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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a more Nino December look there at the end of ensembles sometime during the first week of December. Prior to that I don’t see any wintry events, but still possible some S/w flies by and gives a little. 

 

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A whole lotta meh as we look into the crystal ball 

In all seriousness I’m one of the most down individuals on winter around here, but meh doesn’t bother me in this instance. Near normal temps and no snow is fine in early December.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December will be mild, but I don't see being like a 2006, 2015 "turn out the lights, game over" type of anomaly....it should be a serviceable month.

Full on blowtorch through December would be hard to stomach, but to your point that’s not looking likely right now. My expectation remains that winter here begins in earnest after Jan 20, so anything close to normal in December is a win, as long as we’re not doing an epic torch Dec 23-26 lol.

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A sloppy 1" or so is what i'd expect for our area here tomorrow, Its just looks like we warm up quickly after the initial burst overnight, This one is for the foothills, mountains and up into the county, 3-6" and some 4-8" snow totals where it remains all snow for those areas as they look to hold on to the colder air being furthest away from the SLP track.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Also with this being MJO driven, some signs maybe this changes mid December. Just some early speculation. Still think sometime before Christmas we try to make a run.

 

I feel as if any time you want to bank on a 3-4-5 kick in a stronger Nino or a 7-8-1-2 kick in a raging Nina you usually end up seeing it be muted or never occur at all.  I'm still thinking we might see a lousier pattern for awhile but not sure it'll end up being MJO driven

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I feel as if any time you want to bank on a 3-4-5 kick in a stronger Nino or a 7-8-1-2 kick in a raging Nina you usually end up seeing it be muted or never occur at all.  I'm still thinking we might see a lousier pattern for awhile but not sure it'll end up being MJO driven

Might be a combo that delivers a GOAK trough for a time. But I don't see this as Dec '15 like Ray said earlier. Should be workable overall, especially interior.

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Only got down to 12-13 here - we're usually within 4-5° of BML on good rad nights, instead of nearly 10° less cold.  Latest clown maps put our area on the edge; 10 miles either way makes the difference between 1" and 6".  With poor CAD, we'll probably be closer to the first number, but still end up with the ground being white.

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like nrn ORH county probably could use an advisory. Maybe not everyone reaches it, but temps are like 34/24 in many spots. It won't get much warmer and may fall a couple after dark. Seems like a quick 2-4 near and above 1K isn't outrageous.

33 at home we pray

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