2023-2024 Winter Outlook

[weatherwiz]

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

[Go Kart Mozart]

On 10/29/2023 at 8:25 PM, weatherwiz said:

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

Good work Wiz, lot's of interesting detail.  I hope you-re right!

[dryslot]

On 10/29/2023 at 8:25 PM, weatherwiz said:

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

Nice read Paul, Lot of effort put into your outlook, Good luck.

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Good work Wiz, lot's of interesting detail.  I hope you-re right!

 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nice read Paul, Lot of effort put into your outlook, Good luck.

Thank you both. That was exhausting...never typing that much detail again

My base years BTW are 1957-1958, 1963-1964, and 1968-1969. Only negative I saw for 2 of these years was were tropical forcing was located, but I don't think tropical forcing signal is going to have significant weight overall. 

[weatherwiz]

I should also add...1986-1987 was on my list as a wild card in that if we don't get much blocking this winter may really suck

[stadiumwave]

On 10/29/2023 at 7:25 PM, weatherwiz said:

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

 

Really good analysis! My conclusions are very similar. 

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Really good analysis! My conclusions are very similar. 

I'm really hoping to spend some time studying the Arctic this winter...both with evolution and continuing to look historically. I also want to look into the other side of the hemisphere...from say eastern Europe through Russia. There is one teleconnection pattern I wanted to look into but I forget what it is. I don't think it was the East Atlantic - Western Russia pattern (EA/WR) or Polar Eurasia pattern...but maybe it was one of these two. But there was another one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 10/29/2023 at 8:25 PM, weatherwiz said:

I apologize for providing a blog link here, but it would be a major pain to transfer everything here into a post, also with the number of images I have, I don't even think I have the upload capacity. I absolutely regret how lengthy this became and you'll see towards the end I just got much lazier. I started typing this up at the beginning of October but I have limited time where I can do blog work. I absolutely don't expect anyone to read through all of it. 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2023/10/2023-2024-winter-outlook.html

Great work Wizzy!

[NEPASnow]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:28 PM, weatherwiz said:

 

Thank you both. That was exhausting...never typing that much detail again

My base years BTW are 1957-1958, 1963-1964, and 1968-1969. Only negative I saw for 2 of these years was were tropical forcing was located, but I don't think tropical forcing signal is going to have significant weight overall. 

Why wouldn't you weight tropical forcing in a strong el Nino? Keep in mind forcing is less important in weaker events.

[weatherwiz]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why wouldn't you weight tropical forcing in a strong el Nino? Keep in mind forcing is less important in weaker events.

I did weigh tropical forcing, but it wasn't a significant influence in my forecast. My goal coming into this was to not be heavily invested into the analog approach but take more of a hybrid approach. I was looking at the following (the order listed below is not order of importance or significance just a general listing)

1. ENSO strength 

2. ENSO evolution (are we headed towards modoki? has EL Nino peaked? will it strengthen)

3. SOI/MEI 

4. PDO evolution 

5. QBO evolution 

6. Tropical Forcing 

What I did was these 6 was work to eliminate certain EL Nino solutions. I was looking for historical EL Nino events which sort of fit the mold with how everything listed above was evolving. What I found difficult with the tropical forcing aspect was, the dataset for tropical forcing west of the dateline with moderate or stronger EL Nino's is virtually non-existent - that doesn't mean this can't happen, just means it hasn't happened yet. The good news is, for the EL Nino events in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline, there seemed to be a pretty high correlation to more troughing across the Northeast region. However, that signal weakens with some of the more recent EL Nino events and this could be tied into the emergences of modoki events. 

Also, at least in terms of ONI and SST's within the ENSO region, the structure of the tropical forcing isn't what you would see for a stronger EL Nino event. Many of the stronger events the degree of convection seems to be much more widespread across the equatorial Pacific while now its much more focused over a smaller area. 

Ultimately, I think it's going to be how the Aleutian Low materializes and how the Arctic materializes which are going to be the biggest drivers overall. Now I'm sure tropical forcing probably plays a role in this but the question is, how significant of a role? 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Finally read this after emerging from my outlook sabbatical....agree with the outlook...right down to strong el Nino acting moderate. But I think your ENSO orientation is off....not sure how you have 91-92 as a Modoki. It certainly was not...read mine and you will see why, as I spend alot of time on that el Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny, I guess 1979-1980 technically counts as an el Nino now, but I didn't use it. I feel like that is a recent development due to changing climo.

[weatherwiz]

On 11/12/2023 at 3:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Finally read this after emerging from my outlook sabbatical....agree with the outlook...right down to strong el Nino acting moderate. But I think your ENSO orientation is off....not sure how you have 91-92 as a Modoki. It certainly was not...read mine and you will see why, as I spend alot of time on that el Nino.

I'll have to read your outlook over the next few days. Weather is extremely quiet so I should be able to no problem. 

I read some literature which classified 1991-1992 as Modoki. I'll go and and read your thoughts but at when I was assessing the development, I could see why it was classified as Modoki. The greatest anomalies were always within the central Pacific and it appears the development of this EL Nino occurred in the central Pacific and built east at times. But if this is not Modoki...my hunch would be how this evolved between October-November where the stream off warmer anomalies actually developed within 1.2 and built west towards the anomalies in the CP. But to me at least it always seemed this was a CP EL Nino or a bit of a hybrid

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll have to read your outlook over the next few days. Weather is extremely quiet so I should be able to no problem. 

I read some literature which classified 1991-1992 as Modoki. I'll go and and read your thoughts but at when I was assessing the development, I could see why it was classified as Modoki. The greatest anomalies were always within the central Pacific and it appears the development of this EL Nino occurred in the central Pacific and built east at times. But if this is not Modoki...my hunch would be how this evolved between October-November where the stream off warmer anomalies actually developed within 1.2 and built west towards the anomalies in the CP. But to me at least it always seemed this was a CP EL Nino or a bit of a hybrid

Definitely hybrid/basin-wide, and those have a high degree of variance. Its actually one of the better EMI analogs, but it was much better coupled and evolved far differently in the polar domain than I expect this year to...due to differences with respect to volcanic eruptions, solar cycle and degree of el Nino expression.