sun angle and length of daylight dictates leaf drop a bit more then temperature. 
 
I know it’s gentle trolling but if the Great Lakes region could ever support palms we’d be looking at global crop failure and famine.

We would figure it out. There’s tropical plant fossils found as far north as Canada during the Jurassic period.

[Chicago Storm]

Maybe then, y'all can experience the greatness that is In-N-Out...

there is nothing great about that place, that’s for sure.


.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

We would figure it out. There’s tropical plant fossils found as far north as Canada during the Jurassic period.

Continental drift, but there have been periods of Earth’s history where the poles are ice free. 

[A-L-E-K]

23 hours ago, IWXwx said:

 

as anyone who lives along the lake knows, the water in lake michigan already looks tropical clear and blue when winds are calm thanks to the mussels, the palms are gonna look so natural in this setting. 

[luckyweather]

8 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Continental drift, but there have been periods of Earth’s history where the poles are ice free. 

Canada / Laurasia was well north of the equator by the Jurassic, (was equatorial more toward the Cambrian), not sure if palm guy is up on his paleogeology or was just a lucky guess, but as you said the planet was *hot* in the Jurassic with 4x the co2 of today from volcanism and there are palm fossils on the Canadian coasts from both the Jurassic even going into the Cretaceous. Got so hot in the early Jurassic the ocean died / the Jenkyns event. As an oil and gas guy, that’s when some of the rich deposits originate. When our ecosystems and biomes collapse and the palms return to Canada our decay will lay down a nice field of jet fuel for whatever life form takes over next in a few hundred million years. 

[hardypalmguy]

2 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

Canada / Laurasia was well north of the equator by the Jurassic, (was equatorial more toward the Cambrian), not sure if palm guy is up on his paleogeology or was just a lucky guess, but as you said the planet was *hot* in the Jurassic with 4x the co2 of today from volcanism and there are palm fossils on the Canadian coasts from both the Jurassic even going into the Cretaceous. Got so hot in the early Jurassic the ocean died / the Jenkyns event. As an oil and gas guy, that’s when some of the rich deposits originate. When our ecosystems and biomes collapse and the palms return to Canada our decay will lay down a nice field of jet fuel for whatever life form takes over next in a few hundred million years. 

we would do just fine.  probably find me on a hammock on the coast of lake superior under the coconut palms.

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

as anyone who lives along the lake knows, the water in lake michigan already looks tropical clear and blue when winds are calm thanks to the mussels, the palms are gonna look so natural in this setting. 

yup, the mussels are turning the water crystal clear.  doesn't look like lake water anymore.

[Stebo]

Decent bit of storms yesterday evening, didn't amount to much rain though. Looks to be dry for the next week to 10 days with seasonal to seasonally warm temperatures. Pretty boring stretch to be honest.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, luckyweather said:

Canada / Laurasia was well north of the equator by the Jurassic, (was equatorial more toward the Cambrian), not sure if palm guy is up on his paleogeology or was just a lucky guess, but as you said the planet was *hot* in the Jurassic with 4x the co2 of today from volcanism and there are palm fossils on the Canadian coasts from both the Jurassic even going into the Cretaceous. Got so hot in the early Jurassic the ocean died / the Jenkyns event. As an oil and gas guy, that’s when some of the rich deposits originate. When our ecosystems and biomes collapse and the palms return to Canada our decay will lay down a nice field of jet fuel for whatever life form takes over next in a few hundred million years. 

Agreed. Continental drift (in terms of latitudinal change) is only a small part of those past climate regions - it takes many eons to make a huge difference. Bigger changes to local climates come from uplift of the surface, formation of mountains, etc.  During the Cretaceous, there was a shallow ocean covering much of the middle of the continent known as the Western Interior Seaway. Uplift of the Rockies led to a depression in the continental shelf over the interior that filled with waters from the ocean. The continent was essentially split into two mountainous islands (Appalachians on the east). I'm sure the shallow inland ocean and the lower altitude of much of the continent played a big role in the moderate climate of North America in that era, in addition to the relatively high levels of carbon dioxide.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

2 hours ago, luckyweather said:

As an oil and gas guy

What do you do in the industry? I was a mudlogger/wellsite geologist from 2014-2017.

[A-L-E-K]

Some SAD before WAD returns

 

 

[Brian D]

Oct prelim data in, and ends on a warmer note. Oct's have been running fairly normal, swinging back and forth from avg, in recent years. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

“Cool” front moved through bringing very gusty NW winds this evening near 40mph. Tomorrow and Friday look seasonal to slightly cooler then average then the torch cranks up. 60s here next week.

Since everyone has been talking about leaf drop, there’s a photo from Thanksgiving day 97’ or 98’ of my brother and I in a giant pile of freshly fallen leaves in Lake County Illinois. I believe sun angle and length of daylight dictates leaf drop a bit more then temperature. 
 

I know it’s gentle trolling but if the Great Lakes region could ever support palms we’d be looking at global crop failure and famine.

Just for the record, my post was not gentle trolling. I think if we continue business as usual, hardy palms like sabols and windmills will certainly be cultivatable without protection in much of the Great Lakes region. Models indicate up to 6C of globally-averaged warming, with climates in the Great Lakes approaching those of the southern US by the end of the century. If your position is hardy palms could not grow in the Great Lakes on a business-as-usual trajectory, I'm going to have to disagree as that would require ignoring what the models depict. Obviously, the pictures of coconut palms are trolling.

With the added impacts of what essentially amounts to an inland sea, I would expect wintertime minima to be even more moderate than those observed in the southern U.S. in past history. My wife is from the United Kingdom, and there are plenty of hardy palms there and that's even further north. While an oceanic climate, it wasn't too long ago that the U.K. was much colder than it is today (see frost fairs on the River Thames during the Little Ice Age). I would expect the Great Lakes to have a similar wintertime climate given the moderating effect of the lakes.

I do agree with the second part of your last sentence (regarding crop failures), which speaks towards the likelihood of continuing on a business-as-usual path, and not towards the likelihood of palms growing in the region should we persist on that path. I would suspect the powers that be would rather block out the sun than let us enjoy a subtropical paradise here in the Lakes.

[Stebo]

51 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just for the record, my post was not gentle trolling. I think if we continue business as usual, hardy palms like sabols and windmills will certainly be cultivatable without protection in much of the Great Lakes region. Models indicate up to 6C of globally-averaged warming, with climates in the Great Lakes approaching those of the southern US by the end of the century. If your position is hardy palms could not grow in the Great Lakes on a business-as-usual trajectory, I'm going to have to disagree as that would require ignoring what the models depict. Obviously, the pictures of coconut palms are trolling.

With the added impacts of what essentially amounts to an inland sea, I would expect wintertime minima to be even more moderate than those observed in the southern U.S. in past history. My wife is from the United Kingdom, and there are plenty of hardy palms there and that's even further north. While an oceanic climate, it wasn't too long ago that the U.K. was much colder than it is today (see frost fairs on the River Thames during the Little Ice Age). I would expect the Great Lakes to have a similar wintertime climate given the moderating effect of the lakes.

I do agree with the second part of your last sentence (regarding crop failures), which speaks towards the likelihood of continuing on a business-as-usual path, and not towards the likelihood of palms growing in the region should we persist on that path. I would suspect the powers that be would rather block out the sun than let us enjoy a subtropical paradise here in the Lakes.

Keep this climate stuff in the climate forum and the politics should not be on weather side either.

[TheClimateChanger]

20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Keep this climate stuff in the climate forum and the politics should not be on weather side either.

I didn't start the discussion - funny, how I'm the only one disciplined.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't start the discussion - funny, how I'm the only one disciplined.

You have been asked multiple times to keep that stuff in the correct place, but yes others should also as well especially when it devolves into politics which you did do.

[Powerball]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:40 AM, A-L-E-K said:

in-n-out is bad tho

To each his/her own.

The food itself is not fancy or gourmet, but it's about the entire experience. At In-N-Out, you always get excellent customer service, fresh food and the lines are fast. The prices are also relatively low.

Culver's is good too, but a lot of its food (besides the Ice Cream) is frozen/prepackaged, service can be inconsistent and it's more expensive.

But regardless, we're still a long ways off before In-N-Out's palm trees can survive a Great Lakes winter.

[hardypalmguy]

22 minutes ago, Powerball said:

To each his/her own.

The food itself is not fancy or gourmet, but it's about the entire experience. At In-N-Out, you always get excellent customer service, fresh food and the lines are fast. The prices are also relatively low.

Culver's is good too, but a lot of its food (besides the Ice Cream) is frozen/prepackaged, service can be inconsistent and it's more expensive.

But regardless, we're still a long ways off before In-N-Out's palm trees can survive a Great Lakes winter.

Palms are already surviving in Cincinnati, OH unprotected per my zone pushing groups I am a member of.  That's a pretty far north push.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Palms are already surviving in Cincinnati, OH unprotected per my zone pushing groups I am a member of.  That's a pretty far north push.

Looks legit.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

I think when I last checked the last decade and a half or so in Detroit was running about the same as Cincinnati temperature-wise in the mid to late 20th century [1961-1990 average]. So probably just a couple more decades before the same is true there, should current trends persist unabated.

[Chicago Storm]

the warming is only going to accelerate, palms up to the up ez

doin’ pretty good around these parts at least.

[cyclone77]

No palms here, but the little northern red oak is showing sugar maple-like colors this year.